Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix saw Mercedes F1 secure their 27th one-two finish since the V6 turbo hybrid era of Formula One began 52 races ago. It was their 45th victory of this era as well. They may seem invincible, but the Brackley-based team has managed to not take the silverware on a few occasions. Other drivers were able to pounce on mistakes, reliability, car setup, poor strategy or a bit of bad luck. With regulation changes coming in 2017, many hope that the likes of Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren-Honda and Renault will be able to challenge the Silver Arrows. In the meantime, why are Mercedes so strong and just how can they be beaten?
Mercedes’ Strengths
The Mercedes F1 team started very early on their car for 2014, and more importantly on their power unit. Their novel power unit design allows for a tightly-packaged car. This allows for a better chassis without losing performance from the power unit or having too much risk with reliability. They started the 2014 season with the best combination on the grid. Only once have they been beaten by outright pace. Combine that with two very good drivers in Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, and there is a combination which appears impossible to beat.
Mercedes’ Key Weaknesses
Despite having perhaps the most reliable package on the grid, the Mercedes power unit has failed on a few occasions. Five times in 2014, three times in 2015, and twice so far in 2016. In addition crashes between the two rivals led to losses in Belgium in 2014, Hungary in 2015, and Spain in 2016. Strategy also cost a win in the 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix. Car setup saw them beaten in Singapore last year. Deployment of the safety car at the wrong time harmed Rosberg’s chance of victory at Hungary the year before. So yes – Mercedes F1 are beatable, but it seems as if exceptional circumstances are required to knock Mercedes of their perch.
Other Notable Weaknesses
Unlike Ferrari, Mercedes have never really been particularly strong at starts. Notably this year, they have been very weak from pole position, with the pole-sitter leading coming out of the first corner just three times this season from a standing start. Despite having the quickest machine, the Mercedes has never appeared to be that strong in dirty air. However, they are on pole much more often than not. Unless a bad start happens, it’s rare that they have to tackle dirty air.
Is 2017 the best Chance to Better the Mercedes F1 Team?
Whilst Red Bull are expected to challenge Mercedes at Singapore and perhaps Japan, it seems unlikely that the Silver Arrow will be beaten again this year. This would see them take a staggering 20 victories from 21 attempts. Unless the circumstances discussed above take place, the best hope the other teams will have of toppling Mercedes will arguably be by focusing on next year. The 2017 season will see drastic changes to the chassis and the tyres. On paper, this should play into the hands of Red Bull more so than Ferrari.
The changes for 2014 certainly put more emphasis on outright power unit performance over the chassis than the era before. That is expected to change next year as mechanical and aerodynamic grip look set to increase drastically whilst the power unit regulations remain largely unchanged. However, it may be unrealistic to think that Mercedes could slip drastically down the order in 2017 and beyond. Now is the prime moment for teams to go full-steam ahead on developing their chassis for next year and hope that they can produce something better than what Mercedes can.
However, things may not be smooth sailing for Ferrari. Especially after losing the highly talented James Allison due to personal reasons. This means that a talented car designer must be found and quickly if there is any chance of out-developing Mercedes over the winter. Despite a technical reshuffle in the wake of Allison’s exit, the Scuderia Ferrari team still appears to be lacking on an aerodynamic front.
More Contenders
Other teams which could have a very strong 2017 are McLaren-Honda and Renault. Both have switched focus early on this year to their 2017 chassis whilst continuing to develop their power units. McLaren’s progress despite Honda starting their power unit development 18 months later than the rest has been quite impressive. However, it is unclear as to whether that development will continue at such a pace into 2017.
As for Renault, they have been vastly off the pace this season and are only slipping further down the order. However, 2017 could be a huge year for them. A lot of investment has gone into this project. It is not yet clear as to whether or not they could be towards the front of the pack next year. Uncertainty over the driver line-up will not help development. On top of that, they are experiencing issues with their power units.
Beating Mercedes F1 in 2017 will be tough. If pas issues resurface, they can certainly be beaten. This requires other teams to stay strong and capitalize. Whether this can happen across a season or not however is yet to be seen.
