There are a couple consistent themes the media will hear out of a newly hired head football coach. Two key ones are the “culture” the coach is bringing to the program and how that can take shape as the staff gets “their guys” on campus. For the uninitiated, “their guys” means having a roster that they have hand-selected. When a coach finally is coaching with talent, he and his staff have hand-selected, the true evaluation process takes place. Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire is entering his third season with the Red Raiders. The 2024 season is going to give the Red Raiders a good look at what McGuire can be as a head coach, for better or for worse.
What Joey McGuire Has Accomplished So Far
McGuire was hired in November 2021 and the energy levels in the building have never been higher. In his first season as the Texas Tech head coach, he overachieved with an 8-5 record including defeating both Texas and Oklahoma (a first in program history for a single season). As a result, the expectations shot through the roof in year two. In a 14-team conference, the Big 12 media picked them to finish fourth. However, that second year was doomed by a slow start and lots of key injuries. It resulted in the Red Raiders finishing seventh with a 7-6 record.
Both seasons ended with bowl victories, while the Red Raiders have won their last three bowl games. The last time they won at three consecutive bowls games was between 2002-2004. His work at the end of the season has been outstanding. When the calendar turns to November, McGuire is a combined 8-2. Those strong finishes have also helped Texas Tech finish Big 12 play with winning records. The last time the Red Raiders had consecutive winning records in conference play was 2008-2009.
McGuire’s accomplishments on the recruiting trail have been excellent compared to the history of Red Raider recruiting classes. The 2023 class was ranked 28th nationally and the 2024 class ranked 24th. The last time Texas Tech had consecutive recruiting classes in the top 30 nationally was 2011-2012.
What Should Be Expected?
Entering his third year, only 16 players (five starters) remain on the Texas Tech roster McGuire inherited. Some of the most notable names include quarterback Behren Morton, running back Tahj Brooks, tight end Mason Tharp, and offensive lineman Caleb Rogers. So while offensive coordinator Zach Kittley does benefit from some cornerstone pieces left over from the Matt Wells era, for all intents and purposes, this is the first season McGuire will coach with “his guys.”
So what should be the expectation? Texas Tech was picked to finish ninth in this year’s Big 12 media preseason poll. This is a program that, in the college football playoff era, has been one of the worst P4 programs. Texas Tech ranks 51st out of 65 P4 programs in total wins from 2014-2023 (57). For reference, Utah has 86, Kansas State has 76, and Baylor has 70 wins during this time period. But the last two years have shown a level of competency that has been missing in Lubbock for quite some time. The Red Raiders also have one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12 this season.
Additional Buzz From $242 Million
Expectations are not dampened by recent history though. The south endzone of Jones AT&T Stadium has been under renovation since the end of the 2022 season. However, butts will be in those pricey luxury suites for week one when Abilene Christian comes to Lubbock. Part of the renovation project includes new offices for the coaches in the stadium, in which the staff has already moved into. The other part of the $242 million project is the Dustin R. Womble Football Center, which is located behind the South endzone and is connected by a walkway.
The Womble Football Center has a targeted completion date of Sept 21. Donors were not funding these types of projects for “just” 7-8 win seasons. “Pressure is a privilege” was said frequently by tennis legend Billie Jean King. McGuire has not shied away from the pressure that he has helped create. And while the conversations can dive deep into what kind of workload should Brooks have, or how will the secondary be reloaded, this is the first season that McGuire is *fully* responsible for what the record of this team will be.
Has Lubbock Already Seen Joey McGuire’s Ceiling?
His offensive and defensive coordinators (Kittle and Tim DeRuyter respectively) have been with him since day one. Continuity is no longer a valid excuse. Texas Tech has not finished a football season ranked in the final AP top 25 since 2009. The depth of talent, both at the offensive skill position and in the defensive trenches, is significantly upgraded. Ask McGuire and he will say so himself. If McGuire is going to bring this program back (and beyond) heights achieved in the late 00’s, this year must show signs of it in the win-loss column. Another campaign in which road games are struggles and require a late-season rally just to make a bowl game could indicate Joey McGuire’s ceiling has already been reached.
