Much of the country has been getting some appetizers of fall weather this week. So it’s hard not to be anxious for the start of the college football season. With week zero quickly approaching, the Big 12 predictions have been set. The ACC also saw its future determined by the Last Word writers. Today, the Big 10 predictions take center stage. A newly formed 18-team conference has done away with divisions.
2024 LWOS Big 10 Predictions
Final Predicted Standings
Last Word’s Big 10 predictions were the result of 11 writers casting votes for the 2024 season (first-place votes are in parenthesis):
- Ohio State (8)
- Oregon (3)
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Iowa
- USC
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- Nebraska
- Rutgers
- Minnesota
- Michigan State
- UCLA
- Maryland
- Illinois
- Purdue
- Northwestern
- Indiana
Big 10 Rematch Ineveitable?
Ohio State is not only the favorite in these LWOS Big 10 predictions, but one of the betting favorites to make the college football playoff. Excluding 2020, the Buckeyes have not won less than 11 games since 2011. This team’s talent on both sides of the ball stacks up more than a local diner pancake stack. If anyone is looking for a possible question mark, it would be that the best quarterback Ohio State could field this year was going to be the backup quarterback in Kansas State. But with all the weapons around Will Howard, he is only going to be asked to manage games in Columbus and not try to win them.
One of the games on the Buckeye’s schedule is an October 12th date with the other favorite in LWOS’ Big 10 predictions. The Oregon Ducks, entering their third season under Dan Lanning, also are returning a ton of talent. While Lanning was heavily courted to replace Nick Saban at Alabama, the Ducks (dating back to the Mario Cristobal tenure) have yet to break through to the top tier of the sport. Are the Ducks going to have a Buckeye problem replace their Washington problem? Or will it not matter in a 12-team playoff?
Speaking Of Breaking Though…
Penn State, through the structure of the divisions of the Big 10, had both an Ohio State and Michigan hurdle they couldn’t seem to clear. In James Franklin’s ten seasons as the Nittany Lion’s head coach, his combined record against the Buckeyes and Wolverines is 4-16. But with only Ohio State and one other preseason top-25 team (#23 USC) on the schedule, the schedule is primed for at least another 10-win season (which would be Franklin’s sixth in 11 seasons). Can new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki unlock the true potential of Drew Allar and have him excel in the biggest games of the year? The LWOS writers have Penn State right in the mix for a spot in the Big 10 championship game.
Michigan had the ultimate breakthrough last season. The Wolverines not only beat their biggest rival for the third straight season but went undefeated and captured their first national championship since 1997. However, Michigan lost 13 players to the NFL draft and their head coach to the Los Angeles Chargers. They also are still facing looming action from the NCAA. But, the defense is still going to be one of the best in the country. The question is at quarterback. If it turns out Alex Orji can throw the ball and threaten defenses, Michigan will be right back in the hunt for another Big 10 title.
Who Can Ruin One Of The Contenders Season?
As a reminder of how these Big 10 predictions were calculated, all writers were asked to assign each team to a spot 1-18 (side note: it is still wild to see 18 teams in one conference). After Michigan, there are five teams clumped within a few points of each other rounding out the top half of the Big 10. Iowa is really good on defense and special teams (shocking, we know). But reports out of fall camp suggest the offense still looks stuck with the parking brake on. USC will be good on offense. Lincoln Riley’s resume speaks for itself on that. But will they be able to stop a nosebleed this year? Washington has a brand new team (only two returning players who started in the CFP title game), but the writers believe Jedd Fisch can keep them at least competitive in year one.
Year two under Luke Fickel should yield improvement, but just like all the old Big 10 West teams, they have to do more than just be better than a very meh group of teams. The laws of statistics say Nebraska has to improve in one-score games under Matt Rhule. But starting a true freshman quarterback will result in some growing pains. Rutgers was in that next tier below these five teams, but they had votes from the writers to finish as high as fourth. They bring back almost their entire team from last year with a rushing attack that will give anyone fits. Not to mention, has only one ranked team on its schedule.
Low Expectations For the Bottom Half
When combining the number of votes between the last eight teams in the Big 10 predictions, there were only three votes for any of them to finish better than tenth. Almost all of these programs are still “early” in their coaches’ tenure. Only Minnesota has a head coach who has been in place longer than five seasons. So while Purdue and Northwestern are entering their second season with a new coach, they are much closer to the status of the programs with a new head coach (Michigan State, UCLA, and Indiana). Minnesota, Maryland, and Illinois are starting to wonder if this is the best they can expect. But, all of these teams in the bottom half of these Big 10 predictions are a safe bet to not exceed the 6/7 win mark this season.
