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NASCAR Fantasy Picks for Dover’s Würth 400

Bubba Wallace, driver of the #23 McDonald's Toyota, Harrison Burton, driver of the #21 DEX Imaging Ford, and AJ Allmendinger, driver of the #16 Nutrien Ag Solutions Chevrolet, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Würth 400 at Dover International Speedway on May 01, 2023 in Dover, Delaware.

The NASCAR Cup Series will race the Würth 400 from Dover Motor Speedway on Sunday, April 28th. Who should you play in NASCAR Fantasy?

Dover, Delaware’s race will be the eleventh event of the 2024 season. 37 drivers look to conquer the concrete “Monster Mile” shortly after 2:00 pm ET (11:00 am PT). Television coverage will be available for cable viewers on Fox Sports 1. Radio listeners can tune in on either the Performance Racing Network or SiriusXM’s NASCAR Radio.

NASCAR Fantasy Live gives fans the chance to partake in driver selection each Cup Series race weekend. One will pick five starters and one “garage” driver per event. The garage driver will not receive any points but can replace a starter who may face trouble in the first part of the race. At the end of stage two, picks will lock, and no changes can be made. Points are awarded based on stage points and finishing positions in addition to four “head-to-head” driver picks. A driver may only be picked ten (10) times across the 26-race Regular Season and then five (5) times in the 10-race Playoffs. See NASCAR’s website here for rules of how to play.

My recommendations for Sunday’s event are NOT my personal lineup. Take a look back at my picks from last weekend’s GEICO 500 from Talladega Superspeedway. Below are my picks for the 2024 Würth 400 from Dover Motor Speedway.

RECAP – GEICO 500 @ Talladega


  • Chase Elliott – 7 uses left
    • 22 Place Points (15th) + 12 Stage Points (S1 – 2nd, S2 – 8th) = 34 Total Points
  • Joey Logano – 7 uses left
    • 18 Place Points (19th) + 10 Stage Points (S1 – N/A, S2 – 1st) = 28 Total Points
  • Ryan Blaney – 5 uses left
    • 17 Place Points (20th) + 7 Stage Points (S1 – 4th, S2 – N/A) = 24 Total Points
  • Michael McDowell – 8 uses left
    • 6 Place Points (31st) + 0 Stage Points (S1 – N/A, S2 – N/A) = 6 Total Points
  • Erik Jones – 9 uses left
    • 2 Place Points (35th) + 0 Stage Points (S1 – N/A, S2 – N/A) = 2 Total Points
  • Chase Briscoe – KEPT IN GARAGE, 9 uses left
    • 25 Place Points (12th) + 0 Stage Points (S1 – N/A, S2 – N/A) = 25 Total Points


  • Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney
    • PICK: Elliott
    • RESULT: Correct (Elliott = 15th, Blaney = 20th)
  • Corey LaJoie vs. Austin Dillon
    • PICK: LaJoie
    • RESULT: Correct (LaJoie = 18th, Dillon = 30th)
  • Daniel Suarez vs. Erik Jones
    • PICK: Jones
    • RESULT: Incorrect (Suarez = 26th, Jones = 35th)
  • Noah Gragson vs. Ty Gibbs
    • PICK: Gragson
    • RESULT: Correct (Gragson = 3rd, Gibbs 22nd)


  • Weekly Points = 124 PTS.
  • Total Season Points = 1917 PTS.
  • Collective Rankings = 5,068th (-699 positions from Texas)


PICK 1 – Martin Truex Jr.

There is always something to love when Martin Truex Jr. takes to the surface at Dover. His first career Cup Series victory came at the facility in the Spring of 2007 and has won three more occasions since. He enters this weekend as the defending race winner, and in the two Next Gen races, Truex Jr. has finished all four stages inside the Top 10 as well as hosting the second-best Average Running Position (A.R.P.). His consistency so far this season will likely transition into a track that stands as one of his statistical best.

PICK 2 – William Byron

Speaking of consistent drivers, William Byron has become one to execute on a regular basis. Although he has yet to claim the Monster Mile, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has finished inside the Top 5 three times in nine starts. A 4th place finish last Spring saw Byron lead a race-high 193 laps before falling off in the latter portion of the race.

Ten-lap and 15-lap averages ranking 1st in Saturday practice as well as a 3rd place qualifying effort for Sunday could be precursors to what could be a dominant day.

