Whereas on the WTA side the draw seems open as ever, with big chances for nearly anyone to make a deep run, the ATP situation at Roland Garros seems radically different.
Indeed, the hegemony of the four favorites seems quite ensured, with some big names who could challenge them already out of the tournament.
Honestly, who’s having least problems is definitely Rafael Nadal. After the titles in Barcellona, Monte Carlo, and Madrid, the big favorite for the title is without any doubt the Spaniard. La Décima seems affordable for Nadal. His biggest threat, up to the third round, seemed to be Benoit Paire, a local unpredictable player who could always play the best match of his life. Though, things really didn’t go that way, and the Spaniard eased past him in three quick sets.
Roberto Bautista Agut, a good clay court player who awaits Nadal in the fourth round, shouldn’t be a big problem for him, and then he could face Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals. Surely, his big serves are quite neutralized by the surface, and honestly I can’t see him troubling the Spanish player. Fortunately for him, Nadal avoided Grigor Dimitrov, semifinalist at the Australian Open, who exited the tournament early thank to his defeat against Pablo Carreno Busta.
Nadal’s potential semifinals opponent is going to be Novak Djokovic. The Serb’s quarterfinal was, on paper, the worst one. Indeed, he could face either Dominic Thiem, who defeated Nadal in Rome – causing him his only loss on clay this year – or David Goffin, who ousted Djokovic earlier this year in Monte Carlo. However, Goffin suffered a terrible injury today in his match against Horacio Zaballos, and was forced to retire during the first set. The Belgian badly fell after a slide, rolling his ankle, and left his match not even able to walk on his own. It was a terrible moment for him, and hopefully he recovers quickly.
Hence, the biggest threat for Djokovic remains Thiem. The Austrian already made it to the semis last year, defeated by Djokovic. However, since the Serb’s poor shape this year, and given Thiem’s enormous hype on clay, I’d say that, if this match up happens, Thiem is going to be the favorite. And I’d say this even though two weeks ago Djokovic destroyed Thiem in the semifinals of Rome.
Top Half of Draw
As far as the top half of the draw is concerned, the situation seems definitely more calm. #1 seed Andy Murray, who’s been struggling all year to get good results, has been struggling in the first rounds, too. Indeed, he lost a set both to Kuznetsov and Klizan, though he was thoroughly good to prevent the last one from taking also the fourth set, coming back from 2-5 and winning it in the tiebreak.
His third-round opponent is going to be Juan Martin Del Potro. On paper, this is definitely a though one. Though, physical conditions of the Argentinian are far from good right now, and honestly winning against the #1 in the world seems too much for Delpo. He also struggled with movements in the second round, though his opponent… struggled far more, and ended up retiring, after painful scenes.
With Rome’s champion Alexander Zverev out in the first round, the only trouble for Murray before the semis seems to be Kei Nishikori, his potential quarterfinal opponent. I totally wouldn’t be surprised if a dark horse will make it to quarterfinals in this section. Pablo Cuevas, Madrid semifinalist, is here, and has good potential indeed!
The last favorite Stan Wawrinka. The Swiss has the toughest third round, compared to the other three’s opponents. He is going to face Fabio Fognini, who defeated Murray in two easy sets in Rome a couple of weeks ago, and who shows his best tennis on clay. Wawrinka doesn’t seem unplayable, though he has appeared very focused since the very beginning of the tournament. Fognini needs more or less the match of his life, but he must be given some chances. As for the following rounds, Marin Cilic, the highest seed left, isn’t really a danger on clay.
To be honest, we will likely have the four favorites all reaching quarterfinals. If it isn’t so, then it will be because of a massive upset. And, let’s be fair… we all enjoy dark horses’ upsets!
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