There’s nothing quite like November college football. Ten weeks in, the calendar turns to the final month of regular season action. Matchups mean more as teams inch towards postseason aspirations. That’s the case on Saturday night, as a couple of 4-4 teams are facing a must-win situation with regard to their chase for bowl eligibility. In an “old school” Pac-12 matchup, Washington and USC will meet for the first time with Big Ten patches on their uniforms.
“[Players] have chosen University of Washington to play games against USC,” Jedd Fisch said on Thursday. The two programs have long been among the powers of College Football’s West Coast. Saturday will be the 87th meeting between the Trojans and the Huskies. “It’s certainly nice to play a game against a team that we are very familiar with.”
Re-Establish The Passing Game
Washington will have an opportunity at home to re-establish its passing game against USC. After throwing for 300 or more yards in three of its first six games, Washington has not reached the 275-yard mark in its last two contests. Last week’s 202 passing yards were the fewest of the season. But the opponent on Saturday presents an opportunity for the Huskies to take advantage downfield. Rutgers threw for a season-high 313 yards on the Trojans last Friday. For Washington, Will Rogers’ downfield passing abilities are among the nation’s best. Fisch has shown on several occasions this season that he isn’t afraid to let him throw it deep and give his talented receivers a chance to work.
On Saturday, that will start with protection. Both of Rogers’ interceptions at Indiana were in part caused by pressure up the middle. A week ago, center D’Angalo Titialii and guard Enokk Vimahi allowed four pressures each, and a total of three sacks. The two have allowed 16 pressures and four sacks dating back to the Michigan game. This week, the two might see an improvement against a USC defense that has a below average pressure rate and ranks 118th in success rate against the pass.
Last week, Washington’s left tackle spot began to find its footing. Fisch expects Maximus McCree to remain sidelined with his thumb injury. But Kahlee Tafai and Soane Faasolo each got 29 snaps at left tackle at Indiana. According to Pro Football Focus, neither player allowed a quarterback pressure. Fisch said the two continued to battle this week at practice for that role with McCree out. Against USC, Washington should perform at a higher level along its offensive line.
Air-Raid Roots
USC isn’t an offense that looks to take shots down the field through the air. Miller Moss has only attempted 33 passes this season of 20 air yards or more, just a 10% rate. Rather, the USC offense relies on its air-raid roots. Lincoln Riley is a descendant of the Mike Leach coaching tree, and Riley’s route schematics resemble those air-raid tendencies. The USC passing game consists of shallow crossing patterns, mesh concepts, and pass-catcher screens. Last week at Rutgers, Moss posted an average depth of target of just five yards, yet he finished with 308 passing yards total. This makes their pass game an extension of the run game, much like the air raid.
A week ago, USC completed six passes that resulted in gains of 15 yards or more. Those six throws totaled 188 passing yards. Three of those six passes were thrown with five air yards or less, and none of them were thrown with more than 12 air yards. Makai Lemon caught two of these six passes for a total of 110 yards, 89 of which came after the catch. The Washington pass defense is currently ranked first nationally, allowing just 123 passing yards per game. But the challenge will be defending the horizontal stretch of USC’s offense. Their routes get defenders on the move, create congestion over the middle, and open up running lanes after the catch.
Special Teams X-Factor
One area that could make a significant impact on this game is special teams. Washington has allowed the most 30-plus yard special teams returns in the country this season with seven – four on kickoffs and three on punts. It has allowed more than 90 kickoff return yards in three games this season. In the last two games, it has allowed an average of 30 yards per punt return. Return coverage has lacked this season for Washington in both phases.
“Number one is you’d love to kick more touchbacks to eliminate returns,” Fisch said on Thursday. Grady Gross has kicked off 42 times this season but has struggled to force the touchback. He’s forced just 17 touchbacks on the year. Opponents have returned the Washington kickoff 47.6% of the time this season, which is second-most in the Big Ten with a minimum of 30 kickoffs.
It’s a similar story on the punt team. “You gotta get good hang time… and direction on the kicks,” Fisch said, “To really feel like you can not have to cover the whole fifty-three and a third.” The 65-yard punt return allowed last week at Indiana had a hang time of about 3.6 seconds. That was over a half second less than the average on the day, and didn’t allow the coverage team to reach their spots. “We’ve gotta be better there, that’s in punt coverage and in kickoff coverage.”
Washington’s struggles to defend kicks will lead to opportunities for the Trojans in the kick return game. Lemon and Zachariah Branch have elite-level speed on USC’s kickoff return team. Lemon took one 80 yards for a touchdown last week and currently averages 33 yards per kickoff return on the season. Touchbacks and directional punting are something Washington needs to emphasize in this game if it wants to avoid giving up big returns. USC has the speed to break away with its personnel.
Predicting Washington vs. USC
Offensively, Washington needs to continue to trust Rogers and the passing game. His numbers have shown what he can do to defenses. There will be an opportunity for the Washington offensive line to keep Rogers cleaner this week than in the two weeks prior. Factor in Demond Williams Jr., and Washington can implement a plus-one run game by utilizing the quarterback position.
For the Huskies to continue their home win streak, they are going to need to execute on special teams on Saturday. Branch is one of the nation’s most electric players with the football in his hands, and he’s flanked by the speedy Lemon on kick returns. Ultimately, this phase of the game could be the difference on Saturday.
Washington – 31
USC – 27
