With a Texas Tech week seven win over Kansas State, the potential of where this season goes could align with preseason expectations again. The Red Raiders’ slow start essentially eliminated a Big 12 title birth before a campaign could get started (barring absolute chaos). But, a win against a tough Wildcat team means that an eight-win regular season (the most since 2009 and only the seventh time in the last 40 seasons) would be back in the grasp of Joey McGuire’s squad. However, in order to get there, the Texas Tech defense is going to have to play its best game to date.
Get Past the Mental Hurdle
Admittedly, it’s a bit of a loaded question to ask how Kansas State has won seven consecutive games against Texas Tech. It certainly isn’t because Kansas State has out-recruited Texas Tech. In fact, the Red Raiders have been slightly better on the recruiting trail. In the last four years, Kansas State has finished with recruiting class with national rankings of 62, 57, 54, and 63. During that same time span, the Red Raider’s recruiting classes were ranked 46, 55, 47, and 65. Despite different coaches involved in the last seven years, the results have remained the same.
Four of those seven victories by Kansas State have been by seven or less. The largest margin of victory in the past seven years is only 15. Going back even further, Kansas State has won the last 11 of 12 against Texas Tech. The seven consecutive victories are the longest winning streak by either team in this series. Whatever the reasons we might want to assign for the one-sidedness of this series, the biggest issue facing the Red Raiders is mental. So what area needs to step up for them to clear this massive mental hurdle?
Heat Up Wildcat Quarterback and Rushing Game
A Texas Tech week seven victory is going to need to look similar to the Baylor win last week. Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter must have been saying to himself “Finally!” when this game ended. His defense absolutely smothered Baylor all night. But it is unlikely for this game to look as one-sided. Chris Klieman’s team is built on a tough rushing attack. Currently, the Wildcats rank 19th nationally in rushing at 202.8 yards per game. The rushing attack starts behind a senior offensive line and one of the best offensive linemen in the country, Cooper Beebe. Running back DJ Giddens takes advantage of his stellar linemen unit as he is averaging just under six yards per carry. Quarterback Will Howard also has made major contributions to the rushing attack. He is averaging just over six carries and a tad over 55 yards per game.
Howard’s biggest weakness is he is prone to throwing the ball to the other team. He has had at least one interception in every game he has played this season, including three last week against Oklahoma State. The Wildcats do not have a game-changer at wide receiver. Texas Tech’s defense has to turn the Wildcats into a one-dimensional attack. That can be done by controlling the line of scrimmage and keeping those first-down runs to two yards or less. Last week against Baylor, the Red Raiders had 11 tackles for loss and kept Baylor to 17 yards rushing. Keeping behind the sticks will give the defense multiple opportunities to take the ball back from a new-look offense.
Embrace New Offensive Identity
When offensive coordinator Zach Kittley was hired to McGuire’s staff, everyone saw the video game-type numbers his offenses were producing at Western Kentucky. But one thing McGuire noted early in his tenure was the pledge to make the offense fit to the personnel of his team. This year’s Red Raider offense has shown McGuire is keeping true to his philosophy. The rushing attack, spearheaded by Tahj Brooks, is the cornerstone of this year’s offense. Just how different has this offense been? The Red Raiders have now won two straight Big 12 games when throwing for less than 200 yards for the first time since 1999. So if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
With the attention Brooks is now getting, it will provide multiple one-on-one opportunities for quarterback Behren Morton to exploit. Morton’s touch and accuracy have been on display for the last two weeks. So far he has not had to win the game for Texas Tech. And as long as Brooks keeps cooking, there is no reason to think Morton will be.
Texas Tech Week Seven Prediction
If Texas Tech is going to end its losing streak to Kansas State, the Red Raiders are going to have to earn it. The Wildcats will be coming into the game with a little extra rest and will be looking to prove last week’s loss to Oklahoma State was a fluke. On the flip side, for Texas Tech to take the next step as a program, it has to win these games. With a homecoming win, the Red Raiders would start 3-1 in Big 12 play for the first time since 2018. It would also improve their home record to 9-2 under McGuire. A motivated Wildcats team is about the last thing most Big 12 opponents want to see. However, the new Red Raider offensive attack combined with two timely turnovers, gives the home team the slight edge needed for a hard-fought victory.
Texas Tech 31, Kansas State 30
