2021 ATP Cup Final Prediction – Russia vs Italy

Andrey Rublev in action at the 2021 ATP Cup

After a week of high quality tennis that has seen the worlds best players representing their countries, the final of the 2021 ATP Cup is finally upon us. With defending champions Serbia and last year’s finalists Spain being knocked out of the event, the 2021 final is a great opportunity for both teams to win a major tennis trophy for their country. But which nation will come out on top?

ATP Cup Final Prediction

Russia vs Italy

With both countries having good strength in depth, this promises to be a fascinating final. The first match of the day sees the in-form Andrey Rublev take on Fabio Fognini. The unpredictable Italian got off to a shaky start against Pablo Carreno Busta, going down an early break, but Fognini soon found his form, timing his groundstrokes from the back of the court perfectly and dominating the baseline exchanges, rattling off six games in a row to take the first set 6-2.

However, after a brief delay in play due to the closing of the roof on John Cain Arena, the Spaniard had time to gather his thoughts, quickly breaking the Fognini serve and quickly taking the second set 6-1. The third set was a tight, with the Italian managing to win it 6-4.

Rublev, meanwhile, came through a tough test against Jan-Lennard Struff in the semifinals, dropping the first set 3-6 before going on to win the next two sets for the loss of only three games. Both players play a similar brand of baseline tennis, however Rublev has the better serve and is far more reliable in producing a consistent performance. The pressure will be high, however, the Russian has been one of the in form players of the week. Expect him to come through in three sets.

Prediction: Rublev in 3


The second singles match features a match of contrasting game styles, as the big-hitting Matteo Berrettini takes on Daniil Medvedev. After what was a disappointing 2020 season, the Italian has arguably been the most impressive player this week and is yet to drop a set, recording straight sets wins over Dominic Thiem, Gael Monfils and Roberto Bautista Agut. Berrettini possesses 0ne of the most powerful forehands on the ATP Tour, and with a useful serve that enables himself to get his forehand into play, he has the potential to overpower his opponents and dominate the rallies.

Medvedev has not produced his best tennis this week, but still managed impressive straight sets wins over Diego Schwartzman and Kei Nishikori, before rallying from a set down to beat Alexander Zverev yesterday. This match should be a close one, as the Russian is one of the toughest players on the tour to hit through, so the Italian will have to be patient in building the point and using his weapons at the appropriate time, especially because the Russian excels at absorbing pace from the other end of the court. This should go to three sets, but expect Medvedev’s consistency and variety see him get the win.

Prediction: Medvedev in 3

In terms of the doubles, both teams have strong depth to call upon, but the ability of the Italians to call upon as established Grand Slam winning pairing in Bolelli and Fognini means that they have the slight advantage.

Match Prediction: Russia 2-1

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