In what will be the last meeting between these in-state rivals for the immediate future, both Texas and Texas Tech find themselves in interesting positions. Texas is eyeing playoff aspirations but needs to secure a Big 12 title and finish 12-1 to do so. The Red Raiders stumbled in the first half of the season, failing to live up to preseason expectations. However, Joey McGuire’s team has gotten hot at the right time of year winning three straight. But can he deliver a Texas Tech week 13 stunner against the rival Longhorns on Friday?
Continue to Lean on Brooks
On Tuesday, the Doak Walker Award semifinalists were announced and Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks was one of those 10 finalists (which also included three other Big 12 backs). He is the nation’s third-leading rusher, amassing 1,348 yards on 249 carries. He has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in eight of his last nine games. It very well could be Brook’s last game as a Red Raider, so there is no reason his touches should be limited by offensive coordinator Zach Kittley. Even if he does decide to play in the Texas Tech bowl game, they are looking at a full month before playing again. And while Brooks continues to lead the Power Five in missed tackles, this is the toughest defensive front the Red Raiders have faced.
Suffocating Longhorn Defense
One of the biggest challenges facing this Red Raider offense is the Texas defensive tackles Byron Murphy, Alfred Collins, and T’Vondre Sweat. This unit is one of the best in all of college football. It anchors a defense that is eighth-best in the nation in defending the run. Sweat has drawn the specific attention of McGuire, who said of Sweat “I don’t know who’s blocked him…He’s such a big human, 360 pounds, very physical.”
But it just isn’t the rushing defense that Steve Sarkisian’s team excels at on defense. Texas is the best in the nation on third-down defense. This season, the Horns have only allowed two teams to convert better than 30% of their third downs, Oklahoma and Alabama. While this has been a problem for most teams, the Red Raiders have found lots of success late in drives. On the season, Texas Tech has converted 40% of its third down tries and has been better than 30% nine times.
Take Three University Needs a Satellite Campus
In addition to facing a talented defense, the Texas offense has plenty of firepower. This is still applicable with the loss of running back Jonathon Brooks. After an injury scare last week against Iowa State, it appears quarterback Quinn Ewers will have his top wide receiver in this game in Xaiver Worthy. So with a decided talent advantage on both sides of the ball, where is the one area that can conjure up a Texas Tech week 13 upset in Austin? The quickest way to spring an upset is to have a decided advantage in the turnover department.
Part of McGuire’s coaching goals for all games is to win the turnover margin by a score of plus three. He evolved that strategy to match Texas Tech’s initials to rebrand it as Take Three University. The doors to that “university” have been closed all season. Tech has never won the turnover margin by plus three all year. Their best effort was plus two against TCU a few weeks ago. The Red Raiders have talent in the secondary that can match up with Texas’ receivers. However, Texas Tech has struggled to generate any real pass rush all season. So if Ewers has four/five/six seconds to find a receiver, it will quickly stress the secondary.
Texas Tech Week 13 Prediction
One of the moments of the 2022 Red Raider season was McGuire telling his team after taking down Texas that “I told you they (Texas) was gonna break and they did…It doesn’t mean anything to beat Texas.” It was a great rallying moment that led to a surprising first year for McGuire. So make no mistake; this Texas Tech team is going to be ready for Texas. Playing in Austin will not rattle this team. It would love nothing more than to rain on a Longhorn playoff parade.
However, Texas has put to bed the “lose games they aren’t supposed to” narrative this year. They have had those opportunities all season and haven’t blinked (even when not looking their best at times). This team has major talent in the trenches that is going to give Texas Tech problems. Texas can see the finish line with just one more hurdle. This Texas team will be locked in and ruin Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark’s preseason wish for the Red Raiders.
Texas 31, Texas Tech 21
