Arizona State comes to Lubbock for this Texas Tech week four showdown to kickoff Big 12 play for both teams. This game serves as an interesting measuring stick for both teams. An Arizona State win would all but confirm this team is destined to have a magical season because they haven’t been the most statistically dominant 3-0 team in college football. A win by the Red Raiders would signal this team has made the necessary turnaround from a messy first two weeks of the season. It would also position Texas Tech to be playing those meaningful November games head coach Joey McGuire has talked about for this program to make the next step. So what must the Red Raiders do in order to begin Big 12 play 1-0?
Injuries Continue To Mount
The Red Raiders had a fourth member of the team suffer a season-ending knee injury last week in backup running back Cam’Ron Valdez. With Valdez out for the year, the only options to spell All-American Tahj Brooks are true freshmen Cameron Dickey or J’Koby Williams. It is no secret that Brooks will get plenty of touches in his pursuit of becoming the school’s all-time leading rusher. But Brooks has already missed one game this season due to injury. Everyone saw how bad that game got when offensive coordinator Zach Kittley did not even attempt to establish a run game with Brooks out of the lineup. So being able to get Brooks rest in-game is going to be critical moving forward.
Offense Needs To Pick Up From Last Week
That said, in this Texas Tech week four conference home opener, just keep running the offense. Is it realistic for it to be THAT good every week? Of course not. But if the offense is only 80% as good as it was last week, that still will result in 47 points. For the first time all season, quarterback Behren Morton looked like a quarterback who has been running the same offense for three straight seasons. All of his throws were on time and confident. The running game was unstoppable. All of the pieces worked. But the most critical improvement came in the penalty department. When the first team offense was on the field, Texas Tech committed zero procedural penalties. The only penalty they received was an intentional grounding call that should have been a sack anyway. Ensuring the offense doesn’t get in its own way with procedural penalties will make this offense hard to stop.
Run Defense Must Play Its Best Game Yet
McGuire called out his defense last week. He had good reason to do so as they had been gashed for two consecutive weeks by Abilene Christian and Washington State. Even with a much-improved performance last week, the defense numbers for Texas Tech don’t look great. Specifically, the Red Raiders have struggled against the run this year. They rank 107th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game at 181.7 average. This clear weakness that Arizona State is going to try and attack.
The Sun Devils offense runs (literally and figuratively) through Cam Skattebo. The senior running back has been one of the top backs in the nation during the 2024 season. Nationally, Skattebo ranks sixth in total rushing with 373 yards on 68 carries. That averages out to 5.5 yards per carry behind a line that struggled mightily last season but has shown improvement in 2024. Arizona State will not give up on Skattebo even if he is stifled early in the game. Last week against Texas State, he only had 62 yards rushing. But he carried it 24 times and had two touchdowns. Texas Tech defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter must game plan for a rushing attack that will not go away as long as the game remains close.
Texas Tech Week Four Prediction
When teams have this surprising of a start, it typically sticks. The ball seems to bounce their way all the time. Arizona State does rank 10th nationally in turnovers gained. Meanwhile, that Red Raider team that showed up to stomp North Texas last week looked like the team many anticipated seeing in 2024. Surely, they will be up for the challenge of a team with only one significant win (which was against a Sun Belt team). However, if Texas Tech plays a solid game, early evidence suggests that something will break the way of the Sun Devils. The magical start for Kenny Dillingham’s squad continues unscathed in a thrilling last-second victory over Texas Tech.
Arizona State 38, Texas Tech 35
