The women’s final has been set at Wimbledon. Ashleigh Barty, the World #1, is in search of her second Grand Slam title. She won the 2019 French Open but took off most of the last year due to unwillingness to travel for COVID. She might be light on match experience, but her talent and game are incredible. Karolina Pliskova, meanwhile, is a former World #1 who has yet to win a Slam. She also came into Wimbledon poor on form, but has reached the women’s final with an incredible fortnight. Who do you think will win this matchup? Our writers (Jim Smith, Andrew Watson, Jason Fernandez, Pablo Mosquera, and Yesh Ginsburg) share their thoughts.
Wimbledon Women’s Final Predictions
Ashleigh Barty vs Karolina Pliskova
This should be an excellent match. Largely because it’s one both players look like they have an good chance of winning. Pliskova has discovered a rich vein of form at this event, with her serve particularly impressive but her groundstrokes are also in good working order. Barty will need to find a way to deny the Czech rhythm if she is to win the title and there are few better at doing that than the Australian. But Pliskova has been hitting the ball so cleanly and playing with such freedom that she looks like the more likely champion on a court that rewards first-strike tennis.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
As someone who is on record as saying that Karolina Pliskova will never win a Grand Slam, this is a tough position to be in! The Czech has looked supremely confident all fortnight, which is a surprise as she came into the tournament with very little form to speak of.
This can’t be said of Ash Barty, though. She’s had a very good season after her year off, winning three titles, though she would be disappointed by grand slam showings until now. The Aussie has said that it’s a fulfilment of a childhood dream to play the Wimbledon final, but she’ll certainly want to emulate her hero Evonne Goolagong and go all the way.
Barty has a 5-2 H2H lead, including the last three, so should be favored. Pliskova did win their last grass match, but that was five years ago now and Barty is a different prospect. I believe that Barty will be able to get Pliskova off balance enough in the rallies to dominate those points and should be able to force enough of those points off the Pliskova serve for it to tip the balance in her favor. Pliskova’s serving this week has been awesome, but it’ll need to hold up in a Wimbledon final–not an easy task.
Prediction: Barty in 2
We came painfully close to our first Wimbledon women’s final between the top two seeds since 2002. However, Pliskova had other plans. The Czech, just like Hubert Hurkacz on the men’s draw, entered Wimbledon in ice-cold form but has managed to find her footing as the tournament progressed. Likewise, Barty’s level has improved each round. The pressure surely rests on the World No. 1’s shoulders. Will she deliver? I think so. Barty’s variety should prevail in the end. But lifting a second Major trophy won’t be easy for the Aussie.
Prediction: Barty in 3
It’s hard to believe Pliskova has made the final here, coming into Wimbledon with three straight losses. What’s perhaps harder to believe is that she’s out of nowhere played the best tennis of her career. Her draw up until the semifinals was no doubt kind, but in beating second seed Sabalenka to make the final there’s no question that her level of play is good enough to compete with anyone. Ash Barty will certainly get far more returns than anyone else has against the Czech so far this tournament–and move her around, exposing her weakness being as tall as she is. If Pliskova can keep up this level, though, and keep it together in the head I feel her first Slam might just be coming.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
Before the tournament–before the semifinals, even–I would have picked Barty without question. The Asutralian has the most versatile game in women’s tennis, and it can frustrate anyone and everyone. After watching what Pliskova did to Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals, though, I have to change my mind. Pliskova’s raw power was controlled and measured, and she hit her opponent off the court. Her serve is basically impossible to match right now–Barty’s slices and game won’t help her if she can’t start rallies. The power is too much, and Pliskova is playing the best tennis of her career. I like the Czech to win the first Major of her career–and if she keeps serving like this, there will be more, too.
Prediction: Pliskova in 2
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