It will be a reunion of familiar faces as Iowa makes the trip to Purdue this weekend. Former Hawkeye wide receivers Charlie Jones and Tyrone Tracy Jr. joined the Boilermakers this past offseason looking for better opportunities in a more established passing offense. Jeff Brohm took over at Purdue in 2017, and his offensive passing numbers have been among the top two in the conference every season since 2018. The team has averaged 320 passing yards per game in that time frame.
Iowa on the other hand has yet to average more than 200 passing yards per game in a single season since the 2019 season. It’s clear that the better opportunity existed in West Lafayette for these two wideouts. Saturday’s matchup featuring the Purdue passing game and Iowa’s top-rated coverage defense will add to the enticement of the familiar faces on the two sides of the ball.
Explosive Passing Threat
Big Ten Leading Receiver Charlie Jones
In just nine games with the Purdue Boilermakers, Jones has 72 catches on 97 targets for an average of 8.7 yards per target. His 72 receptions are second-most in the nation among wide receivers. He has six games with more than 100 yards receiving and has scored nine touchdowns on the season. Jones is the Big Ten Conference’s leading wide receiver, averaging 105 yards per game. There are even talks of the former Hawkeye earning a Biletnikoff semifinalist spot, the award given to the most outstanding wide receiver in college football. Jones’ 840 reception yards so far this season is the sixth most in the FBS and more than doubles his career total yards receiving during his two seasons at Iowa. It’s safe to say he has found his home in West Lafayette in the Brohm offense.
Century Mark Receivers
Since 2017, Brohm and the Boilermakers have won four of the last five meetings against the Hawkeyes. That includes last year’s upset of the then-second-ranked Hawkeyes inside Kinnick Stadium. In each of those five games, Purdue has had a receiver tally at least 120 yards and a touchdown. David Bell was the workhorse for the last three seasons in that department. Anthony Mahoungou and Terry Wright were the beneficiaries in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Bell had three 100-plus yard games against Iowa. Mahoungou and Wright had one such game each. On average, a Purdue wide receiver has recorded 168 yards and two touchdowns in every game against Iowa during the Brohm tenure. History points to that happening for the sixth season in a row. If so, Jones is likely to be the next name on that list.
Boilermaker Bye Week Preparation
Last year in Iowa City, Purdue utilized three different quarterbacks. Current starter Aidan O’Connell took the majority of the snaps, but they brought in Jack Plummer and Austin Burton to supplement the run game. The quarterback rotation was an unexpected twist to the Boilermaker offense last year. This year, Purdue enters the Iowa game off of a bye week and will be well-rested for their sold-out crowd on Saturday. It would not be surprising to see Brohm implement something that is not yet on tape to gain an advantage against the Hawkeye defense.
Hawkeye Coverage Defense
If Iowa wants to flip the script on their track record against Purdue receivers of late, they’ll need to lock down Jones. The Hawkeyes have the top coverage defense according to Pro Football Focus with a 94.2 overall grade. Only one receiver recorded north of 100 yards on the Hawkeye defense this year. It was Ohio State’s Julian Fleming who did so on two receptions. Iowa’s defense is 10th nationally in pass yards allowed per game with 172. They only allow 5.3 yards per attempt, good for second least nationally. Phil Parker’s secondary is among the best in the nation and will be well-prepared for the test this weekend. However, Purdue has shown their ability to break the Hawkeye pass defense in recent years.
Johnson and Williams on the Ground
For the Hawkeyes to find success against Purdue on Saturday, a lot of it will have to begin with the defense. On the other side of the ball, Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams will need to establish themselves in the run game. Johnson had the majority of the carries last week and the offense was in rhythm behind his solid performance on the ground. He averaged 7.2 yards per attempt on 13 carries last week. Williams has been getting the other half of the touches this season with similar stats on the year to Johnson.
Last season, the Hawkeyes gathered just 76 rushing yards on Purdue for a mere 2.5 yards per attempt. The Boilermakers were able to make Iowa one-dimensional, and they struggled to get back into the game. Iowa’s pass offense has regressed since last season and it will be even more imperative to make Purdue respect the run game.
In the first game of the 2020 COVID season, Iowa rushed for 195 yards and 5.4 yards per attempt against Purdue. The offensive line was able to control the line of scrimmage for the majority of the contest. Then the pieces fell apart in the back half of the fourth quarter resulting in a loss. The year before, Iowa averaged 3.3 yards per rush and surpassed 100 yards on the ground en route to victory. The Boilermakers have shown they can score quickly against even the best Iowa defenses in recent seasons. To be in a position to win on Saturday, Iowa needs to control the line of scrimmage and time of possession while moving the ball on the ground.
Familiar Faces Reunite in Iowa and Purdue
The head-to-head history between these two teams clearly favors the opposition in the past five seasons. Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes have just one win in that time frame, coming in 2019 at home. Purdue is 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings.
This week, the model makes Iowa a short, 3.2-point underdog on the road with a 44-point total. The sportsbooks are currently giving the Hawkeyes around 4.5 points with a slightly lower total teetering at around 40 points. The under has been successful in four of the last five meetings. If it stands, this year’s points total would be the lowest closing total in that time frame.
Points in this game are going to stem around Iowa’s ability defensively to limit the passing game of Purdue. O’Connell is averaging a Big Ten-best 324 passing yards per game. That’s nearly 30 yards more per game than CJ Stroud in second place. Iowa’s defense has been great in the passing department recently. But with Purdue’s tendencies and their history against Iowa, it would not be surprising to see Jones and the Boilermaker offense stretch the field.
