A steady buzz of electricity has remained around this Red Raider football team after their thrilling win over the Iowa State Cyclones. But for this Texas Tech week 12 matchup, the challenge to build on a successful season does not let up. Oklahoma State comes to town as what appears the Big 12’s remaining hope to make the playoff. Can the Red Raiders play spoiler?
Major Look Ahead For Cowboys
It is all in front of Oklahoma State Cowboys. Win their last two regular-season games and win the Big 12 championship, the Cowboys are all but assured a spot in the playoff. But that critical season finale is Bedlam. Frankly, that rivalry game is about as predictable as the sun rising. Mike Gundy is 2-14 against the Sooners. Oklahoma has won the last six against its in-state rival. Oklahoma’s overall record in this game is 90-18-7. It’s hard to see a truly locked-in Oklahoma State team coming to Lubbock.
Build Upon Bowl Season Birth
Thanks to that Jonathan Garibay 62-yard field goal, Texas Tech will be participating in bowl season for the first time in three seasons. While a projected trip out to the desert in Arizona will still be a major accomplishment, Tech could still position itself for a more marquee bowl game with another win. Doing so is going to require solving the toughest defense they have seen to date. Any team defensive statistic for the 2021 season will show Oklahoma State near the top.
Total defense? They rank third nationally, only allowing 282.8 yards per game. Scoring defense? The Pokes rank either nationally, surrendering only 16.4 points per game. They lead all of FBS in sacks (37). They are tied for second in the number of tackles for loss per game (7.7) They have had 17 quarters of football this year in which their opponent scored zero points. Texas Tech has to find an answer offensively against a team that essentially is limiting its opponents to only score in one half of a game.
Offense Has To Start Fast, Keep Throttle Up
One area the Oklahoma State defense has shown to be less dominant is in the red zone. They are tied with Alabama for 93rd nationally in the percentage of red-zone possessions that result in points. When teams have found a way to get in the red zone against Oklahoma State, those teams have got points 87% of the time. To secure a Texas Tech Week 12 upset, the Red Raiders need chunk plays early in their possessions. Playmakers like Erik Ezukanma, Tahj Brooks, and SaRodorick Thompson have to make at least the first tackler miss every time they touch the football to give this offense an opportunity. Interim head coach and offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie needs to let Donovan Smith take some deep shots early to stretch the defense.
Oklahoma State does not possess a very explosive offense. They have only scored over 32 points twice this season. Eliminate the scores against Kansas and TCU, the Cowboys average only 25.5 points per game in their eight other games. That number ranks 89th nationally in scoring offense. Forcing Oklahoma State to play catch up is going to do two things. The offense will be put in a position it clearly hasn’t been comfortable in (scoring in bunches and from behind). And to make matters worse, with all of the potential achievements within the grasp of Oklahoma State, that external pressure is going to make the scoreboard deficit feel even larger than it actually is. If Texas Tech can take a lead into the locker room at halftime, they will win this game.
Texas Tech Week 12 Prediction
It is going to be a dynamic and lively crowd for the home finale for the Red Raiders. New head coach Joey McGuire has been blazing on the recruiting trail and there is an expectation that a ton of recruits will be present for this game. A primetime kickoff only adds to the upset recipe the Red Raiders are looking to cook up. But Texas Tech is facing truly its most physical test yet. Oklahoma State’s stop rate (percentage of defensive drives that end in punts, turnovers, or turnover on downs) is 79.1%. That high percentage is good for the sixth-best nationally. The Red Raiders will continue to show fight in front of the home crowd, but come up two-to-three plays short.
Oklahoma State 28, Texas Tech 24
