In its fourth true road game of the season, Washington will enter a fourth sold-out, color-themed stadium. It was a blackout at Rutgers, a black and gold striped crowd at Iowa, and a red-out at Indiana. On Saturday night, Washington will suit up for the famous Whiteout at Penn State inside Beaver Stadium. “This will be the largest crowd any person on our team has ever played in front of,” Jedd Fisch said this week. The first-year coach at Washington realizes the significance of the environment at Penn State on Saturday night. One win from bowl-eligibility, the Huskies have a tremendous test in front of them.
Penn State’s Run Game
Penn State’s run game is not flashy, but the way Andy Kotelnicki uses it to set up the offense is impactful. The Nittany Lions’ explosive rush rate is very low, just 4.5%. But its rushing success rate is very high at nearly 48%. That’s good for eighth-best nationally. This shows that the Nittany Lions are good at taking what the defense gives them in the run game. It’s not an offense that’s going to break off big gains on the ground, but it’s going to be efficient in keeping drives alive. This run game is a major contributor to Penn State’s possession efficiency which ranks 11th nationally. Kotelnicki’s offense can get what it needs on the ground to open up passing opportunities where it can be explosive. As such, Penn State’s passing success rate is third-best in the nation at 54.6% on the season.
The challenge for Washington is going to be in getting the Penn State rushing game off schedule. The Nittany Lions run the ball about 59% of the time. The duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton keep the backfield fresh. Quarterback Drew Allar is a threat with his feet as well. He’s third on the team with 44 attempts this season and had 10 against the Buckeyes a week ago. There are a lot of angles for the Washington run defense to defend, and it’s an area it’s struggled this season. The Huskies’ stuff rate is just 13.4% against the run and ranks 79th in success rate. Teams average 4.3 yards per carry against Washington this season. Penn State is well-equipped to keep that going.
X-Factor at Y
The Nittany Lion offense features one of the nation’s best pass-catching athletes in tight end Tyler Warren. He leads the team in receptions with 51, while no one else has more than 24 on the season. The tight end hauled in 17 passes against USC a couple of weeks ago for 224 yards. The threat for Warren mostly exists in the medium to short-range pass game. He’s only been targeted on four throws of 20 or more yards this season. His biggest strength is what he does with the football in his hands. Warren is second in the country with 353 yards after the catch this season.
Kotolnicki also utilizes his tight end out of the backfield. Against Ohio State, Warren took three direct snaps for 47 yards on the ground. It’s not often that they’ve shown this look, but on ten attempts this season, Warren averages nearly nine yards per carry. It’s yet another angle of the Penn State run game that the Huskies will be forced to defend.
Protection Matchup
The left tackle spot will be an area of focus on Saturday inside Beaver Stadium. Fisch said this week that Kahlee Tafai is going to get the start. He’s been one of the team’s top pass blockers in the past two weeks. After the bye week, Tafai played in 29 snaps at Indiana, and 55 snaps against USC, allowing just two total quarterback pressures. Fisch said that Maximus McCree is medically cleared to play and will have a thumb cast on for the final three games this season. But he sees McCree’s usage as “emergency” only. It’s going to be Tafai’s position going forward.
Washington was able to find its footing in the passing game a week ago against USC. Will Rogers attempted 39 passes, his most on the season. Denzel Boston caught nine passes for 99 yards, setting himself a career-high receptions in a single game. Though Washington’s points came on the ground, Rogers was not sacked once and was not forced to scramble out of the pocket. But the test on Saturday will be the toughest of the season for Tafai. Penn State’s Abdul Carter tallied two sacks against Ohio State a week ago, bringing his total to six on the season. Carter also has 11.5 tackles for loss this year. The Penn State defensive end was matched up with a left tackle getting his first start at the position a week ago. Carter forced five quarterback pressures on the day.
Clean Pocket Success
The Huskies are at their best when throwing the football. They have a success rate of over 50% when passing. But getting passes off in a clean pocket is the challenge on Saturday. Under pressure, Rogers has completed less than 48% of his throws with only six yards per attempt. His two interceptions thrown at Indiana were both a result of pressure up the middle. On Saturday, the left side of the line will be an area of interest. But in a clean pocket, Rogers has a 78% completion percentage with 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Protection on Saturday will define how productive Washington’s offense can be.
Predicting Washington vs. Penn State
For Washington to give itself an opportunity on Saturday, it needs to control at least these two elements of the game. The first element will be getting the Penn State run game off script. Pass defense has been a strength for Washington all season. But the Nittany Lions excel at how they run the ball to open up the passing offense. For the Husky pass defense to step up, the run defense needs to force second and long and third and long more often than not.
Offensively, Rogers has to be kept clean in the pocket. His success throwing the football without pressure is significantly better than when faced with pressure. But Penn State’s defensive front is top 15 in pressure rate. It’s going to be a similar test to what it experienced at Iowa. Washington allowed 22 pressures in that game. Keeping Rogers clean begins with solidifying the interior, which improved against USC a week ago. But Carter has game-wrecking abilities on the left end, and protecting that side of the line will change the game.
Penn State – 27
Washington – 16
