The last few months have been extremely turbulent for Red Bull and their driver pool, even by their especially high standards.
Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda’s early swap remains one of the biggest developments of 2025, both for its short and long-term implications.
In terms of Red Bull’s chances of winning the constructors title, their abrupt driver swap effectively ended their chances.
By replacing Lawson and promoting Tsunoda mid-season, Red Bull committed to a tedious and complex learning curve to get the Japanese driver acclimatised in the RB21.
Beyond this year’s difficulties, the Milton Keynes outfit face big decisions about their young drivers.
With Arvid Lindblad waiting in the wings, Red Bull could make changes for the 2026 season.
Red Bull are excited about Lindblad’s potential
In many ways, Red Bull have not been especially excited about their academy drivers in recent years.
Lawson, for example, earned his F1 debut largely because of pure chance.
When Gasly left for Alpine, Red Bull explored three options – Herta, De Vries and Ricciardo – before signing the Kiwi.
Even then, Lawson’s debut was only a consequence of Ricciardo suffering an injury at the Dutch GP.
Because of this, Red Bull’s eagerness to promote him last year was somewhat of a surprise.
At the same time, it perhaps explains their lack of patience when Lawson languished at the back in Australia and China.
With Arvid Lindblad, however, their excitement and belief in his potential is undeniable.
The 17-year-old has been highly regarded by Helmut Marko and Christian Horner for some time – certainly more than any Red Bull juniors in recent years.
This motivated Red Bull’s request to the FIA for to give Lindblad a SuperLicense exemption, which was granted last month.
Lindblad is fighting at the very front in Formula 2 this year, which has validated the team’s prior belief in his abilities.
He is likely to compete in Free Practice sessions this season – as Red Bull evaluate his pace in F1 machinery.
Lindblad already completed tests in old F1 cars for the Austrian outfit earlier this year.
Space available for Lindblad promotion
The importance of timing is often underestimated in Formula 1. Drivers, both young and experienced, need to be at the right place at the right time to capitalise on certain opportunities.
Many Formula 2 graduates with the credentials for F1 miss out due to poor timing.
Lindblad, however, will not be obstructed by the time of his ascension up the junior ranks. If anything, his trajectory could not be better timed.
Historically, drivers who lose their Red Bull seats fail to make their way back to the main team.
From Pierre Gasly to Daniil Kvyat, demotion at the Austrian team is usually the beginning of the end.
In this sense, Lawson’s position is undoubtedly at risk.
If Lawson’s younger teammate Isack Hadjar continues to outperform him, it is difficult to imagine Red Bull delaying Lindblad’s progression for his sake.
Keeping this context in mind, there is a realistic path forward for Lindblad to join Formula 1 next season.
Main photo: Red Bull content pool
