Bowl season kicks off with a Saturday fill of seven bowl games on December 16th. The day will end in Shreveport, Louisiana when Texas Tech and Cal square off in the Independence Bowl. Both teams were on bowl season life support in October as the Red Raiders were 3-5, while the Bears were 3-6. Late-season winning streaks by both teams give bowl fans a showdown between two running backs who both finished in the top ten nationally in rushing yards per game.
Who Will Call Plays For The Cal Bears?
Bears head coach Justin Wilcox faces one big question mark heading into the Independence Bowl. He recently had his offensive coordinator Jake Spavital hired away by another Bear family located in Waco, Texas. Regardless of who is doing the actual playcalling, the offense should be running through Jaydn Ott. One of the more underrated running backs in the country, Ott rushed for 1,260 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. He is also averaging just under 23 rushing attempts and two receptions again. So expect Texas Tech defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter to force freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza to carry the heavy lifting on offense. Mendoza did not become the full-time starter until October of this season. With seven interceptions in seven starts this season, if the Red Raiders can limit Ott, they can capitalize on Mendoza’s inexperience and take the ball away.
On the defensive side of the ball for the Bears, there is not much to boast about. Cal’s defense ranks 106th in total defense, yielding 416.4 yards per game. The passing defense allows 282.5 yards per game, which ranks 127th nationally. They have allowed 50+ points in four games and 30+ points in two other games, all of which were Pac-12 conference games. The Bears defense also will be even thinner during the Independence Bowl. Cal, who listed its depth chart on Tuesday, revealed that inside linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr is in the transfer portal and will not play. Elarms-Orr was named to the Associated Press second-team All-Pac-12 squad and was third in the Pac-12 in average tackles per game.
Could Texas Tech Offense Look Vastly Different?
With a very leaky rush defense on the other side of the ball, the Red Raiders should continue to feature its best player in running back Tahj Brooks. There was major speculation about whether Brooks would play in this game or not. However, he posted his decision to return for 2024 on social media Monday. With 1,443 rushing yards, Brooks finished fourth nationally and will be one of the few pieces recognizable from the 2023 offense when the Independence Bowl kicks off.
The Red Raiders have had a total of seven wide receivers enter the transfer portal since it opened last week. Those include starters Jerand Bradley, Myles Price, and offensive tackle Monroe Mills. Three different true freshmen (Kelby Valsin, D.J. Crest, and T.J. West) all have the potential to see major playing time in the Independence Bowl. There will be one additional steadying piece to the Red Raider offense. Quarterback Behren Morton should finally be healthy for the first time since he made his season debut. Morton has been battling a shoulder injury most of the season since replacing Tyler Shough in week four. McGuire said, “I think by the 16th, I would be shocked if…Morton is not 100% or at least as close as you can get.” While Joey McGuire will want to get a look at a lot of his new receivers, expect Brooks to have a monster game in this one.
Independence Bowl Prediction
These teams have only met one other time, but it was a significant bowl victory for the Red Raiders. At the 2004 Holiday Bowl, a Sonny Cumbie-led Texas Tech team upset Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynch, and the number four-ranked Bears. For those on the East Coast, expect to stay up late. On top of the 9:15 EST kickoff, each team likes to play fast on offense. Both teams are top 20 in snaps per minute, so this clock will get plenty of breaks.
The Bears might be more motivated to be here. Cal went 4-8 last year and was picked to finish ninth in the Pac-12. Texas Tech, on the other hand, came woefully short of preseason expectations. It won’t necessarily feel like a shootout with both teams living on their rushing attacks, but there still will be plenty of points scored. However, the confirmation of Brooks playing in this game presents the biggest mismatch between these two teams. Texas Tech edges out Cal as McGuire wins this third consecutive bowl game.
Texas Tech 38, Cal 31
