The Big Ten West is in full control of the Iowa Hawkeyes after last week’s finishes across the division. Saturday is the final cross-division matchup for Iowa as Greg Schiano’s Rutgers Scarlet Knights travel to Iowa City. Iowa is 3-0 against the Scarlet Knights during their time in the Big Ten. But this year’s Rutgers team is different. It is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2014 and has a chance to do something on Saturday that it’s never done before in Big Ten conference play.
The Opponent
Kyle Monangai is the Big Ten’s leading rusher this season with 900 yards and seven touchdowns. He passed the 100-yard mark in each of his last three games getting 24 attempts in each game. Monangai’s season high came against Ohio State last week where he tallied 159 yards, averaging 6.6 per carry. The Scarlet Knights had over 230 yards on the ground against one of the nation’s top defenses last week at home. Not only that, it out-gained Ohio State, had seven more first downs than Ohio State, and held onto the ball for nearly 36 minutes of game time. This is not the Rutgers of the late 2010s.
On the other side of the ball, Rutgers is 11th nationally in total defense. It allows just 284 yards per game this season. Iowa has gained more than 284 yards just two times in nine games this season. Aaron Lewis is the Scarlet Knights’ best pass rusher, getting 27 pressures this season. He’s also recorded five tackles for loss on the year and three sacks. At linebacker, Mohamed Toure had eight tackles against the Buckeyes, including a sack and a tackle for loss. Rutgers’ defensive front is among the best in the nation. The group is going to get pressure on Iowa and, without the threat of a passing attack, continue to put Iowa’s ineptitude on full display.
How Iowa Will Win
Like most weeks, there are only three ways Iowa will be able to win this game. Two of those ways are from production on defense and special teams. The other is in the rare, but effective, big play on offense. Iowa’s wins against Purdue and Wisconsin featured long-running plays for touchdowns. It was a 67-yard rush for a score against Purdue and an 82-yard rushing touchdown in Madison. Both were the difference in the game. Last week inside Wrigley Field, it was a 23-yard pass late in the game that set up the game-winning field goal. There’s always a chance that a big play touchdown will happen again this week. However, it’s just not a repeatable metric for Iowa to rely on.
Instead, it will be the Iowa defense that will have to make a play against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights’ quarterback Gavin Wimsatt is among the least accurate quarterbacks in the nation. Wimsatt has thrown three game-defining pick-sixes this season. The first was against Michigan. Rutgers was inside the Wolverine 30-yard line, and a touchdown would have brought the game within three points. Instead, a pick-six made it a three-score deficit. Against Wisconsin, Rutgers had first and goal, looking to cut their deficit to 10-7. Wimsatt threw a pick-six to make it a three-score game. Last week against Ohio State, Rutgers had the lead in the third quarter in the Buckeye red zone. Wimsatt’s pick-six flipped the game and the Scarlet Knights never regained the lead.
Wimsatt’s opponent on Saturday is one of the best defenses in the nation. Iowa has eight interceptions this year including one pick-six. The group has 14 pass breakups and has been within the top 15 in passing defense all season. If Phil Parker can take away the threat of Rutgers’ run game, there is a high likelihood of a turnover for a touchdown or a turnover that sets up the offense for points. In a matchup like this one, a key turnover is going to be the difference.
How Rutgers Will Win
For the Scarlet Knights, the path to victory is very much in the hands of its offense. Wimsatt needs to take care of the football. He has five interceptions this season and will be faced with a stifling secondary on Saturday. However, Wimsatt is one of the best running quarterbacks to ever play at Rutgers and he has the conference’s top running back next to him in that backfield. Rutgers’ path to a road win at Iowa begins with their running game.
Iowa has allowed just one rushing touchdown on the year. But this week is Iowa’s first true threat against a very mobile quarterback. Wimsatt is Rutgers’ second-leading rusher and has 86 carries this year for 411 yards and seven touchdowns. Rutgers has also been playing their best running the football lately. The Scarlet Knights have run the ball 98 times in the last two games. Both games produced over 230 total rushing yards. On the season, Schiano’s offense has run the ball more than 34 times in seven games this year. Five of those games resulted in north of 230 rushing yards on the day. Given the quarterback struggles and stingy defense it would face, Rutgers is very likely going to take to the ground for most of the day.
Getting You Set: Iowa vs. Rutgers, Prediction
Since joining the Big Ten conference in 2014, Rutgers has yet to beat a Big Ten team that has finished its regular season with a winning record. This season, Rutgers has six wins and none of them have come against a program with a winning record. A victory against Iowa on Saturday would end that streak after close to a decade. Despite the ineptitude of Iowa’s offense, it is tough to win on the road inside Kinnick Stadium. It’s even tougher in the month of November. Kirk Ferentz is 14-3 in November at home since the 2015 season.
This Rutgers team is special, and they have a powerful run game and very physical defense. A win would be their biggest since joining the league in 2014. Iowa already dropped a historic game, ending a 24-year home win streak, against Minnesota a few weeks ago. Rutgers has what it takes to hand Iowa another historic loss on Saturday. But can it make no mistakes against Iowa’s defense? That will be the difference.
Prediction: Iowa: 10 Rutgers: 6
