Starting the race from P17, Lando Norris may still have a run for glory in Baku.
McLaren are still the fastest team on the grid, contrary to today’s qualifying results in Baku.
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix Baku circuit is one of those circuits on the F1 calendar that are more about the driver than the car. Baku has the longest straight on the calendar and is filled with 90-degree corners, making the track unique and challenging.
Lando Norris himself was unable to overcome the challenge during today’s qualifying in Baku. While his teammate Oscar Piastri will start on the front row alongside poleman Charles Leclerc, Norris finds himself starting tomorrow’s race all the way back in P17.
The poor qualifying result from the Brit wasn’t entirely of his own doing though. Whilst in the dropzone, on his last fast lap in Q1, a yellow flag appeared, with Norris having to unexpectedly slow down. He went wide, and in turn, abandoned his lap.
“It will be frustrating. I don’t remember, I don’t think you have to slow down until the yellow flag. And by the time you reach the post, the yellow flag was off. He actually did not need to slow down. So that’s a little mistake. He also went off wide in the last corner. So it’s not even sure his lap time would have been that good,” – Jacques Villeneuve to Sky Sports.
Starting from P17 whilst in a title fight is quite the obstacle. However, there are some factors that are in Norris’ favour.
Baku’s nature
The most notable thing about the Baku circuit is its really long main straight. Not only is it perfect for slipstreaming, giving drivers an edge in qualifying, but it is also perfect for overtaking. With the slipstream effect, drivers can slingshot closer to the driver ahead, and ultimately get past them into Turn 1. This is where most of the overtaking action in Baku takes place.
With McLaren’s pace advantage, Norris can easily work his way up the grid. This is especially true as overtaking isn’t difficult in Baku, particularly on the long main straight, and Turn 1.
McLaren’s pace betters Verstappen’s
In the 2023 season, Max Verstappen showed us that starting from a low position was not as big a hindrance as we thought. The RB19 was undeniably quick. Its DRS advantage was impossible to fight against as well. Verstappen took full advantage of that and quickly worked his way up the grid when need be.
In Miami, he started the race in P9 but went on to win it. In Spa and COTA, he started in P6, again going on to win both races. The pace of the RB19 allowed him to reclaim the lead of the race with such ease. He won all the races with a comfortable margin between him and the next non-Red Bull car to cross the line. Such was the masterpiece Adrian Newey had provided Red Bull with, and such was the mastery from Verstappen.
Lando Norris has been granted the same advantage this season, only better. The MCL38 has proven to be faster than the RB19 was, and faster than the RB20 has ever been this season. In fact, in Zaandvort, Lando Norris won with a 22.9-second margin. This is something Red Bull have not been able to do in their dominant era. Such is the prowess of the 2024 McLaren car.
As Verstappen was able to charge his way up the grid on three different occasions last year, so should Norris this year. While the Dutchman still started within the points, the pace at which he was able to make headway suggests that Norris too will not struggle too much in his climb back to the points. Unless there is a pitstop mishap, questionable strategy, technical/mechanical failure or an incident during the race, Norris should be able to comfortably finish in the points.
How this affects McLaren
Should Norris finish in the points, McLaren will most likely be celebrating double points, despite one of their cars starting from the back. The ideal situation would be for both drivers to qualify in top positions and finish on the podium. However, they will have to settle for less in Baku tomorrow.
Oscar Piastri will definitely challenge Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc for the race win. Should the Australian come out victorious, McLaren will be overjoyed. It will be a good haul of points to help them in their charge for the Constructors’ Championship title. Even if Piastri does not win, a podium finish seems likely, and will still be a good haul of points from him for the team.
The goal for McLaren is to get their strategies right for tomorrow. Despite McLaren suggesting that they will be prioritising Norris over Piastri moving forward, their starting positions will need the team to abandon that for Baku. For Piastri, a race win is possible. However, for Norris, it is not. ‘Papaya Rules’ or harsher team orders will not be able to be played into effect in Baku tomorrow. McLaren will need to balance their priorities, assisting Piastri into a race win, as well as getting Norris into the points without too much hustle.
Norris will also need to ensure he does not crumble under the pressure. Starting from such a low position whilst in a title fight is berating to one’s mentality. The Brit will need to nail his start, leaving behind his tendencies of losing places on the first lap. He will also need to remain level-headed whilst charging up the grid.
Baku is already a challenge as is. However, for McLaren and Lando Norris, the word challenge is an understatement. Whether the Papaya family will get things right tomorrow is a tale yet to be told, and a tale that may well yet foretell the final standings of the 2024 F1 titles.
