A program with an offensive coordinator set to be fired at season’s end with injuries that continue to plague the roster is in sole possession of its own destiny. A win against Illinois on Saturday would secure Iowa the Big Ten West division title for the second time in three seasons. Kirk Ferentz has put together what is perhaps the best coaching performance of his 25 year career in Iowa City. He has shielded the program from outside noise criticizing the offense, prepared the next man in for every situation, and kept the locker room together when many thought it would fall apart. Iowa is 8-2 and ranked 16th in the nation. Senior Day in Iowa City presents the opportunity to keep doing what it does best. Win a football game.
The Opponent
Illinois is heading to Kinnick Stadium with a good quarterback problem. Two weeks ago, Luke Altmyer was injured while trailing late in the game against Minnesota. Sixth-year quarterback and Ball State transfer John Paddock took the field and led a miraculous comeback victory. He completed three of three for 85 yards and a touchdown to defeat Minnesota on the road. Paddock remained the starter last week at home against Illinois where he continued to shine. He set an Illinois record for passing yards inside Memorial Stadium with 507 yards on 24 completions. That is an average of over 20 yards per completion. He also tossed four touchdowns en route to a 48-45 victory in overtime.
Bret Bielema has said that Altmyer is still the team’s starter, but that does not indicate who will start on Saturday at Iowa. It’s expected that Altmyer will be cleared to play, but it is very difficult to believe Bielema will take Paddock off the field with the way he’s played of late.
The Illini also have two of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten Conference. Isaiah Williams leads the Big Ten in receptions this year with 68 catches. His 893 yards is second in the league, and he has five touchdowns. In the shootout against Indiana, Williams had 200 yards receiving with a couple of scores. Pat Bryant is Illinois’ other leading pass catcher. He has six touchdowns this season with over 500 reception yards to go with it.
Defensively, Illinois might have one of the nation’s most disruptive interior defensive linemen. Johnny Newton has 36 quarterback pressures this season with six sacks. He has tremendous quickness and has played his best games against two of Illinois’ best opponents this season, Penn State and Wisconsin. The secondary is where Illinois has been struggling. It lost four defensive backs to the NFL last year. The Illini allow 233 pass yards per game defensively and are currently last in the conference with just five interceptions. Bielema’s defense is also last in the conference in scrimmage plays of 10 or more yards, with 148 on the year.
Injuries Continue for Iowa
To this point in the season, Iowa has lost three of their most critical playmakers this season. Quarterback Cade McNamara and tight ends Luke Lachey and Erick All all suffered season-ending injuries. Add Cooper DeJean to that list. The star cornerback and punt returner went down with a lower leg injury in practice this week. The injury will keep him sidelined for the remainder of the football season and likely into the Spring. It is not certain, but likely we have seen the last of DeJean in a Hawkeye uniform, as he is a projected first-round draft pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
DeJean’s absence against Illinois will impact this game for Iowa on Saturday. His threat for a big return on any given punt will be missed. The Odebolt, Iowa native has returned 21 punts this year for 11.5 yards per attempt. He took one back for a touchdown and another that was controversially wiped off the board. DeJean’s absence will also be missed at cornerback. This season, DeJean has allowed less than 21 yards per game in coverage, intercepted two passes, and made five pass breakups. If we’ve seen the last of DeJean at Iowa, he finished with seven interceptions (three returned for touchdowns), 13 pass breakups, 120 tackles, and 406 punt return yards. Since 2022, DeJean has scored four touchdowns. That is second-most on the team since then, and the guy doesn’t play on offense.
How Illinois Will Win
The Illini have to take advantage of Iowa’s missing piece defensively. Last year, DeJean suffered an injury against Nebraska that hurt the Hawkeyes significantly. The Cornhuskers attacked that side of the field and connected on two passes for two long touchdowns.
Williams as a receiver threat will be a critical piece of Saturday’s contest for Illinois. One of the few areas of weakness for this Iowa defense has been defending a vertical passing threat. Since 2019, Iowa has faced six teams with elite-level receivers that were able to exploit the secondary. In 2019 it was Tyler Johnson of Minnesota and Amon-Ra St. Brown of USC. Together, they combined for 18 receptions, 333 yards, and a touchdown. In 2020, Jahan Dotson of Penn State had 139 yards and a touchdown. During the 2021 season, Iowa faced David Bell of Purdue and Wan’Dale Robinson of Kentucky. They combined for 21 receptions, 410 yards, and two scores. Last season at Ohio State, Julian Fleming had 105 yards on just two catches with a touchdown.
The Hawkeye defense is 10th nationally in passing, allowing less than 170 yards per game. As a group, it has allowed just two passing touchdowns since September. However, the secondary is banged up without DeJean in the lineup and Williams is the most prolific receiver to face this defense this season.
How Iowa Will Win
A win on Saturday will probably start with Deshaun Lee at cornerback. The redshirt freshman played in place of Jermari Harris to begin the year, getting 146 snaps in Iowa’s first two games. He played well against Utah State, allowing just 37 yards and recording six tackles. Lee gave up a touchdown the following week and had nine tackles against Iowa State. His role in the secondary is going to be tested. Illinois’ last two wins have come from big passing performances.
Illinois’ weakness is the secondary. Deacon Hill completed 20 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown last week against the Rutgers ninth-ranked pass defense in the nation. Three Iowa wide receivers recorded a catch, and Hill completed passes to seven different offensive players in the team’s shutout victory. The offense did not go three-and-out once.
The rhythm Hill and the offense were able to establish last week was crucial for that win. Typically, three-and-outs tend to stack up for the Iowa offense. The play-calling and drive consistency eliminated that a week ago. If successful again this week, it has a chance to be even more productive against a weaker secondary. Illinois’ front seven is physical and will create problems in the run game. Iowa needs to find similar consistency through the air against Illinois that it did against Rutgers.
Get Set for Iowa vs. Illinois, Prediction
Illinois beat Iowa last season for the first time since 2008. The final score of 9-6 was indicative of both the defensive performances and the struggling offenses. A score that low is unlikely this week, especially with the prolific passing attack of Illinois against a nicked Iowa secondary. Illinois will move the football and score some points, it is a matter of how Phil Parker schemes up the secondary to limit Illinois’ potential. For Iowa, it needs to keep the consistency rolling in the passing game. The opponent presents an opportunity to do so, and a win would send the Hawkeyes back to Indianapolis for the second time in three seasons.
Prediction
Iowa – 20
Illinois – 14
