As a fan, this game is not for the weak. First off, it has a scheduled kickoff of 11 pm EST. Second, this game will be back and forth all night/early morning long. A Texas Tech week six showdown with Arizona has the potential for one of these teams to insert themselves into the conversation for Big 12 supremacy. If the Red Raiders are going to finally break their road struggles, what is the one key area that they must focus on?
Defense Could Be In Trouble
Texas Tech’s defense has struggled all year. This is not exactly breaking news to those who have watched this team. But how bad has it been? Before we present the numbers, let’s do a quick 101 class on success rate. Per Sports-Reference.com “Success Rate starts with the idea that not all plays in football have the same objective. On first and 10, a two-yard run would be considered a bad result; on third and one, that same two-yard run would be celebrated for moving the chains. This means we can’t just use stats like yards to measure how effective an offense is. Instead, Success Rate shows us how effective players and teams are at staying on schedule and creating productive plays.” The Red Raider’s defense has not exactly had much to brag about on the success rate front.
They currently rank 99th against the run and 110th against the pass. They are also allowing the 82nd worst points per drive in the country, and that only counts FBS opponents. It is omitting 51 points that Abilene Chrisitan put on this team in week one. For a more traditional statistic, Tim DeRuyter’s defense ranks 133rd in passing yards allowed per game. This is only exacerbated by the fact that the Red Raiders do rank top 20 in air yards per target.
What does this mean? Teams aren’t taking deep shots on this team. So how are they surrendering so many passing yards a game if teams aren’t throwing it down the field? It is because Texas Tech ranks 133rd in tackle rate. Except for the Arizona State game, where the defense played their best game of the season, teams have hit large chunk plays for touchdowns mainly because of poor tackling. In the four other games, Texas Tech has allowed touchdown plays of 71, 43, 75, 42, and 71 yards.
Texas Tech Week Six Defensive Game Plan Must Start With Containing ‘Cats Arieal Attack
Coming into this Texas Tech week six clash with Arizona, the defense is particularly banged up. One defensive back, Javeon Wilcox, is already ruled out with four other defensive backs listed as questionable. So the Red Raiders come into this one with a leaky and injured pass defense. Now, they have to try and find an answer for one of the best QB/WR connections in the nation. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has picked up where he left off the 2023 season.
The only difference so far is that Fifita has been more turnover-prone this season with four interceptions after having only six all of last season. And much like his quarterback, Tetairoa McMillan has also been giving secondaries nightmares in 2024. He currently ranks 8th in receiving yards this season (503) and ranks 6th in average yards per game (125.8). Overall, Arizona’s passing attack ranks 40th in the country, but the explosivity McMillan possesses presents a massive challenge for this defense.
Offense Must Keep Winning Third Down
As daunting as the challenge is for the defense, the Texas Tech offense presents an equally difficult challenge for Brent Brennan’s Wildcat defense. Texas Tech has one of the top running backs in the nation in Tahj Brooks. He ranks 6th nationally in rushing yards (551). Meanwhile, the passing attack ranks 16th averaging 305.4 yards per game with the ball getting spread all over the field. But the specific thing that has kept this offense going is converting on third down. They are 10th in third down success rate. Even more incredible is that approximately 50% of those are on seven yards or longer to convert.
The offense needs to do a better job early in the down to set itself up for success early in drives as they rank 112 in the percentage of times they get a first down on first or second down. But staying on the field and keeping their defense on the sideline will be key for this Texas Tech week six desert showdown. They have to take advantage of the fact that Arizona is in 106th in third down conversion defense, with teams converting 43.4% of their third downs into first downs.
Texas Tech Week Six Prediction
Much has been in the past week how well Joey McGuire has been in the friendly confines of Lubbock, Texas. During his 2+ seasons as the Red Raider head coach, he is an incredible 14-3. However, his road record is equally noteworthy in the opposite direction (3-9). The defensive issues that persist on this Red Raider team don’t get fixed in a week. It’s hard to wake up at the sixth game of the season and go “Today we are going to tackle better.” In fairness, the defense is very young and should get better. But having to try and stop possibly the best wide receiver in all of college football is not the “get right” game for the defense. Expect the Red Raider offense to do its part to keep it close, but the Wildcats make the necessary one-to-two defensive stops in this game to get the home victory.
Arizona 56, Texas Tech 49
