After two years of relative dominance, Red Bull were comprehensively out-developed last season. Despite Verstappen’s success in claiming a fourth consecutive title, Christian Horner’s team ended the season a few steps behind McLaren and Ferrari.
Because of this, the task of establishing themselves as the reference in 2025 was always going to be difficult.
As it stands, Red Bull do not expect to have the fastest car – making relatively limited progress with the RB21.
Red Bull are not the favourites for round 1 in Australia
Traditionally, making assumptions on how much teams will progress during the winter break is risky.
Even during pre-season testing, when cars set their first laps of the year, differences in fuel loads and engine modes complicate analysis.
With that said, there were a few key takeaways from testing in Bahrain two weeks ago.
From the Red Bull perspective, there were a combination of positives and negatives. Though it must be said, the RB21 did not show the performance the team might have hoped for.
Christian Horner’s team confirmed that their 2025 challenger is at least a step forward from its predecessor.
Max Verstappen explained that his initial feeling in the car was more positive than last season. Some of last year’s limitations, which made the Red Bull difficult to drive (even for Verstappen) were improved upon.
However, the RB21 still appears to have inherited some of last season’s limitations.
Red Bull estimate 3-4 tenth improvement over the winter
Not only are there still some unfavourable characteristics on the RB21, but its long-run performance and peak downforce is also in question.
Compared to McLaren, for example, the Milton Keynes squad don’t appear to have closed the gap.
In an interview with Planet F1, Red Bull’s Technical Director Pierre Wache spoke candidly about the RB21.
The Frenchman explained that Red Bull estimate they have “roughly” gained 3-4 tenths over the winter.
Interestingly, reports from early February indicated that Ferrari and McLaren gained an estimated 5 tenths since last year’s final race in Abu Dhabi.
Whilst completely validating these estimates is impossible, these figures are consistent with the consensus after testing.
Red Bull are a few steps behind McLaren, who enter the Australian GP as unequivocal favourites.
A few more question marks follow Ferrari, although the SF-25 has shown flashes of potential. Should Fred Vasseur’s team optimise their new package, the Austrian outfit could find themselves fighting for podium positions.
There is also the inevitable Mercedes threat to consider. Although the W16 did not set the world alight in pre-season, the Silver Arrows showed encouraging pace in their race simulations.
The W16 was also one of the more stable and predictable cars in testing, despite the changeable conditions.
Max Verstappen told Viaplay about his expectations for the opening rounds:
“I think McLaren is the favourite if you look at the lap times. And for us, not everything went smoothly.
“On the other hand, I think we do have some ideas on how to improve the car.
“I’ve also spent a lot of time in the simulator… I don’t think we can compete for victory in Melbourne.
“But hopefully we will be able to make improvements within a few races.
“It’s never good enough, of course, but I think we expected a tiny bit more from it ourselves.”
