The narrative during last year’s title battle was that 2025 could be Verstappen and Red Bull’s last chance for a world title in the foreseeable future.
Broadly speaking, the Milton Keynes outfit were expected to struggle with the 2026 regulations. These concerns primarily stemmed from the engine side, given the complexity of producing an F1 power unit.
With that said, Red Bull’s engine is exceeding expectations so far. The RB22 completed extensive running in testing, encountering only a few hiccups in terms of reliability issues.
Unsurprisingly, team principal Laurent Mekies has pointed to other teams as favourites for 2026. However, Red Bull are widely seen as the biggest question mark heading into Australia this weekend.
Red Bull immediately hide their pace
Before the cars first went on track in testing, Red Bull were not seen as favourites for 2026. Whilst this might seem outlandish now, it was not uncommon for Aston Martin to be described as better positioned than Red Bull at the start of the winter break.
This sentiment stemmed from a belief that Red Bull would struggle to field a competitive engine.
This is not to say the Milton Keynes outfit was expected to be near the back. However, there was little confidence they could match established manufacturers like Mercedes.
Of course, there was some divergence in opinion. LWOS analysed Red Bull’s chances for the 2026 regulations some time ago and concluded that the team were capable of delivering a surprise.
This more optimistic forecast seems more aligned with reality. Ironically, it seems that Laurent Mekies’ team were slightly shocked by their own performance in testing.
When the RB22 completed its first laps, a few things were apparent. Not only had Red Bull Powertrains produced a powerful engine that could generate plenty of horsepower, but the engine’s electrical efficiency and harvesting was very strong.
According to some engineers int he paddock, Red Bull could be the benchmark in terms of harvesting energy.
Upon realising how competitive their engine was, Laurent Mekies’ personnel swiftly turned it down. Over the remaining weeks of testing, the RB22 was consistently at the bottom of the timing sheets.
Of course, this deliberate attempt to conceal performance did not go unnoticed by rivals. Mercedes have been particularly vocal about their suspicions regarding the Austrian team’s true speed.
Suggestions that Red Bull’s engine could be the best on the grid – though perhaps just mind games – are evidence that the Austrian squad are already giving rivals headaches.
Whilst it is impossible to say exactly where Red Bull sit in the pecking order, one thing is certain. The RB22 is seen as a threat.
The guessing game will soon be over
Putting engine performance to one side, Red Bull’s 2026 challenger also impressed with its aerodynamic characteristics. The RB22 was a compliant and consistent machine in testing, demonstrating a strong platform to start these regulations.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Max Verstappen is convinced that Mercedes have a huge amount of performance in reserve:
“I can tell you one thing. Just wait until Melbourne and see how much power the suddenly find – I already know.”
The Dutchman is not the only person to make this kind of suggestion about the Silver Arrows.
It is also suspected that the intensifying discourse surrounding the Mercedes engine compression ratio further encouraged the German manufacturer to limit their performance in testing.
Regardless, it would be a mistake to prematurely declare Mercedes as the fastest team.
Whilst Brackley-based operation’s power unit is still seen as the likely benchmark, their advantage is no longer expected to be as significant. Part of this shift in perception is the strong showing from Ferrari in pre-season.
However, an equally important factor is that – against all predictions – Red Bull’s power unit is to be taken very seriously.
The team’s objective over the winter break was very simple – deliver an engine that is close enough to give the aerodynamic and design departments a chance to close the gap.
As it stands, this target appears to have been satisfied. Even if Red Bull find themselves losing a few tenths per lap from the power unit side, this is still a relative success – given their inexperience as engine suppliers.
Looking to the entirety of 2026, the Austrian team fancy themselves to beat their rivals in a mid-season development race.
Even in a worst-case scenario, they are likely to be within striking range when the season commences in Australia.
