“The best way to recover from an event is to respond.” Jedd Fisch opened his Thursday press conference with emphasis on his team’s opportunity to respond to last week’s loss. “We had our first bout of adversity… now we have to see how this team responds.” Fisch called it the best week of practice that the team has had all year. “[The] Big Ten Opener… it’s a pretty unique and exciting experience for everybody.”
Washington opens Big Ten play on Saturday at home when the Northwestern Wildcats visit Husky Stadium. This contest will be just the fourth meeting between the two schools all time. All three previous meetings were in the early 1980’s, and Washington has never lost to the Wildcats.
The Opponent
Former Mississippi State quarterback Mike Wright started the first two games for the Wildcats. He was teammates with Will Rogers III a year ago, but head coach David Braun made a change in week three. Looking for the team’s first passing touchdown of the season, he gave Jack Lausch the keys to the offense. Lausch threw two passing touchdowns against Eastern Illinois with 227 yards.
The Wildcat offense features three returning players who registered 700-plus all-purpose yards in their previous year. Michigan transfer AJ Henning is one of them. He had 927 yards in 2023 and has 20 catches and a touchdown this season. Running back Cam Porter is another, and he has been the workhorse this season for Northwestern. He’s averaging north of five yards per carry and has three touchdowns in three games.
Northwestern’s Strength on Defense
Northwestern plays a lot of quarters and shell coverage defense. It’s a group under eighth-year defensive coordinator Tim McGarigle that tries to take away the run game by utilizing its defensive backs. Four of their top five leading tacklers are defensive backs. Safety Devin Turner and cornerback Theran Johnson have been on the field for 183 snaps each and have combined for 32 tackles. “They have an identity,” Fisch said. The Washington head coach praised David Braun for his successful Big Ten Coach of the Year campaign last season. “A lot of that [success] has to do with the defense that he put in, and how he got those guys to believe.”
The Wildcats have defended the run at a high level this season. Statistically, Northwestern is allowing just 2.34 yards per carry and 57.7 rush yards per game. That number ranks sixth nationally. They also have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. In addition to the scheme, linebackers Xander Mueller and Mac Uihlein are a big part of Northwestern’s run defense. Mueller leads the team in tackles with 20 so far. Uihlein has three sacks on the season in as many games.
It’s a defensive front for Northwestern that figures to make things difficult on Washington’s run game. After back-to-back 100-yard games to open the season, Jonah Coleman was largely quiet against Washington State last week. He had the 29-yard explosive run to open the second half. But outside of that, Coleman averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. The Washington offensive line struggled to create push consistently, and the run game didn’t quite find its footing. Saturday will be another test for Washington’s line of scrimmage.
Sustaining Drives
On offense, the Wildcats have struggled to sustain drives this season. Porter is averaging those quality 5.5 yards per carry and has broken off seven runs of 10 yards or more this year. But as an offense they have been inconsistent. Northwestern ranks 96th nationally in offensive available yards percentage with a 36.7% rate in non-garbage time situations. This metric measures how many yards an offense gains in relation to the total available yards per drive. For the Wildcats, they are leaving nearly 65% of their yards to go out on the field. This equates to third downs and short possessions. And when Northwestern gets into third-down situations, things start to tighten up.
Washington’s Advantage
Northwestern’s 38 third-down attempts this season are about average in college football. But the Wildcats rank 109th nationally in third down conversion rate converting on just 12 of the 38 attempts. That 32% conversion rate has been largely due to the third and long situations they’ve been in. Northwestern averages 8.2 yards to go on third down, and that’s not a spot you want to be in against Washington.
On the flip side, the Huskies have done a solid job this year of forcing opponents into third-down situations. Steve Belichick’s defense has forced 43 third downs, only allowing 13 conversions. On third and long, we’ve seen Washington frequently go to a six-defensive back look. They also bring their defensive backs up to the formation to create speed pressure on the edges.
Will Rogers and the Pass Game
Though the Huskies lost the Apple Cup last week, it was arguably Rogers’ best game as a Husky. He threw for over 300 yards and connected on 74% of his passes. Rogers recorded the second-longest average depth of target in a single game in his career of 9.9 yards. That all came against a defense that produced the most quarterback pressures he’s seen all season with nine.
“Schematically, we’ve always been that type of team,” Fisch said on Thursday, referencing Rogers’ downfield passing success. “When you’re a play-action team, a lot of times you create more chunk plays.” Out of the play-action, Rogers is averaging 12.5 yards per attempt this season. His adjusted completion percentage is 85% on those passes. The Huskies have run play-action only about 35% of the time this year with Rogers under center. But in terms of downfield yardage, the offense is certainly generating those chunk plays through the air with the play-action.
The Mississippi State transfer has yet to throw an interception this season and has six passing touchdowns. “Will [Rogers] has done a really good job of understanding what we want in this offense,” Fisch said. His accuracy is in large part to do with his timing in the pocket. Fisch said that his quarterback has been able to move his feet in the pocket to help with that timing. “If you have great timing and accuracy, then usually you can catch the ball on the move.”
Down Field Passing
Northwestern will be, statistically, the best passing defense that Washington has faced thus far. It allows 214 passing yards per game. However, the Wildcat secondary has been susceptible to the big play through the air. The team’s starting cornerbacks have each allowed north of 100 yards receiving on the season through three games. As a team, Northwestern has allowed 30 pass plays of 10-plus yards, 107th nationally.
“Guys like Giles Jackson, Denzel Boston, do a great job when the ball is in the air,” Fisch detailed. Jackson lines up in the slot and has yet to drop a pass thrown his way. He has been targeted 24 times and has 24 receptions for 326 yards and a score. On Saturday, there’s an opportunity for this to continue.
Final Score Prediction
Washington’s passing success against Northwestern will hinge upon the test the Husky offensive line will see upfront. The Wildcats’ run defense is quality, and they like to get the entire defense involved in making a stop. Transitioning into the Big Ten quality run defense is going to be a common theme. Washington gets its first conference test at home on Saturday night.
Washington – 20
Northwestern – 13