PICK 3 – Kyle Busch

Is Sunday the day for Kyle Busch to turn his season around? A lap of 22.196 put him on pole position for Sunday’s Würth 400, and the last time “Rowdy” started from the pole, he went on to secure the checkered flag (World Wide Technology Raceway, 2023). Rain canceled qualifying last year and the No. 8 did start from the pole, but an early speeding penalty was never followed with recovery.

Busch enters Dover with the fourth-best Top 10 percentage finishing rate (60.0%) and the second-most laps led (1,341).

PICK 4 – Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson has a sneakily impressive resume at Dover. The former Series Champion has finished all but two NASCAR Cup Series races outside of the Top 20. Last season, Larson was running in the Top 5 before getting caught up in a wreck that ultimately resulted in a 32nd-place result. Nonetheless, he holds the best average finish of all entered drivers of 8.6 as well as the best Top 10 finishing rate of 73.3%. Larson also has led more laps at Dover than any other racetrack.

Look out for the 2021 Series Champion.

PICK 5 – Ross Chastain

Statistics are askew at Dover for Ross Chastain, but recent performances have shown that he is a name to watch in Delaware. Since joining with Trackhouse Racing, the rising talent finished Top 3 in both track starts. Chastain won the second stage in 2023 and is one of only three drivers (Martin Truex Jr., Chris Buescher) to secure stage points in all four opportunities. He is also the only athlete to have led over 85 laps in each of the last two races.

Chastain will start deep from 22nd on Sunday. Will he make your NASCAR Fantasy lineup?


Chase Elliott

  • Two-time Dover winner (2018 Fall, 2022)
  • 3rd-best average finish in all track races (9.8)
  • 6th-best ten-lap average after Saturday practice

Alex Bowman

  • 2021 track victor
  • Five Top 5s in 7 starts with Hendrick Motorsports
  • *Missed 2022 race due to injury

Ty Gibbs

  • A.R.P. of 13.0 in only Dover start
  • 3rd-ranked ten-lap average in Saturday practice

Denny Hamlin

  • 3 of 4 stage finishes inside Top 10 driving Next Gen
  • 7th-ranked A.R.P. in last two races with laps led in both events


Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

  • 10th-best A.R.P. in Next Gen at Dover (11.45)
  • Finished 2nd in 2022 running (best finish since 2022 aside from 2023 Daytona 500 victory)


Bubba Wallace

  • Nine Dover starts without a Top 10 finish
  • Has never earned a single Dover stage point (18 opportunities)

Michael McDowell

  • Third-lowest average finish of active drivers in all Dover races (30.6)
  • Only one Top 20 with Front Row Motorsports in nine track appearances

Jimmie Johnson

  • All-time Dover winner (x11); however, 29th-ranked ten-lap average in Saturday practice
  • Five Next Gen races since return with no finish better than 28th


Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Busch

One driver brings the momentum while one driver does not. Tyler Reddick enters the Race 11 as the most recent NASCAR victor having won with his last-lap pass at Talladega. He also has tallied his longest stretch of Top 10s to date. Meanwhile, Busch has not finished better than 9th since Atlanta Motor Speedway in Race 2.

I may have answered this in the first sentence, but due to track history, I will go with polesitter Busch.

Alex Bowman vs. Ross Chastain

The closest pairing on the board. Although he missed the 2023 event, Alex Bowman’s A.R.P. of 6.80 in the Next Gen ranks 2nd. Who is at the top of the statistical board? Ross Chastain, with an A.R.P. of 4.05. Bowman appears to have a little more speed for Sunday’s event with a qualifying effort of 9th atop Chastain’s 22nd.

Although “Melon Man” is one to show up late, Bowman is my pick for Sunday.

Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott

A NASCAR Fantasy matchup of Hendrick Motorsports teammates. Kyle Larson was mentioned as a must-start while Chase Elliott was included as an alternate choice. Of the 37 drivers entered for the race, Larson and Elliott are ranked 1st and 3rd, respectively, for all-time average finish and all-time Top 10 percentage ranks at Dover.

Maybe Elliott can pull something out of the hat, but Larson appears to be the safer pick this weekend.

Denny Hamlin vs. Christopher Bell

The final battle sees another pair of allies. Denny Hamlin has the 7th best Next Gen A.R.P. at Dover (9.55) while Christopher Bell clocks in not far behind at 11th (11.75). Hamlin leads with one career track victory in 2020, but Bell is one of only two active drivers with Dover Top 10s in both Next Gen races.

This is another tight duel, but I like Hamlin and team to execute the better overall day.

What is your NASCAR Fantasy lineup for Sunday’s Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway? Tweet us @LWOSMotorsport. Stay tuned here at LWOS Motorsports for NASCAR news, results, updates, and more.


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