Mercedes were the most in-form team a few months ago, winning three of the four races before the summer break. However, the W15 has struggled for performance in the events since then, even with the team’s recent updates. Mercedes have several theories to explain this – which is why there is uncertainty for this weekend’s Baku GP.
There are upgrades in the pipeline at Mercedes, but their impact on the W15 is unclear
Despite a nearly faultless development programme in recent years, McLaren have delayed bringing some of their upgrades to the track.
This hesitance stems from the inherently unpredictable nature of this generation of F1 cars – which has often left teams scratching their head after updates fail to deliver.
In this context, there are a lot of question marks at Mercedes. Their latest upgrade package, introduced at the Dutch GP, is yet to deliver a notable improvement to the W15’s performance.
The Silver Arrows have been relatively uncompetitive in recent weeks, both in qualifying and race trim.
However, James Allison and his technical team are still unsure if upgrades are responsible for this dip – or if circuit-specific characteristics are to blame.
Mercedes unsure about the reason for decline in pace
Andrew Shovlin, Head of Trackside Engineering at Mercedes, dissects the situation:
“The more difficult question that we need to answer is – is there anything subtle in the handling characteristics this package might be doing that we haven’t anticipated?
“That’s quite hard to assess because the car will perform differently [from] track to track. Some tracks it’s been working very well, other circuits we’ve struggled with the balance of the car regardless of the aerodynamic spec.
“Yes, the last two races haven’t been as good as some of the ones that preceded it. It may just be that’s the normal variation from track to track.
“But that’s what we’re going to be looking at over the next few days. On top of that, there are other updates that we’re bringing into the system.
“So there’s quite a lot to consider, but we do have a lot of data now. And we can go off and use the next few days to learn from that.”
Upgrades still arriving to the W15
Although the factory in Brackley has some doubts, upgrades are still on the way. Technical Director James Allison has been confident about the team’s trajectory throughout 2024. As the year has progressed, his conviction in the W15’s direction has proven well-founded.
Therefore, it is reasonable that Mercedes will not allow a sample size of two races to change their development plan.
With that said, Mercedes still need to tread carefully in the next few months. Baku and Singapore, the next two circuits on the calendar, are not traditional tracks.
Because of this, although data can still be collected, these venues can be outliers from a performance perspective. This will make it even more difficult for Mercedes to draw conclusions from their latest upgrades.
Not only does this impact the teams’ 2024 direction, but it also has repercussions for their 2025 car – which will be an evolution of the W15. Having turned things around since the beginning of last season, Mercedes must work to maintain their upward trajectory.
