The Week 11 SEC got an extra punch Tuesday night when the College Football Playoff Committee unveiled its initial rankings. Depending on your perspective and the way you interpret the numbers, the SEC did very well, or they had plenty of work before them.
| Highest Ranked Conference “Champions” |
First Round Matchups
|
| 1 Oregon |
12 Boise State @ 5 Ohio State
|
| 2 Georgia |
11 Alabama @ 6 Texas
|
| 3 Miami |
10 Notre Dame @ 7 Penn State
|
| 4 BYU |
9 Indiana @ 8 Tennessee
|
If you like your glass half full, you can celebrate that the SEC had the most teams ranked by the committee. Eight teams were ranked in the Top 25. If the playoff began today, the SEC would have four teams: Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Alabama would be in. Georgia would have the first-round bye, and there would be home playoff games in Austin and Knoxville. Alabama wouldn’t have to travel too far; they travel to Austin to take on the ‘Horns.
A closer look shows that the Big Ten may have been the real winner on Tuesday night. Sure, they only had four ranked teams, but they made the most of it. Oregon and Ohio State locked out the two top spots. Penn State came in at No. 6, and Indiana came in at No. 8. Theoretically, each team could stand at least one more loss and still have a strong argument to be in the playoff. This writer is skeptical if the Hoosiers would get the benefit of the doubt; TCU and Baylor come to mind to look for historical precedent. You’re not here to look or hear about the Big Ten and Big 12, so instead, we tiered the eight teams and looked at what they have to do to hear their names called in December to make the playoffs.
One Mulligan
- No. 3 Georgia (7-1)
- No. 5 Texas (7-1)
- No. 7 Tennessee (7-1)
These three teams are in the playoffs today and still have an opportunity to make the SEC Championship game. We are giving each team a mulligan, or a “forgivable loss,” and still think they are in the playoffs. Georgia has two big tests left on its schedule: Saturday against Ole Miss in Oxford and next week at home against the Vols. Texas’ biggest remaining game is on the road to close the season at Kyle Field.
Prediction: All three make it in. Georgia wins the SEC Championship.
Win or Go Home
The Playoff begins for all four of these teams this weekend. Alabama is currently the only team of the group that would be in the playoff if it started today. The path to the playoff for each of these teams is difficult. The math is simple: win out, and you are more than likely in. Texas A&M has the best opportunity of the group because they are still in contention to play for the SEC Championship. This is where the naysayers were wrong about the expanded playoff diluting the regular season. The expanded playoff means the “playoff” begins in November rather than late December.
Each of these teams’ fan bases will be irritated about a “bad” loss that could cost their team a shot at the playoff. Vanderbilt is not a bad loss in 2024, but when you are Alabama, every loss is bad. The Aggies were in the driver’s seat before getting derailed by a Sandstorm last week in Carolina. LSU’s opening loss to USC was on brand for the Brian Kelly era and is even more head-scratching now. The Lane Train and the Sip are still trying to figure out how they lost late to Kentucky. The Grove Collective put up a lot of money to assemble this roster. A New Year’s Six bowl will not be good enough.
This makes for some exciting Week 11 SEC games this weekend. The Rebels host the Bulldogs in Oxford, and LSU and Alabama clash on the Bayou.
Just Happy to be Here
- No. 24 Missouri (6-2)
The Tigers are probably just happy to be ranked. They have been blown out by their two biggest SEC games this year, LSU and Alabama. South Carolina and Vanderbilt may be more deserving of this spot, despite additional losses on their record.
Week 11 SEC Betting Lines
Disney and ABC are going to have another ratings bonanza for the Week 11 SEC slate. They have helmet games at all three viewing windows, including two games with playoff implications in the afternoon and evening. Fox, NBC, CBS, and the CW must settle for the scraps. Rankings are based on the College Football Playoff Committee rankings. SEC betting lines and game totals are courtesy of FanDuel. All games are Eastern Standard Time. Check the links for insights from your favorite Last Word on College Football writers.
| Matchup | Time | TV | Line | O/U |
| Florida vs. No. 5 Texas | Noon | ABC | Hook Em -21.5 | 47.5 |
| No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 16 Ole Miss | 3:30 PM | ABC | UGA -2.5 | 54.5 |
| South Carolina vs Vanderbilt | 4:15 PM | SECN | SC -3.5 | 45.5 |
| Mississippi State vs. No. 7 Tennessee | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Rocky Top -24 | 61.5 |
| No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU | 7:30 PM | ABC | Roll Tide -3 | 58.5 |
| Oklahoma vs. No. 24 Missouri | 7:45 PM | SECN | Boomer -2.5 | 41.5 |
