The Heroes Trophy resides in Lincoln, Nebraska, the site of Iowa’s Black Friday game this week. Nebraska’s win last season in Iowa City knocked the Hawkeyes out of a possible Big Ten Championship Game appearance. This year, Iowa has already claimed the Big Ten West. Its visit to Nebraska has a different purpose. A win would give the Hawkeyes 10 regular season wins for the second time in the last three seasons. For Kirk Ferentz, 10 regular season wins have been accomplished just four times in his 25-year tenure in Iowa City.
The Opponent
First-year Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule has the Cornhuskers in position to earn a bowl bid with a victory on Black Friday. Given the situation he walked into, Rhule has put together a solid coaching performance in his first year back at the college level. The Cornhuskers have the second-best run defense in the Big Ten, and the sixth-best nationally. It allows just 86 yards on the ground per contest. Nebraska also ranks 15th nationally in total defense. This is a group that ranked outside the top 100 in both of those categories last season. The turnaround on the defensive side of the football has been immense. It’s one of the main reasons that the program is on the verge of bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016.
Quarterback injuries and turnover frequency have forced Nebraska to cycle through three signal callers this season. Heinrich Haarburg and Chubba Purdy are both expected to be ready on Friday, and we could see both. Haarburg has contributed mightily to the Husker run game, leading the team in attempts, yards, and touchdowns at this point in the season. At running back, Anthony Grant and Emmett Johnson have nearly 800 combined yards and five total touchdowns. This offense runs the ball on 66% of its offensive plays this season and has been effective in doing so. The Cornhuskers lead the Big Ten with 186 rushing yards per game, and average just over four-and-a-half yards per attempt.
Iowa’s Path to Victory
The Hawkeye offense has been playing significantly better in its last two games, especially through the air. It surpassed 400 yards on offense against Rutgers’ 11th-ranked defense in the nation, with 223 yards passing. In the first half last week against Illinois, Deacon Hill completed 14 of 18 for 115 yards and a touchdown. The offense also found the timely explosive play in its win over Illinois late in the game. Again, it’s difficult to rely on the repeatability of explosive plays for success, but Iowa has found a way to do it consistently. It’s unlikely Iowa has a huge day on the ground, so the passing game will need to continue its performance on Friday.
Iowa has forced just one turnover in its last four games. Phil Parker’s defense has been known for its turnover production over the last several seasons. Since taking over as the defensive coordinator in 2013, his defense has tallied 177 interceptions, the most nationally in that span. Iowa has nine interceptions and three fumbles this season, but it has an opportunity on Black Friday. Nebraska leads the country in turnovers. It has thrown 15 interceptions and lost 13 fumbles on the year for 28 turnovers this season. Rhule’s offense averages a turnover every 24 offensive plays. In an environment where Nebraska is fighting for a bowl bid, Iowa will need to force takeaways and set itself up for shorter fields.
The Matchup to Watch
The Nebraska run game is the focal point of its offense, and its goal is to run the ball north of 40 times per game. Those attempts will come from both the running backs and the quarterback. Iowa has yet to face a quarterback who averages more than 10 attempts per game this season. Rutgers’ Gavin Wimsatt averages just shy of 10 attempts per game, and Iowa held him to negative yardage on the day. For Nebraska, Haarburg averages 12 carries per game and leads the team in rushing.
This will be Iowa’s toughest test against the run of the season. Nebraska is statistically the best running team in the conference. But it’s the dynamic capabilities of the quarterback and multiple productive running backs that will be the reason for its success. Iowa’s group up front has been good in getting pressure in the backfield of late. The Hawkeyes have 19 tackles for loss in the last four games and have produced 37 quarterback pressures in that stretch. Getting pressure is one thing, but containing a mobile quarterback is another. When the pressure breaks down the pocket, Haarburg will run and can do so very effectively. The nation’s second-leading tackler, Jay Higgins, and Nick Jackson will have opportunities to contain the mobile threat.
Get Set for Iowa vs. Nebraska, Prediction
In 2021, Iowa entered Lincoln Memorial Stadium as an underdog despite being 9-2 on the season against a 3-8 Nebraska team. Iowa won and claimed the Big Ten West. The story is similar this season. The Hawkeyes are listed as 2.5-point underdogs with a 9-2 record. This time, Nebraska is 5-6 and will be fighting hard for a win and a bowl invitation. Special teams and turnovers changed the direction of that game in the fourth quarter. A win for the visiting team might come down to similar circumstances. Against a tough Nebraska defense, special teams plays and forcing turnovers will play a role. Iowa has the pieces in place to make that happen.
Prediction
Iowa – 13
Nebraska – 10
