For the last few years, most people have seemingly moved on from the likes of Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov–even calling them “the lost generation.” The reason simply being because they didn’t deliver the results many expected. This is all down to the promise they showed as teenagers: 17-year-old Dimitrov almost beat Rafael Nadal right after his Australian Open win in 2009, and 18-year-old Kei Nishikori beat World #4 David Ferrer in five epic sets at the US Open.
Nowadays all the focus is firmly on the generation after, the one which features the 2018 ATP Tour Finals winner Alexander Zverev, one of this year’s Australian Open semifinalists Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Borna Coric–who has defeated Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray twice each–among others.
The “Big Four” in the Way
With the Canadian, Japanese, and Bulgarian, the biggest issue that has stopped them winning Grand Slams is the “Big 4” (Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray). These four men have regularly beaten them (and everyone else) while dominating the sport. The generation which should have taken over winning Grand Slams many years ago simply couldn’t; they just weren’t good enough. The older guys still continued to dominate.
This is evident if you look at Milos Raonic’s two Grand Slam semifinal losses and his Wimbledon final loss; two were against Andy Murray and the other Roger Federer. With the Japanese superstar he’s actually lost to Novak Djokovic in the last two Grand Slams, the man who has gone onto win both. Unfortunately for him, he’ll play the Serb yet again in the Australian Open quarterfinals. Lastly, with Grigor Dimitrov, his two Grand Slam semis have come against Djokovic and Nadal, the former of which he almost took to five sets and the latter which he was merely points away from winning, close but no go.
Age Comes into Play
But just because these three men weren’t good enough to win Slams this past decade doesn’t mean that needs to hold for the future. With Andy Murray likely to retire this year and Roger Federer being 37 years old without a Grand Slam semifinal in over a year (with losses to Kevin Anderson, John Millman, and Stefanos Tsitsipas), the end is seemingly nigh. For Raonic, Nishikori, and Dimitrov, that’s half of one of the biggest problem stopping them from winning Slams already somewhat erased.
Then you have Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. We of course don’t know when they’ll stop winning Grand Slams, but what the others have on them is age. The younger of the two is Novak Djokovic; Kei Nishikori finds himself at just over two-and-a-half years younger than the Serb. Raonic and Dimitrov, meanwhile, are at three-and-a-half years and four years younger, respectively.
These age differences could well be a huge factor. Once Djokovic and Nadal look more vulnerable at Slams or retire completely, there’s going to be a gap to be filled. That will be when these three men need to use whatever they have left of their youth to deliver results and performances their older rivals are unable to match. If they can, then it’s likely they’ll be more than able to compete against the uprising younger generation, none of them look close to being consistently great just yet. Then the only issue left becomes staying healthy and fit.
Fighting Injuries
Raonic, Nishikori, and Dimitrov have been hampered with injuries and surgeries throughout their careers. From ending 2016 at World #3, Raonic found himself at #40 just last year due to a number of various injuries, such as with the elbow and thigh. In the Japanese’s case he found himself at World #4 in 2016, but due to a horrible wrist injury fell down the rankings with a horrible 2017. He even had to start his 2018 season at a Challenger event. Lastly, with Grigor Dimitrov, the man who won the 2017 ATP Tour Finals and ended the year at #3 behind Nadal and Federer, it’s almost the same scenario. Shoulder and ankle injuries have affected his game since the biggest event win of his career. Many early losses have occurred with his ranking dropping down to the low twenties.
There are good signs, though. Nishikori and Raonic are currently having big runs to the quarterfinals here in Australia. It’s even more encouraging that both are seemingly fully fit once again. The runs are even more impressive when you look at how they got here. The 28-year-old Canadian beat fourth seed Alexander Zverev and three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka en route. Meanwhile, Kei Nishikori has survived three five-setters in his four matches, with his body holding up flawlessly.
The Chance will Come
Many people right now automatically assume the new generation of Zverev, Tsitsipas, and others will take over once the usual names stop dominating. I’m not sure. Tsitsipas may have a few big results but overall he’s still very inconsistent. Zverev, for all his titles, can’t make a Grand Slam semifinal and struggles heavily in best-of-five set matches. Coric has never made even a quarterfinal at a Slam. Even the likes of last year’s Australian Open semifinalist Hyeon Chung struggle to remain fit and healthy.
Raonic, Nishikori, and Dimitrov just need to put themselves into position when the opportunity arises. If they can find the right mindset, put in the hard work, and stay injury free, it’s hard not to see at the very least a period, no matter how small, where they can’t give themselves the chance to finally win a Grand Slam.
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