The WTA Madrid Open day 5 line up is something to behold. Three-time champion Petra Kvitova is in action, as is home favourite Paula Badosa Gibert. However, the headline match is undoubtedly Ashleigh Barty vs Iga Swiatek. Both are carrying unbeaten runs on clay dating back to their respective French Open triumphs. The pair have looked in great form so far this week and the match is a truly mouth-watering prospect. We take a look at which players should move on to the quarterfinals in Madrid.
WTA Madrid Open Day 5 Predictions
Petra Kvitova vs Veronika Kudermetova
Head-to-head: First meeting
Kvitova looks like a real threat to win a fourth title in Madrid this week. The Czech last won the tournament in 2018 behind some similarly mind-blowing hitting. That same unplayable combination of power and precision has been on display this week too. She is yet to drop a set so far this week and dismissed a tough opponent in Angelique Kerber with relative ease last round. Kvitova is arguably the best hitter of the ball on the women’s tour when she is firing. Clay allows her the time she needs to get her long levers lined up properly and when she does the result is spectacular. Few can live with her at this level and if she maintains it she will be hard to stop.
Hoping to do just that is in-form Russian Veronika Kudermetova. The world #28 is enjoying a breakout season in 2021. She lifted her first WTA Tour title on the clay in Charleston a couple of weeks ago and is enjoying a career-high ranking as a result. Her straight sets dismissal of defending champion Kiki Bertens is evidence that she is still in a good groove in Madrid. Kudermetova is very strong off both wings when she is at her best. She has been guilty in the past of going for too much when her radar isn’t quite there. However, she seems to have addressed that this season which goes a long way towards explaining her rapid rise up the rankings this year. That being said, Kvitova is slightly better at everything than the Russian is at the moment. I think this will be close, but Kvitova should come through.
Prediction: Kvitova in 3
Belinda Bencic vs Ons Jabeur
Head-to-head: First meeting
Both of these players had to fight from a set down to book their place in the round of 16. Belinda Bencic survived a nail biter against Bernarda Pera while Ons Jabeur rallied from a set down to beat Sloane Stephens. Bencic hasn’t been at her best so far this year, but seems to be rapidly finding her feet. She cracked the top ten in the world in 2019 and deserved her place there on the back of a fine year of tennis. 2020 was less successful, but the Swiss remains a top ten talent when she is firing on all cylinders. She will certainly need to be if she is to beat Jabeur in this match.
Jabeur lost a title many feel she had in the bag when she fell to Astra Sharma two weeks ago in Charleston 2. She squandered a set lead in spectacular fashion then, but seems to be unfazed by the loss if her play in Madrid is anything to go buy. In her interview after defeating Sloane Stephens, the Tunisian said she feels like something big is coming her way. If she plays at her best I’m inclined to agree with her. Jabeur has more variety and shot-making ability than most on the women’s tour. Those tools are particularly effective on clay. If she can be disciplined and deploy shots from her bag of tricks only when necessary then she should advance here. The match feels like it is on her racket and so I must go with the Tunisian in this one.
Prediction: Jabeur in 3
Paula Badosa Gibert vs Anastasija Sevastova
Head-to-head: 1 – 0 Badosa Gibert
Badosa Gibert is undoubtedly one of the standout stories on the women’s tour this year. The young Spaniard made the semifinal in Lyon earlier this year and followed that up with a finals berth in Charleston 2. She is now into the round of 16 in a WTA 1000 tournament for the first time in her career. Badosa Gibert is fully deserving of her place as well, after brilliant wins over Barbora Krejcikova and Jill Teichmann. The Spaniard has been ultra aggressive this week and it suits her. If she can keep her confidence in her game and continue to go for her shots when under pressure she could be far from done in Madrid.
In her way is Anastasija Sevastova, a former world #11 who can seemingly play every shot imaginable when at her best. She hasn’t been there for some time now, but is showing signs of a revival in the Spanish capital. The Latvian has won four matches on the bounce so far this week after coming through qualifying. All four wins were against opponents ranked 116 or better as well which makes the run even more impressive. Sevastova is often her own worst enemy, doubting her game and decision-making abilities when it matters most. So far this week she has managed to avoid making those mistakes, but it will be a different story in this match against an in-form opponent. I think this could go the distance as well, but being at home and in such good form makes it hard to pick against Badosa Gibert in this match.
Prediction: Badosa Gibert in 3
Ashleigh Barty vs Iga Swiatek
Head-to-head: First meeting
Right, here we go then. Who wins this? How do you pick between two double-digit clay court winning streaks held by two French Open champions yet to lose a match on clay since lifting the trophy. Barty has the better serve while Swiatek has a more damaging if sometimes erratic forehand. on the backhand wing they share the spoils, with Barty’s slice compensating or Swiatek’s better two-hander. Ash Barty is the world #1 and that certainly counts for something. She has also won back-to-back titles in Miami and Stuttgart, so she is full of confidence. However, she looked vulnerable in Germany last week and had to come from behind in three consecutive matches there. She again dropped a set in her last match in Madrid, and I’m not sure she will get away with doing it again against someone of Swiatek’s quality.
The Polish superstar seems to get better with every tournament she plays. Her commitment to the mental side of the game is undoubtedly paying dividends this year, with her flawless run in Adelaide proving that she is more than just a flash in the pan. Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set this week. Nor has she dropped one in her last 9 clay court matches. That is some run and anyone who has watched her play knows that it is no fluke. Swiatek is for real and is a threat on every surface, but on clay in particular. Given Barty’s flirtation with losing recently and Swiatek’s sublime form on clay, I’m giving the edge to the young Pole. It could go either way, but I think the ball lands in Swiatek’s favour in this encounter.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
