Once again, Last Word had its pulse on who was going to win Big 12 football games. Moneyline picks went 5-2. But Vegas does such a good job setting those spreads as against the spread went only 3-4. However, last week’s totals also were profitable going 5-2, including the lock in Austin. But with so many big results last week, are the week 11 winners going to include letdowns by some of the leaders in the conference? As always, all lines/totals are reflected in the most common number across multiple sports books at the time of publication.
Week 11 Winners From The Big 12
Season Record ML: 57-23
Season Record ATS: 31-41
Season Record Totals: 38-34
Lock of the Week: 5-2
Texas Tech At #16 Kansas (-3.5)
Fewer teams are hotter in the Big 12 than the Kansas Jayhawks. And while Kansas has been unstoppable at home, the lock of the week 11 winners is with the total. The Jayhawks can’t stop the run, and the Red Raiders have an excellent rushing attack powered by Tahj Brooks. However, the passing attack of the Jayhawks has been elite all year, no matter who the quarterback has been. If Joey McGuire and his team are to spring the upset, they have to throw off the timing in the Kansas passing attack. However, Kansas is just executing too well this year to falter at home.
Moneyline: Kansas ATS: Kansas Total 60.5: Over
Baylor At #25 Kansas State (-20.5)
This one is going to be a bloodbath. The Wildcats, even in their loss last week to Texas, still have found a good rhythm offensively. In their last four games, they have scored 38, 41, 41, and 30. With Baylor’s loss at home to Houston, the Bears have very little to play for. Dave Aranda is likely going to suffer a similar fate that Dana Holgorsen faced traveling up to Manhattan. The Wildcats will run all over the Bears while Baylor is unable to score much (if at all).
Moneyline: Kansas State ATS: Kansas State Total 55.5: Under
#15 Oklahoma State (-2.5) At UCF
We arrive at the first letdown opportunity in the week 11 winners. No one is riding higher this week than Mike Gundy and his Cowboy team. UCF’s lone Big 12 win was only a two-point victory over a Cincinnati team that is winless in the Big 12. So how come the Cowboys are less than a field-goal favorite? Vegas set a line like this against West Virginia making the Knights a touchdown favorite. Last Word leaned into it and it backfired. With a darkhorse Heisman candidate in Ollie Gordon II coming to town, it is hard to even envision a world where Oklahoma State can’t cover a field goal. Expect the Pokes to start slow and this game to be close for a half, but Oklahoma State pulls away in the second half.
Moneyline: Oklahoma State ATS: Oklahoma State Total 64.5: Under
West Virginia (+13.5) At #17 Oklahoma
Will the loss to their in-state rivals be the last pull on the thread to unravel the Sooner’s season? It’s been one month since their last-second Red River victory. Since then, Brent Venables’ team has not looked sharp. They had to hang on against UCF at home before losing two straight games. Meanwhile, West Virginia continues to play with house money and seemingly is getting stronger as the season goes on. It’s hard to see a scenario where Oklahoma magically figures it out against a tough Mountaineers team. The Sooners offense will do enough to escape with a victory, but close to two touchdowns is too many points.
Moneyline: Oklahoma ATS: West Virginia Total 58.5: Under
Cincinnati At Houston (-2.5)
If not now, then the answer is going to be never in 2023 for Cincinnati. The biggest issue facing the Bearcats though is which Houston team will they face. Will it be the team who played Rice, Texas Tech, and Kansas State? Or will it be the Houston team that played UTSA, West Virginia, and Texas? Cincinnati has demonstrated the ability to move the ball, so this game could turn into a bit of a shootout. But until Cincinnati proves they can finish a game, they will not get any benefit of the doubt.
Moneyline: Houston ATS: Houston Total 54.5: Over
#7 Texas At TCU (+10.5)
The next letdown spot from the week 11 winners can be found in Fort Worth. Texas is coming off an emotionally draining overtime victory over Kansas State. Some good news for the Horns came on Thursday when head coach Steve Sarkisian announced Quinn Ewers will start against TCU. While that will help provide a spark offensively, going on the road for TCU’s “Super Bowl” puts the Horns in a tricky spot. The Horned Frogs, even though the offense has been inconsistent at times, still can score a bit. Much like the Oklahoma State game, this game will be within one score at halftime. The defensive line will eventually wear down the TCU offense allowing Texas to prevail in the end. However, TCU keeps it within 10 points.
Moneyline: Texas ATS: TCU Total 53.5: Over
Iowa State (-7.5) At BYU
The week 11 winners wrap up Saturday night in Provo. BYU is in a similar situation to Cincinnati in they are at the least truly winnable game on their schedule. A loss to the Cyclones likely means the Cougars won’t go bowling after a 5-2 start to the season. The issue is that BYU’s offense has been dreadful the last month. Even in a win over Texas Tech, they still only managed 277 yards of offense. In the last two weeks, BYU has scored a combined 13 points. Iowa State’s defense is not a get-right defense either. Even with the backing of the home crowd, Iowa State squashes any BYU offense for a low-scoring victory.
Moneyline: Iowa State ATS: Iowa State Total 41.5: Under
