The picks in week 10 asked if any treats were awaiting. Well, we got some very fun results to see. Some of which were nice to the wallet. The totals were terrific at 4-1. Moneyline was also green at 3-2. However, against the spread went just 2-3, and another lock broke down. No time to dwell on last week because conference title aspirations are on the line. With just a month left in the season 14 of the 16 teams in the Big 12 are still mathematically alive to play for the conference crown (sorry Oklahoma State and Arizona). These Big 12 week 11 winners are going to serve as elimination games for some teams. But who’s title chances will still be alive after this week? All lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Season Totals
Against The Spread: 37-49
Totals: 47-38
Locks: 2-9
Big 12 Week 11 Winners: Elimination Week?
West Virginia At Cincinnati (-4.5)
Cincinnati has not beaten West Virginia in 15 years. But this week seems like a great chance to do so. A win would not only double up Scott Satterfield’s win total from last year, but it would clinch bowl eligibility. Neal Brown’s team will be without its starting quarterback Garret Greene for the second straight week. The Bearcats should be able to slow down this Mountaineer rushing attack and quarterback Brendan Sorsby should have a big day against a team with a new defensive coordinator this week.
#17 Iowa State (-2.5) At Kansas
Even in a super competitive conference, Vegas still gives out some lines that come across as fishy. No line stinks more in the Big 12 week 11 winners than Iowa State not even laying a field goal against a two-win Kansas team. The Jayhawks are the fresher team as they are coming off the bye week. And the last time we saw Lance Leipold’s team, they dismantled a Houston team that just beat Kansas State (which Kansas was beating in the 4th quarter). So maybe the Jayhawks are finding this grove late in the season. But Matt Campbell will have his team ready after suffering their first loss of the season last week. If this line was over a field goal, Kansas would be the play in this closely contested game. But the Cyclones can cover this number, even if it takes an end-of-game drive.
#20 Colorado (-4.5) At Texas Tech
Could this be Colorado’s second act? The Buffs have been quietly handling their business ever since their week two loss. Even a loss to Kansas State was a closely contested game without much chatter. Now, Deion Sanders’ team could grab a firm grip on the second spot in the standings with a road win over Texas Tech. If the Red Raiders expect to win, they need to play keep away by overfeeding their All-American running back. However, the glaring mismatch of this Colorado passing attack against this Texas Tech pass defense will be too much for the home team to overcome. Expect all of the points to be scored in this one as Colorado escapes the cascading tortillas and earns a tough road win.
UCF (+2.5) At Arizona State
It appears that running back Cam Skattebo will be out of this game with an undisclosed injury. No official word has been passed, but the signs all point to Skateebo being out. Combine that with the fact that Gus Malzahn might have finally found an answer at quarterback, and we have all the ingredients for a very minor upset. UCF’s redshirt freshman quarterback Dylan Rizk shined in his first career start last week against a bad Arizona team. The Knights still need to get a solid game from RJ Harvey, who leads the Big 12 with 1,201 rushing yards. As long as UCF keeps their rushing game going in all four quarters, they will join Texas Tech as the second team with rights to the title of “Arizona Champions 2024.”
Oklahoma State (+10.5) At TCU
For those not interwoven in the world of Big 12 Twitter/X, these two fan bases have been arguing about whose defense will give up more points in this game. It’s bad when they are arguing about who is the worst. So even a point total of 67.5 isn’t high enough to scare Last Word away when that is the discourse amongst the fan bases. That said, if both defenses can’t stop a nosebleed, then how could we expect TCU to beat Oklahoma State by more than two scores? Oklahoma State, for as bad as this season, still has shown some fight on the field. TCU will win this game, but the porous defense allows Oklahoma State to keep it within the number.
#9 BYU (-2.5) At Utah
The Big 12 week 11 winners wrap up in the after-dark window as we are all going to be blessed with The Holy War. Utah spent the bye week trying to figure out how to finish out this lost season strongly. The only way Kyle Whittingham’s team can win this is on the backs of his defense. It can’t be just a rock fight the Utes need to get in. They must drag BYU into a level of the dark underworld that not even Dante’s Inferno could reference. This is officially Utah’s Super Bowl and they will give BYU their very best shot in hopes of ruining their season. But they are so limited offensively, they will not score enough and waste another great defensive effort. BYU moves on to 9-0.
