Enough realignment talk! The 2023 college football season kicks off in three weeks. It is time to focus on the season at hand. In Lubbock, the media continues to shine a brighter and brighter spotlight on head coach Joey McGuire. No question, McGuire’s first full season as Texas Tech head coach was a smashing success. In year two, there are many things to like about this Red Raider team. McGuire did not shy away from the mounting expectations at Big 12 Media Days. With expectations looking very similar to 2008, what is the Texas Tech ceiling and floor in 2023?
Glance At Schedule
Undoubtedly, the Red Raiders’ opening weeks will quickly give everyone an idea of what this season can be.
- Week 1: at Wyoming
- Week 2: Oregon
- Week 3: Tarleton State
- Week 4: at West Virginia
- Week 5: Houston
- Week 6: at Baylor
- Week 7: Kansas State
- Week 8: at BYU
- Week 9: Bye
- Week 10: TCU (Thursday)
- Week 11: at Kansas
- Week 12: UCF
- Week 13: at Texas (Friday)
Of note, it is fascinating that other than weeks two and three, the Red Raiders will alternate home and road games the entire season.
Texas Tech Ceiling: Historical Season
While Wyoming has been a pesky Mountain West team in recent years, McGuire and Co. handle their business in Larmine as they shift to what will be a matchup of two top-25-ranked teams in week two. In their only two meetings in program history (1991-1992), Texas Tech has never scored more than 13 points against the Ducks. Even with a talented Oregon team, led by fifth-year quarterback Bo Nix, the Red Raiders have the offense humming on all cylinders. With the win, Texas Tech will continue to build national momentum. But with Texas/Alabama and Texas A&M/Miami playing the same week, the coverage still remains tampered by bigger storylines. Tarleton State is a good opponent for many of the second and third-string players to get reps as the starters look to go into Big 12 play healthy.
Emerging Heisman Campaign
Quarterback Tyler Shough, who remains healthy for the first time in his college career, continues to put up massive numbers in Zach Kittley’s offense as the Red Raiders roll past West Virginia and Houston. Texas Tech then travels to Waco and is locked into a four-quarter battle with the Bears. But thanks to a late sack/fumble/fumble recover by “The Mayor” Tony Bradford Jr., Texas Tech moves to 6-0. The Red Raiders play off a prime-time crowd in Lubbock to take down the defending champion Kansas State Wildcats and move to 7-0. The national hype is officially real. With a bye week closely approaching, and the inevitable letdown after such a massive win, Texas Tech stubs its toe against BYU in Provo and drops its first game of the season.
However, the bye week allows this team to re-focus. They continue to eye the Texas Tech ceiling this program has yet to reach. A national Thursday night game against TCU sees the breakout performance of wide receiver Jerand Bradley. He erupts for 150 yards and three touchdowns against the Horned Frogs. Kansas and newcomer UCF provide little resistance as Texas Tech enters the last week of the season at 10-1. In what starts out as a “win-and-in” game for a spot in the Big 12 championship, Texas (who beat Alabama early in the year) plays at its best and takes down the Red Raiders 48-45.
But thanks to some wild results on the last Saturday of the regular season, Texas Tech backs into the Big 12 title game for a rematch one week later. In Arlington at Jerry’s World, the Red Raiders exact revenge on the Longhorns and secure their first Big 12 title in program history. Shough gets an invite to New York for the Heisman trophy, but ultimately falls short to Marvin Harrison Jr. Texas Tech accepts a bid to the Sugar Bowl against LSU. Here, the Red Raiders exercise their 2015 Texas Bowl demons and take down the Bayou Bengals in their back yard wrapping up the greatest season in program history.
Texas Tech Floor: Expectations Are Too Much
Traveling to 6,000 feet above sea level is not a great place to start. But with hunting season still in session, the Red Raiders survive a sloppy performance against Wyoming and escape with a seven-point victory. Trying to excuse their week one game as a case of “looking ahead to Oregon”, Texas Tech comes out sharp early against the Ducks. But in a turn of cruel fate, the football Gods have Shough suffer yet another collarbone injury in the 2nd quarter of the game against his former teammates. Backup Behren Morton plays admirably in relief, but Texas Tech falls to the Ducks. Morton takes over starting quarterback duties for the rest of the season.
Tarleton State and West Virginia don’t provide much stress as Texas Tech moves to 3-1. But Donovan Smith returns and delivers one of his quintessential “put the team on his back and win the game single-Handley” against his former team in Lubbock and knocks Texas Tech out of the top 25 as they fall to 3-2. Baylor appears to have bounced back after a disappointing 2022 and serves up back-to-back losses to the Red Raiders.
Struggling To Get Back Bowling
Kansas State comes into the Lubbock looking exactly like a team capable of winning a Big 12 championship. The Wildcats ruin homecoming for all Red Raider alumni in attendance. The wind is officially out of the sails for this Red Raider program. The team that received first-place votes to win the conference before the season drops a fourth straight in a nail-biter against BYU. But McGuire’s “Brand” never falters. This team has shown fight all year but just hasn’t put it together. However, the bye week breathes new life into the team. TCU comes to town and runs into a buzzsaw as the Red Raiders snap their losing streak. That momentum builds as they take down Kansas in Lawrence the next week.
However, once again looking ahead a week, UCF comes into Lubbock in the first matchup ever and takes down Texas Tech on senior day. With their bowl lives on the line, do the Red Raiders extend their season? Texas already has secured a spot in the Big 12 championship. So Texas Tech puts together the pieces one last time and upsets the Longhorns on Black Friday. A 6-6 record would be very disappointing considering preseason expectations. But a win against the Longhorns on their way out would still leave Red Raiders fans feeling happy about the season.
Where Will Texas Tech Finish?
It is safe to say Texas Tech has never been here before. Even in 2008, the Red Raiders were never referred to as more than just a sleeper team. Plenty of the national media has actively made their pick that the Red Raiders are going to win the Big 12 this season. McGuire’s limited sample size suggests that he and his coaching staff will be able to handle all the outside noise. However, this team is still lacking the depth to really challenge for a conference championship. It is going to require some very good luck on the injury front for the Texas Tech ceiling to be even obtainable. But while the outside noise will only build with each victory, this team should use it as momentum. They will fall just shy of the Big 12 championship game, but finish with a 9-3 record.
Photo courtesy: Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK
