Few would dispute that Red Bull have little chance of catching McLaren in the constructors standings. The papaya squad have a significant lead in the standings that, even if Red Bull improve, almost certainly won’t be overturned.
However, Max Verstappen remains an outside contender for the drivers Championship.
The Dutchman is still within 50 points of Oscar Piastri. Whilst this deficit is considerable, Verstappen is capable of closing the gap if Red Bull can eliminate the MCL39’s advantage.
The question is whether Red Bull can introduce updates that will put them in contention.
Until now, Christian Horner’s team have failed to make the necessary progress – and they are running out of time.
Red Bull will fully switch to 2026 development in the near future
This weekend’s Austrian GP will be the final race in the first half of the year.
This is significant because, starting from July 1st, teams are re-allocated their wind tunnel and CFD hours – which is determined by their position in the team standings.
For most teams, the decision to shift focus to the 2026 regulations is relatively simple.
Midfield outfits like Aston Martin, Williams and Sauber, have little to gain from investing further in these regulations.
Conversely, there is a lot of potential for growth with next year’s cars.
At Red Bull, beginning to focus exclusively on next year is a slightly more difficult commitment.
After all, without further updates to the RB21, the Austrian team would essentially abandon any chances of fighting for this year’s title.
On paper, missing out on the drivers’ title after four successive triumph is no reason for a panicked response.
However, with Red Bull facing an uphill battle in developing their own power unit for 2026, securing a title this year would be hugely beneficial in future negotiations with Max Verstappen – who is sought after across the field.
Helmut Marko reveals next Red Bull upgrades
Like many teams, the Milton Keynes squad have a series of updates for Austria.
Senior Advisor Helmut Marko has outlined Red Bull’s development plans for the next few weeks:
“We’re getting an update for Austria, which will then be further refined for Silverstone,” he told Kleine Zeitung.
“But if that doesn’t work, things will get difficult in the World Championship. And it’s not as if things aren’t difficult enough already.
“There’s a precise allocation of how the wind tunnel and all the tools are used. At some point, however, they’ll say – Okay, that’s it for further development.
“For two reasons – time, and the production of new parts takes time, and the cost cap.
“So the question is – Where do you allocate your resources?
“I assume after Silverstone or Spa at the latest, there will be a decision to focus entirely on the new car.”
Ultimately, Red Bull’s progress has been relatively limited for several years.
In the eyes of many, their decline began at last year’s Miami GP, when McLaren introduced their game-changing updates.
However, it should be noted that even in 2023, their progress was minimal – with Horner’s team benefiting more from the failures of rivals than their own breakthroughs.
Because of this, unless the next RB21 updates prove impactful enough, Red Bull are likely to cut their losses and focus on the 2026 regulations.
Main photo: Red Bull content pool
