We are up to the final of the ATP Adelaide International. Who will take home the trophy? Here are our thoughts.
ATP Adelaide International Final Prediction
Lloyd Harris kicked off his season at the ATP Cup, where he was the South African no.2 behind Kevin Anderson. A couple of closely contested losses to Dusan Lajovic and Gilles Simon were certainly not a bad sign. Harris also managed to score a win over Chile’s Nicolas Jarry. He then went straight to Adelaide, coming through qualifying with two straightforward wins over Mikhail Haliak and Stephane Robert. But it was only in the main draw that Harris started playing up to his real potential.
After a tight win over Christian Garin, Harris had two extremely good performances to beat Laslo Djere and Pablo Carreno Busta. The South African reached his second career ATP semifinal (Chengdu 2019) and faced another qualifier, Tommy Paul. Both competitors were serving very well on their way to the final four but it was Harris who dealt with his opponent’s delivery much better and won 41% of return points in a 6-4 6-7 6-3 win.
Andrey Rublev vs Lloyd Harris
In the Adelaide International final, Harris will face Andrey Rublev. The pair have never faced each other, but the 22-year-old Russian comes into the match as a big favorite. Having just taken his third ATP title last week in brilliant fashion, Rublev arrived in Adelaide with a lot of confidence. Although he might be getting a bit tired from his efforts now, one thing that can’t be overlooked is that Harris has actually spent a ton of time on the court too. While Rublev needed just three matches to get to the final here, Harris had to play both the first round and qualifying, which gives him six matches in Adelaide already. Dating to the start of the ATP Cup, Harris has actually played one more match than Rublev this year.
Coming back to Rublev’s route to the final, it was by no means easy. Sam Querrey, Daniel Evans, and Felix Auger-Aliassime all fell the victim to the Russian’s devastating forehand. The Canadian was particularly tough to beat and required just about three hours in absolutely dramatic 7-6(5) 6-7(9) 6-4 fashion.
As to the matchup, Harris will need to heavily rely on his serve. The South African hit 60 aces in his past four matches and he will need his delivery to be on that stellar level again. His second serve is also a much bigger threat than Rublev’s.
But that is probably where the positives end for Harris. Rublev is a much better mover and defender, which makes him more likely to come back from defensive positions to get on top in the rallies. The Russian also seems to have a much wider margin of error on his powerful shots and can construct the point much better than Harris, who often relies on that one big hit-or-miss blow. Rublev is also far more experienced in championship matches, having already played five of them on the ATP Tour. With all the confidence the Russian has at the moment, Harris is much more likely to flop under pressure.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
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