The College Football Playoff Committee released its rankings on Tuesday night. Georiga made the biggest move, overtaking Ohio State to earn the #1 ranking in the country. Georgia is coming off a big weekend that saw them dismantle then #9 Ole Miss 52-27. Although the playoff won’t expand until next season, the competition for the four playoff spots is heating up among teams from five major conferences. Sorry, Cinderella, the Group of Five will be left out as James Madison sits in NCAA Purgatory. The next three weeks will preview what an “expanded” playoff will look like. The challenge now is figuring out who will be left out, and upcoming key games will play a crucial role in providing some clarity as we head into the season’s final stretch.
College Football Playoff “Expansion”: Elimination Games
#1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama (December 2)
Georgia and Alabama each locked up their spot atop their respective divisions. The two will meet on December 2nd in the SEC Championship game. Unlike in 2017 or 2021, there will likely be no consolation spot for the loser of this matchup. Georgia has the cleanest path to the likely top spot in the ranking. Finishing the season undefeated and riding a 31-game winning streak. An Alabama win over Georiga likely earns them a #1 or #2 seed in the Playoff ranking. Some will point to an early loss to Texas, but this team is different. A win against top-seeded Georgia would make it difficult for the committee to leave them out. Just beware of Jordan-Hare in two weeks. Nick Saban is 4-4 against Auburn as the Tide’s coach.
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Michigan (November 25th)
Expect plenty of drama when Michigan and Ohio State face off in Ann Arbor. Michigan, aiming for a third consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff, has won the last two games in the series. NCAA investigations and the Connor Stalions controversy have clouded 2023. The Wolverines have turned it into motivation, fostering a sense of unity with a “Michigan vs. Everyone” mentality.
Conversely, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are desperate for a win. Despite narrowly missing out on a potential national championship in their tight game against Georgia, the season was ultimately disappointing for the fanbase. The Wolverines seem to have a psychological advantage over Day. To secure a playoff spot and get Michigan out of its head, the dynamic play of Marvin Harrison Jr. will be crucial for the Buckeyes.
A victory for either team solidifies a spot in the top two. If chaos ensues in other conferences, there’s a chance the Big Ten could see two teams in the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Prepare for a showdown with playoff implications and the potential for a Big Ten double representation.
#6 Oregon vs. #5 Washington (December 2?)
It’s been a bittersweet season for the Pac-12 in 2023. Most teams are jumping ship for the Big Ten and Big 12, leaving Oregon State and Washington State holding the bag. Surprisingly, it looks like the two teams from the Pacific Northwest might grab a College Football Playoff spot and contend for the Heisman Trophy, outshining the team from SoCal.
Washington and Oregon have two dynamic young coaches and quarterbacks ready to lead them to a potential national championship. The two teams played an epic game in mid-October and seem destined to meet again in the Pac-12 Championship in Las Vegas. Beware of Karma; both teams still have to face Oregon State, and Washington will also play Washington State in the Apple Cup to close the season.
#7 Texas vs. 4th Quarter Collapses
Texas’s victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa during week two is a standout achievement in the country. The Longhorns have demonstrated significant growth and maturity in their third year under coach Steve Sarkisian. With quarterback Quinn Ewers back in the lineup, he’s expected to stay and aid Texas’s transition to the SEC in 2024.
However, two key challenges prevent Texas from securing a spot in the College Football Playoff. Firstly, the rest of the Big 12 lacks a strong contender. Despite Oklahoma’s win over the Longhorns, they’ve stumbled with consecutive losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Additionally, Texas’s 4th quarter defensive struggles have put them on thin ice. It cost them the game against Oklahoma, and they’ve narrowly escaped losses in recent weeks against Kansas State and TCU. Despite the victory over Alabama, a one-loss Texas might find themselves on the outside looking in if the Pac-12 or Florida State doesn’t stumble.
#4 Florida State vs. ACC Optics
Florida State is currently leading the charge for the ACC, but it’s not the same powerhouse team or conference we saw under Bobby Bowden. The Seminoles and the ACC as a whole lack the prestige they once held. While Florida State remains undefeated, there’s a scenario where they might miss out on a playoff spot come selection Sunday.
Their resume will likely boast two wins against SEC teams, which would be a clear ticket to the playoffs in most years. However, this season, Florida and LSU are not the formidable opponents they typically are. The ACC Championship against Louisville could prove challenging, but the overall strength of the ACC at the top end of the rankings is lacking.
Much like Texas, Florida State can’t afford a loss, and even with an unblemished record, they may still find themselves on the outside looking in on selection Sunday. The path to the playoffs is riddled with challenges, and Florida State needs to navigate them strategically to secure a spot.
