For the first time since the 1995 Sun Bowl, Washington, and Iowa will meet in a college football game. This regular season matchup is a Big Ten Conference game and marks the first trip to Iowa City since the 1964 season for the Huskies. Washington’s second road trip this year will be inside the hostile environment of a black and gold-striped Kinnick Stadium. Big Noon Saturday is in town, meaning this is a 9:00 am Pacific Time kickoff for the Huskies. Washington traveled an extra day early, arriving in Iowa City on Thursday evening to adjust to the time difference.
This week, Jedd Fisch has emphasized a focus on the Iowa brand. “We’ve tried to make a big focus so they understand what Iowa football is,” Fisch said on Wednesday of this week. “Any of us that know college football know the brand.” It’s apparent that the coaching staff has been preparing for the challenge this road trip will pose, and there will be some intriguing matchups playing out on the field.
Iowa’s Reliance on Ground Game
Fisch pointed out that this will be the fourth week in a row where Washington has prepared for one of the top running backs in the conference. This week they will face Kaleb Johnson. Washington defensive coordinator Steve Belichick said this week that he’s, “Probably the best skill player we’ve played all season.” Johnson is the nation’s second-leading rusher with 771 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. “This guy is very good, big challenge for us this week… this guy is a dangerous player,” Belichick concluded.
Johnson’s running has been what makes the Iowa offense go. Cade McNamara has not been the passer the Hawkeyes hoped they had when they landed him in the transfer portal following the 2022 season. He played just five games in 2023 before a knee injury. McNamara has not thrown a touchdown pass against a Power Four opponent since he did so against Iowa in the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game.
Despite that, the Hawkeye offense moves the ball at an average of 5.7 yards per play. “With Coach Lester getting there, you can see some of the changes they’ve made on offense,” Fisch pointed out on Wednesday this week. There have been changes, notably with using more pre-snap motion to get the defense moving. This helps with diagnosing coverage before the snap. But the big change has been in the run game, where the mid-zone run scheme has allowed Johnson to thrive.
Deep Threat Wide Receivers
The Hawkeye defense is traditionally one of the top units in the nation. This year, it ranks 66th in passing defense, allowing 210 passing yards per game. That’s the lowest it’s been ranked since 2021 when it was 42nd nationally (214 YPG). Iowa has uncharacteristically allowed four passing plays of 50 yards or more this season through five games. Only seven teams in the FBS have allowed more than that.
This weekend, Washington has a playmaker at wide receiver with the same potential. Denzel Boston is currently second nationally with eight touchdown receptions. He averages just 5.8 catches per game and 82 receiving yards per contest. But his utilization in the Huskies’ last three games has been significant. It’s been five touchdowns and 326 yards in three weeks for the sophomore. Boston has been targeted eight times for more than 20 air yards on the season. He’s two for two on contested catches in this depth category.
Will Rogers’ Deep Ball Success
Last week against Michigan, Will Rogers III had one of his best games in a Husky uniform. He was 21 of 31 with 271 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Three of which were for 35-plus yards. Rogers’ average depth of target was 10 yards last week, which was his most at Washington and second most of his career. Rogers is also making his decisions quickly. He averages just 2.7 seconds in the pocket on his 21 deep ball attempts this season. Rogers’ decisiveness, accuracy, and timing have been among the best in the nation this season when throwing long. This has earned him a 97.8 “deep ball” grade according to Pro Football Focus.
On Saturday, Washington is up against Iowa’s stand-out corner Jermari Harris. His 88.5 coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus is the best in the nation with a minimum of 50 coverage snaps. But outside of Harris, there’s a drop-off. Iowa’s next-rated cornerback has a 59 grade according to the site. The combination of Boston with Giles Jackson and Jeremiah Hunter is something that the Huskies will be able to use to stress the back end of Iowa’s defense. Rogers’ success in throwing the ball downfield is going to be an advantage against the Hawkeye secondary on Saturday.
Prediction
The Hawkeyes are going to rely on their run game. It’s a team that runs an average of 39 attempts per game compared to just 24 pass attempts per game. The mixed-use of Johnson and Jaziun Patterson has been effective all season. Forcing Iowa to pass is something Washington needs to work towards. Though Iowa will continue to run, pressing the formation and loading the box defensively are going to be key for Washington to slow down the Hawkeye running backs.
But Washington has another dimension that could change this game. Dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is going to be an X-factor on Saturday. The true freshman has burned his redshirt, playing in six games thus far. He averages 11 snaps at quarterback, or some version of quarterback, per game. Fisch has shown at least a couple of different packages with the freshman this year, and the head coach is not afraid to run a two-quarterback system. Williams has track speed and can beat nearly any defender to the outside. His ability to run the RPO adds another dimension to the offense that can stress Phil Parker’s unit. Look for Williams to enter the game and make a difference on Saturday.
Washington – 24 Iowa – 21
