McLaren enter the 2025 season as firm favourites – especially in the constructors Championship. Thanks to their impressive trajectory last season, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri can have realistic title aspirations for this year.
However, this does not mean everything will be plain sailing for McLaren. At least one of Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull are likely to mount some kind of title challenge this season.
Only a few tenths separated the Woking squad from their nearest rivals at the end of last year. Even Red Bull managed to unlock some performance in the dying moments of 2024.
According to Lando Norris, the midfield group could also put themselves in a position to challenge at the front this year.
Why McLaren will not underestimate anyone
On paper, McLaren are the team whose development has been most effective over the last eighteen months.
Since the upgrade package they introduced at the 2023 Austrian GP, Andrea Stella’s squad has only climbed the field.
In an era where Mercedes, Ferrari, Aston Martin and even Red Bull have struggled with correlation issues, the papaya outfit have shown tremendous consistency.
Their wind tunnel has provided them with consistent and reliable data, meaning there have been no unexpected surprised regarding on-track performance.
Because of this, Lando Norris is aware that he is expected to fight at the very front in 2025.
Having missed out to Verstappen in last year’s campaign, this season will be a test of the British driver’s progression over the winter.
Still, this does not mean the 25-year-old is underestimating other teams in the paddock:
“I think it’s everyone’s expectation from within Formula 1,” he explained at the F1 75 event.
“Every year the rules don’t change, every time the regulations don’t change, it gets closer and closer,” Norris continued.
“That’s just the way it’s always worked.
“It already got pretty close at the end of last year, and you already started to see the middle pack [get closer]…
“Well, most of the grid apart from the top four teams… you already started to see them catching up and getting closer and closer.
“I probably only expect that to be even more the case over the winter and probably into this season,” Norris predicts.
“I think you’re probably going to have this season some winners that aren’t McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes or Red Bull. Which I think is good for F1 and is good for the fans.”
“I’m looking forward to it, because I think it’s not going to be just a fight of the usual guys. It’s going to be a bit different this year.”
McLaren burdened by pragmatism
Theoretically, McLaren’s MCL39 could have a big enough cushion over its rivals to avoid the unpredictability that characterised last year’s constructors battle.
However, this is a relatively unlikely scenario. The British team are likely to face stiff opposition in 2025 – forcing them into difficult decisions regarding 2026 resource allocation.
This is a problem that midfield teams like Aston Martin are unlikely to have. Therefore, their chances of disrupting Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri at the front are limited
Then again, McLaren know better than anyone else that one upgrade package can make a huge difference.
Whilst there are clear favourites in 2025, there is still the potential for a surprise.
