The game in Fort Worth brings together two teams coming off very surprising performances for opposite reasons. TCU is feeling good about locking down Utah on the road. Texas Tech turned in its worst performance in 2024 against Baylor. Do the results last week overshadow the resumes of both teams? For Joey McGuire’s team, if they want a Texas Tech week nine bounce-back win, they have to make plays in TCU’s backfield.
Texas Tech Week Nine Hangover From The Leach Effect?
After last week’s home loss, Don Williams of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal published an article in which he touched on a subject he has discussed before known as the “Mike Leach effect.” Essentially, because of the way Leach won most of his games (simply outscoring teams rather than stopping them), it has morphed the mindset of the fans. For the last 15ish years, the fan base has turned a bit of a blind eye to the defense. Instead, it assigns blame for the team’s struggles to the offense. Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley draws plenty of criticism. Most notably the lack of touches five-star wide receiver Micah Hudson has received this season. The bottom line on Hudson is this; It started with McGuire’s pre-season comments about Hudson. McGuire said Hudson was better than his former wide receivers who played pro football.
But Hudson never got to practice with the team until August workouts due to knee surgery in the Spring. Any true freshman trying to find the field is hard even with Spring ball under their belt. So Hudson is having to play catch up to get on the field. This is also aided by the fact that the wide receivers are playing very well for this team. So even though the Red Raiders are nationally ranked 18th in both scoring and total offense, calls for Kittley and the offense to get Hudson more involved have only grown louder.
Find Offensive Rhythm
As good as this offense has been, they are hardly blameless and a perfect unit. Despite having Tahj Brooks in the backfield, this team only ranks eighth in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game. And, once a position they basically relished being in, Texas Tech’s 50% 4th down conversion percentage ranks 11th in the Big 12 and 75th nationally. The rushing total could be explained away by the scheme that Kittley wants to run.
But quarterback Behern Morton’s play this year has not justified Brooks going drives without touching the football. Even at this point in the season, if it isn’t a screen route, Morton seems to lack fluidity in making reads. That said, a Texas Tech week nine victory can be had if this Red Raider offense just has an average day against TCU. The true key lies on the other side of the ball.
Can Someone Register A TFL?
Coming into the season, much of this Red Raider defense was new and young. They have a few core groups of players that are the foundation of it. But there were some anticipated growing pains before the season started. Those pains have been as bad as predicted. In the last nine games, Texas Tech has allowed more than 35 points in five of those games. Of those five, in three of those games, they allowed more than 50. In passing, total, and scoring defense, this unit ranks in the bottom 10 of all FBS football in 2024. Much of those passing defense woes are due to a lack of pressure up front. Texas Tech is averaging 0.89 sacks per game, which is last in the Big 12 and 129th nationally.
If fans are feeling like the pass rush has gotten worse over the years, those aren’t just feelings. In 2022, the average was 2.38 sacks per game and in 2023 it dropped to 2.07. The lack of pass rush hit a new low against Baylor where they had zero sacks and zero TFLs in the game. Now, they go into this game with their defensive lineman who has played the most snaps (E’Maurion “Dooda” Banks) out with an injury. It is an absolute requirement for Tim DeRuyter to scheme up some havoc to secure a Texas Tech week nine victory. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has been turnover-prone this season. Sonny Dykes’ team ranks 126th in FBS in turnover margin at -10 on the season. There is no better chance to force a team into making mistakes than this week in Fort Worth for the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech Week Nine Prediction
The last time the Red Raiders won in Amon G. Carter Stadium was on a Thursday, October night in 2018 by a score of 17-14. The battle for the Saddle has had some wild games in recent memory. With each team having very uncharacteristic games last week, it makes this game hard to predict. Any outcome, good or bad, for the Red Raiders seems obtainable.
But here is the opportunity to demonstrate real growth for the Red Raiders. As bad as the coaching preparation was for last week, being able to flush it and win a road conference game would be the exact sign of this season still trending upward. The defense has shown flashes this season, including limiting Cam Skattebo in a victory over Arizona State. They are not going to go another 48 minutes of football without tackling the opposing offense for a loss. With a rebound effort from the defense and winning the turnover margin, the Red Raiders escape Fort Worth with the win.
Texas Tech 38, TCU 35
