It took until the third week of the season for Iowa to eclipse double digits on the scoreboard. They did it with a shoutout victory against Nevada in a game that lasted six hours and 58 minutes with three lightning delays. Ultimately, it was health at the receiver position and a step up in the run game that helped the previously stagnant Hawkeye attack gain some momentum last weekend.
On Saturday, the Big Ten opener takes the Hawkeyes out east to Piscataway, New Jersey under the lights. Rutgers enters the contest 3-0 with two one-possession victories over Boston College and Temple. Sans blowout victory over Wagner, the Scarlet Knights’ other two wins came by a combined three points. In each of their three victories, Greg Schiano’s team has been stout in run defense and has found an offensive identity in the run game. This weekend’s game features two punters from down under as Iowa visits Rutgers in their first Big Ten test of the season.
Scarlet Knights Defense
The matchup inside SHI Stadium on Saturday Night will feature two of the top statistical defenses in the Big Ten thus far. Rutgers has allowed just 97 total rushing yards in three games while giving up a mere 1.09 yards per attempt. Much of their success can be attributed to their first-year defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak. Though it’s a small sample size, Harasymiak has transformed a defense that allowed an average of 420 yards per game since the 2018 season, to one that has allowed just 240 per game in 2022. Harasymiak was the safety’s coach and co-defensive coordinator for Minnesota between 2019 and 2021. He has seen this Hawkeye team in each of the last three seasons but has not had success stopping them. Iowa scored an average of 28.3 points per contest against his defenses since 2019.
Middle linebacker Deion Jennings has stepped onto the scene for the Scarlet Knights’ defense through three games. He has emerged as the nation’s top rush defender at the linebacker position according to Pro Football Focus. In Jennings’ first full year as a starter, he is currently tied for the team lead with 18 tackles on the season. Helping him out on the edge is Wesley Bailey. In what’s also his first year as a starter, Bailey has 2.5 sacks and 13 quarterback pressures in three games this season.
Iowa’s offensive line had a better performance against Nevada, but this matchup with Rutgers will be a true test. Pro Football Focus ranks the Scarlet Knights as the top rush defense in the nation. For the Hawkeyes to have success against Rutgers, they’ll need to establish themselves at the line of scrimmage. It starts with containing both Jennings and Bailey.
Rutgers Quarterback Carousel
Through three games this season, Rutgers has experimented with a few different quarterbacks. Evan Simon has attempted the most passes and leads the group with two touchdowns on the year. Gavin Wimsatt had been splitting snaps with Simon this season before leaving last week’s game with an injury. He’ll be a game-time decision on Saturday. Former quarterback turned tight end Johnny Langan has also completed a pass this season for Schiano’s offense. The team awaits another game-time decision from Noah Vedral, their starter in each of the last two seasons, who has not played this year with an undisclosed injury.
This quarterback carousel presents a lot of diversity for the Hawkeye defense in terms of preparation. They mix a passing attack with a dual-threat option depending on who is in the game. Wimsatt has 117 rushing yards on the year through two and a half games, averaging nearly 11 yards per attempt. When Simon is in the game, the offense drops back to pass 46% of the time, while Wimsatt’s dropback percentage is just 30%. If Vedral is healthy, it’s likely he gets on the field for the first time this season as well. His tendencies fall into more of a passing category, dropping back on over 50% of his snaps in 2021. No decision has been made in terms of a starter for Saturday.
Despite the quarterback carousel, Rutgers’ run game has been their bread and butter this season. The team is averaging 5.6 yards per rush and has scored eight rushing touchdowns on the season. Kyle Monangai leads the team with 36 rush attempts. He is joined by three others, including Wimsatt, with over 100 rushing yards on the season. Al-Shadee Salaam is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, while he, Monangai, and Samuel Brown V have two touchdowns each.
Forcing One Dimension
Uncertainty about which quarterback will take the field for Rutgers poses an interesting preparation strategy for the Hawkeyes. The one area that can help Iowa regardless of who is under center is their ability to take away one of the phases of the Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights are going to want to run the ball. They’ve been successful in that department thus far in 2022. On 90 first down plays this season, Rutgers has opted to pass just 18 times. Of their 68 second-down attempts, just 33% were passes. On those rushing attempts, Rutgers has gained an average of 5.67 yards on first down and 5.02 yards on second down. Needless to say, their run game has been very successful on the first two downs this season.
On the other side of the ball, Phil Parker’s defense has been really good at creating passing down situations through three games. When opponents have tried to run the ball on first and second down, the Hawkeyes have allowed an average of 2.98 yards and 1.28 yards, respectively. If Iowa can continue this trend, it will put the Scarlet Knights in several must-past situations, an area where they haven’t been as comfortable. Forcing a one-dimensional offense out of the Scarlet Knights will carve a path to victory on Saturday. This could, however, include containment of a dual threat quarterback, depending on who is in the game. So far this season, Iowa has given up a negative net rushing yardage to quarterbacks. Two of those signal-callers were even classified as the “dual threat” variety.
Punters from Down Under
This weekend’s matchup will feature one of the more elite punting showcases in the nation. Both Tory Taylor of Iowa and Adam Korsak of Rutgers are from Melbourne, Australia, and have brought their skills from Australian rules football to the Big Ten.
Taylor has punted 23 times for 1,100 yards this season in just three games. 14 of which have been downed inside the 20-yard line, and just six were returned for a combined total of 22 yards. Korsak has punted just 12 times, pinning opponents inside the 20 on five occasions. More impressively, not one of his punts has been returned. It would not be a surprise to see a punting clinic under the lights on Saturday night. With two teams that are playing high-level defense right now, combined with their run game tendencies, this one could be a field position battle until the end.
The Model’s Prediction
In a new feature for Big Ten games, we’ve developed a model to generate probable game outcomes and point totals. This week, the model has the Hawkeyes as three point favorites in what will likely be a very low-scoring affair. Sportsbooks have this total as low as 34 points, while the model is at 37.5. Rutgers has shown tangible improvements this season and will be a stingy test for Iowa’s offense. The group eclipsed the 300 total yard mark last week in their shutout victory over Nevada. The spark on offense was much needed and seemed to get things in the right direction. Iowa has traveled to Piscataway just one time, coming away with a 14-7 victory in 2016. This year’s contest will likely be very similar in a low-scoring, defensive battle, featuring two punters from down under.
