After six days full of action, we arrive in the final of the 2020 European Open. Unseeded 22-year-old Ugo Humbert will face off against the eighth seed, Alex De Minaur. Two talented youngsters will battle each other for the very first time. Humbert is looking for his second ATP title this year, while De Minaur will try to add to his trophy cabinet of three career titles at this level. Who do you got?
A breakthrough year
In January, Ugo Humbert captured his maiden ATP title in Auckland, defeating Benoit Paire in a third set tie-break. The young Frenchman’s progress wasn’t hampered by the pandemic break. Humbert impressed in the clay-court season, defeating players like Fabio Fognini or Daniil Medvedev. While his Roland Garros campaign ended in a disappointing loss to Marc Polmans, the indoor season was a hit again. Humbert played a great match against Andrey Rublev in St Petersburg, almost taking out the eventual champion.
But the real display of his talent came in Antwerp. After a solid performance against home nation player Kimmer Coppejans, Humbert had to face the 2nd seed, Pablo Carreno Busta. Despite losing the opening set from 5-2 up, the Frenchman was the better player throughout the match and managed to take the 5-7 6-4 6-3 win. He also showcased some great play under pressure, digging himself out of 0-40 holes twice in the decider. Humbert then proceeded to defeat in-form Lloyd Harris. In the semifinals, the 22-year-old faced Daniel Evans.
Struggling to deal with Evans’ slice and all-court style, Humbert fell behind 4-6 and 3-6 in the 2nd set tie-break. But as the Brit blinked for the first time in this match, the Frenchman was able to get into his head. At 7-7, Humbert blasted a wonderful “banana” forehand pass up the line that landed just before the baseline. With the momentum firmly on his side now, he was able to break Evans in the opening game of the decider and race to the finish. The match lasted 3 hours and 3 minutes. One more piece of evidence on Humbert’s brilliance this year is that if you count just the points earned in 2020, he is now sitting on a top 20 spot.
Clawing his way back into the tournament
Alex De Minaur had a great indoor season last year, finishing runner-up in Basel (Federer) and the NextGen Finals (Sinner). The Australian is widely known for his foot speed and court coverage, which allows him to run down almost every ball sent at him by the opponents. What allowed him to get even more success was improving his aggressive game, finding more free, shorter points in his own service games. De Minaur had a great run at the US Open, reaching the quarterfinals before getting dismantled by the eventual champion, Dominic Thiem. He then couldn’t win a match in any of the two clay-court events he played, on his definitely worst surface.
Getting started indoors wasn’t easy either as De Minaur found himself 3-6 3-5 down to Richard Gasquet in the opening round him. The Frenchman faltered and the 21-year-old found his way back into the match. From there on, we’ve witnessed a completely different version of Alex De Minaur in Antwerp. The youngster’s performances against Feliciano Lopez and Marcos Giron were displays of flawless counterpunching. A harder task came along with Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals. It was a total battle, with big momentum shifts constantly having either of the two in front. This 7-6 6-7 6-4 victory allowed him to make his seventh ATP final, first in 2020.
How will their games match-up?
The two have never faced each other before on the professional tour. Ugo Humbert will surely try to stay as the more aggressive player and try to utilize his versatility to finish the points early. Patient and precision will be the key for the Frenchman. Approaching the net will come in handy but the setups have to be more than accurate against De Minaur. The Australian’s speed, agility and flexibility allow him to chase down balls that are out of reach for almost any other tennis player.
It will also be very important for Humbert to try and gather as many free points as he can on his serve. The Frenchman’s first delivery was a bit up and down throughout the week. His 1st serve percentage oscillated around 58% and this number really should be higher against an opponent like De Minaur. The more 1st serves he hits, the lesser the number of prolonged rallies will be.
For De Minaur, it should be another match of trying to outlast his opponent. His own serve isn’t the best in the business but it’s been steadily improving. From time to time, it can also bring him a couple of free points or setup an easy forehand. Another important factor could be Humbert’s stamina level. After the 3h 13min clash against Evans, can we expect a great recovery from the Frenchman? And against De Minaur, one needs to be perfectly fresh to keep hitting aggressively. The Australian played for almost just as long in his semifinal, but the 21-year-old is widely known for his insane stamina and recovery ability. Humbert is yet to show he’s capable of such a turnaround.
The Australian also has more experience in finals. He seems more stable mentally than his opponent, who had a few nervous moments here or there this week. Anyway, this should be a very enjoyable championship match. It doesn’t have elite names, but a first-time meeting between two talented youngsters on the rise.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
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