Steve Maraboli once said, “You cannot continue on the same path and arrive at a different destination.” Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders have started the first half of each season with a 3-3 record in the previous two seasons. However, this slow start feels different. A survival win against an FCS opponent in week one and a lackluster loss against Washington State last week. McGuire has been visibly frustrated in press conferences having to field questions about his team’s struggles. But a Texas Tech week three game against a spunky North Texas team from the AAC presents a unique challenge. If the Red Raiders aren’t ready, the Mean Green have a chance to derail Texas Tech’s season completely.
Injuries Mounting Already
Unfortunately for Texas Tech, their injury report is already resembling something closer to what a late-season report would look like. Offensive lineman Vinny Sciury became the third Red Raider who suffered a season injury in 2024. Two defensive starters are already ruled out for this game and another nine are questionable. That group of nine includes starting running back Tahj Brooks, who missed the game last week. The good news for the offense is McGuire said on Tuesday that Brooks is “trending in a good way to be ready to go on Saturday.”
Defense Has To Be Better
When asked about what has to change in his weekly press conference, McGuire didn’t mince words about his defense. “…it has to start with us getting better on defense…You’re not going to win games being 129th in the country on defense. And that’s me. I’m a defensive coach. I’m embarrassed by the way we’re playing defense.” McGuire’s comments continued to illustrate this was not him throwing his defensive coordinator Tim DeRyter under the bus. There have been plenty of calls for McGuire to abandon his “Book” when it comes to aggressively going for it on fourth down. I shared some thoughts on that early in the week.
It’s understandable to discuss if he needs to alter his philosophy slightly. After all, Washington State had five touchdown drives in the game last week. All of them started within the Washington State 49-yard line as the result of three failed fourth-down conversions and three turnovers. But this is also the same defense that surrendered over 600 yards of offense to an FCS program the week before at home. McGuire’s comments on the defense are warranted.
The Mean Green Can Score
This Texas Tech week three showdown with North Texas will quickly put the defense to the test. The Mean Green are having their best start since 2018. Their offense has amassed 1,054 total yards in wins against South Alabama and Stephen F. Austin. Quarterback Chandler Morris has let the ball fly in the two games, throwing for 737 yards and seven touchdowns. Morris, a two-time transfer, has been thriving under former Red Raiders’ offensive coordinator Eric Morris, who is in his second season as North Texas’ head coach.
But the North Texas defense has been about as leaky as the Red Raiders’ defense has been. They have allowed 58 total points and 830 yards of offense in their first two games. The offense, which was rightfully criticized for the turnovers and penalties against Washington State, still moved the ball a bunch. Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley’s squad currently ranks 16th nationally in total offense, averaging 516 yards a game. The offensive line has been significantly better than last year. According to PFF, this unit (which includes four transfer starters) has been the 14th-best pass protection line in the nation. Quarterback Behren Morton’s play can only go up from last week (because if it doesn’t, now there is a new crisis afoot).
Execution Is More Important Than Game Plan
As good as North Texas has looked offensively, this is a team in which the (on-paper) talent is significantly behind Texas Tech’s. The last four national composite rankings of the Mean Green’s recruiting classes are 69 (2024), 99, 119, and 78 (2021). For reference, Texas Tech’s have been 25 (2024), 28, 43, and 75 (2021). This Texas Tech week three game has shaped up to be a defining point in the season. The problems this team has had in two weeks have been glaring. Slow starts in the past two seasons have had their fair share of frustrating losses. However, they did not feel as if there were glaring issues in some of the most basic areas of football.
There isn’t a focal tactical point the Red Raiders need to hone in on. The defensive communication looked much improved last week and it didn’t matter much. Offensive woes from last week are well-chronicled at this point. This game is a “put up or shut up” moment for this team. In a game in which they have a decided talent advantage, Texas Tech must execute with a higher level of consistency. The penalties have to come down and both sides of the ball must take advantage to put the game away when they can.
Texas Tech Week Three Prediction
McGuire’s brand that he has been promoting from day one has been his team will be the “toughest, hardest working, most competitive team” in all of college football.” The home crowd at the Jones needs to be given a reason early to get back behind this team. A slow start at home will cause uneasiness in the crowd that will make its way onto the field.
However, this should be a highly motivated Texas Tech team ready to right this ship. This is the exact moment in which McGuire’s brand should shine through. His team has heard for a week how bad they have been. New advanced projections for the season are forecasting a 3-9 type season. If they can’t get it done this week, then those projections look more like reality. But this team knows what type of pressure they are under and should respond accordingly.
Texas Tech 49, North Texas 31
