Ferrari failed to live up to the hype in the first qualifying session of 2025, as Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton could only manage P7 and P8 respectively.
The SF-25 looked strong during the first two parts of qualifying, but ultimately lacked the pace to match Red Bull, Mercedes and – most emphatically – McLaren when it really counted.
Although there are legitimate weaknesses to address, Ferrari are optimistic about their chances on race day.
Ferrari behind McLaren, but failed to optimise SF-25
Even before qualifying in Albert Park, Ferrari were not the favourites to take Pole Position.
McLaren, whose best efforts could not hide the MCL39’s excellent pace in testing, were always expected to be the reference this weekend.
The question was which team would be their closest challenger – and what the deficit would be.
For much of the weekend, Ferrari seemed like plausible candidates to fill this role. Both in qualifying and race simulations, the SF-25 was competitive in Friday Practice.
However, as seen in glimpses during testing, Ferrari’s 2025 challenger is a few steps behind the MCL39.
The SF-25 has also been prone to swings in performance, at least in the early stages of the year.
Even Mercedes appear slightly more stable, with a W16 machine that is proving more predictable than its predecessor.
Speaking post-session, Charles Leclerc admitted that Ferrari’s pace was disappointing:
“I mean the first lap was pretty good, the second lap wasn’t as good – it felt messy.
“But all in all, we just didn’t have the pace.
“I was trying to find more but that pushed me to do a few mistakes. The rear was quite unstable so we struggled quite a bit, which is a shame.
“Before coming here, we were definitely expecting to be on the back foot.
“But after the Friday, we thought that there was maybe a bit more pace in the car.
“At the end, it wasn’t the case.”
Ferrari prepared for wet conditions
In the build-up to this weekend’s action, the possibility of rain on Sunday has been relatively constant.
Most forecasts suggest rain will impact the race tomorrow, although there is some divergence on its intensity.
Curiously, the latest data suggests there will be less rain in Melbourne than first anticipated.
Regardless, it is understood that Ferrari made set-up changes on Friday in anticipation of wet conditions.
The Maranello squad made some decision that compromised their absolute potential in qualifying – in the hope of being better placed for adverse conditions in the Grand Prix.
Although Leclerc did not state this explicitly, he heavily alluded to running a set-up more compatible with the rain:
“The performance was not the same as Friday – I think I know why,” he told Sky Italy.
“We gave up something [in set-up]. The result is disappointing, but the season is long…
“The car has potential, but we were out of the window. In Q3 I didn’t find the feeling. With the rain, it will be an unknown.”
Of course, the Italian outfit’s adjustment to accommodate potential rain does not take away their shortcomings.
The SF-25 certainly has more potential than P7 and P8. Both Hamilton and Leclerc made mistakes in their final runs – cleaner laps could have put them in the top 5.
However, some of the vulnerabilities that emerged in testing have persisted.
With the 2026 regulations around the corner, Ferrari don’t have long to get a grasp on the SF-25.
Because of this, a stronger performance on race day – which could feature wet and dry spells – is essential.
