Day three of the 2019 Italian Open will see the completion of the first round, including Stan Wawrinka vs David Goffin and Daniil Medvedev vs Nick Kyrgios as well as the first matches of the second round, including the start of fourth seed Alexander Zverev’s campaign.
ATP Italian Open Day 3 Predictions
Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini
Head-to-head: Zverev 1-0
This pair met exactly one year ago in Rome in the second round. At the time, Berrettini was a massive underdog, little known outside of Italy. But now he is a rather different proposition after capturing two clay-court titles in the last twelve months, most recently the Hungarian Open. He also reached the final in Munich recently and is on the verge of clinching a seeding at Roland Garros. Another factor is also different from last year: Zverev’s form.
May, 2018 was the most fruitful period of the German’s career to date. He captured titles in Munich and Madrid as well as reaching the Italian Open final, which he lost, narrowly, to Rafael Nadal. However, so far this season he has struggled with personal issues as well as non-tennis commitments, which has badly hampered him. That said, he did play some decent tennis last week in Madrid, reaching the quarterfinals (lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas). It looks likely to be a close contest, but the slower conditions and the support of the Italian crowd should just give Berrettini the edge.
Prediction: Berrettini in three
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Daniil Medvedev vs Nick Kyrgios
Head-to-head: First meeting
The Russian is doing extremely well this season having won 25 ATP main draw matches. His clay-court form has been particularly impressive with Medvedev recently reaching the semifinals in Monte Carlo (lost to Lajovic) and the final in Barcelona (lost to Thiem). The Russian lost his opening match to the in-form Guido Pella in Madrid, but he is surely still full of confidence heading into the Italian Open.
His grinding baseline game seems destined to wear down Nick Kyrgios on clay, especially as the Australian looked like he was just coming for the pay cheque in his first-round match in Madrid, where he came up well-short against Jan-Lennard Struff. Perhaps he has just decided not to waste his energy on the red dirt this year, a not entirely unreasonable position considering his longstanding injury issues. Ultimately, regardless of Kyrgios’ mindset, Medvedev is a far more competent clay-courter. Expect that to prove decisive.
Prediction: Medvedev in two
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Stan Wawrinka vs David Goffin
Head-to-head: Wawrinka 3-1
A blockbuster clash in the first round. Expect a very high-quality encounter. Stan Wawrinka may have become something of a shadow of his former ‘Stanimal’ self, but there have been notable improvements in his game over the past few months. Indeed, of late he only lost to the very best players in the game and it’s hard to argue that David Goffin belongs in that bracket at the moment.
Wawrinka reached the quarterfinals in Madrid, impressing in defeating Kei Nishikori and Guido Pella along the way. At the Italian Open, the slower conditions combined with the immense power of the Swiss will likely make it very tough for Goffin to stay close to the baseline. And if Goffin is forced back, Wawrinka will almost certainly be able to dictate proceedings. Goffin, even at his defensive best, would struggle to find a path to victory in those circumstances. Thus, on this slow court and considering their respective form, it has to be Stan Wawrinka.
Prediction: Wawrinka in two
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Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Marco Cecchinato
Head-to-head: First meeting
The Italian faced an unexpectedly stern test today against Alex De Minaur. Make no mistake, although Cecchinato probably won’t return to the French Open semifinals, last year’s run happened for a reason. His game is tailor-made for this surface, his drop shot from both sides is a superb weapon and he’s right up there with the best when it comes to point construction on clay. Meanwhile, Philipp Kohlschreiber has been consistently playing good tennis this season.
A quarterfinal appearance in Munich may not look especially impressive, but he has faced some tough competition during the last month, which goes some way to explaining his slightly-below par results so far on the clay. Many see the German as a genius undermined by his mentality, but he can never be written off, (just remember his Indian Wells win over Djokovic two months ago). This one is extremely tough to call, but once again the advantage of playing on home turf should prove decisive for a player who will surely be desperate to gain some points to soften his likely fall in the rankings after Roland Garros.
Prediction: Cecchinato in three
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