The Red Raiders resume the last month of their season Thursday night in a battle for the Saddle Trophy against TCU. This game very well could be a bowl season elimination game. On paper, the teams seem very evenly matched. So if a Texas Tech week ten victory is to come to fruition, it’s going to require their offense to show up for all four quarters.
Who Is TCU Exactly?
Sonny Dykes’ team has had quite the ups and downs to their 4-4 record. Everyone saw their week one defeat at the hands of Colorado. But then they quietly won three straight games, averaging 37 points per game. Since then, they have lost three of their last four games. In their three losses, they scored a combined 38 points. But in their lone win against BYU, they scored 44 points. Which TCU team is going to show up? They have been able to move the ball all season. TCU currently averages 464.9 yards per game, which ranks 14th nationally.
But the inconsistency in the recent results can be tied to the quarterback position. Redshirt Freshman Josh Hoover had two very different games in his first two career starts. He earned Big 12 Offense Player of the Week honors in his first career start. However, the very next week he failed to find the endzone against Kansas State. So far, Hoover has completed 59.3% of his passes for 795 yards with a touchdown to interception ratio of 6-5. So will the Hoover from his debut return against the Red Raiders. Or does his play look more like his second performance?
Some Quarterback Good News
TCU isn’t the only one looking for consistent quarterback play. Head coach Joey McGuire has experienced some abnormally bad health at the quarterback position. The Red Raiders are the only FBS school in the country to use three different starting quarterbacks each of the last two seasons. In fact, McGuire has had four different starters at quarterback in his 21 games as the Texas Tech head coach. And while true freshman Jake Strong has filled in admirably, he very clearly wasn’t ready to be a full-time starter. Quarterback Behren Morton has finally been throwing in practice again. McGuire said during the bye week that Morton would be starting in the Texas Tech week ten showdown against TCU.
Red Raider Defense Owns The Second Half
One thing that has been lost in this underwhelming 2023 season for the Red Raiders has been the second-half efforts by their defense. In three of their five Big 12 games, Texas Tech has surrendered seven points or less in the second half. The Red Raiders are only yielding 8.4 points per game over the final 30 minutes to Big 12 opponents this season. Removing the 21 points that Kansas State scored in their second-half win over the Red Raiders, that average second-half point total drops down to 5.25. Whatever Tim DeRuyter is telling his defensive unit at halftime is clearly working. However, there is a pretty big reason why these dominant defensive efforts are getting overlooked.
Offense Needs To Match Defensive Second Half Execution
The Red Raider offense has yet to sign up for 60 minutes of football in Big 12 play (sans the Baylor game). Even with a 22-point second half against Baylor, Zach Kittley’s offense is only averaging 12 points in the second half of their Big 12 games. Quarterback health, or lack thereof, is well documented. But there has to be more than simply who is taking snaps. Especially considering that running back Tahj Brooks has been a revelation in the backfield. And for all the criticism Kittley has received about not getting the ball to Brooks more (some of which is justifiable), he still has had a minimum of 19 touches on offense in six consecutive games. So where is the breakdown?
This Texas Tech week ten showdown will all depend on how well the offense can protect the football. The Red Raiders rank 123rd nationally in turnover margin at -1.00. While the defense could cause more turnovers, it is the offense that is driving that turnover margin into the negative. Texas Tech has turned the ball over 16 times this season, which is tied for 113th worst nationally.
They also are only converting 42.1% of 3rd downs (tied for 51st nationally). Now, they have not dialed back the aggressiveness. They are tied fifth nationally in 4th down conversion attempts with 27. So this makes their 66.7% 4th down conversion that much more impressive (tied for 23rd nationally). But the net return of these fourth down conversions has not been close to the same net gains as in 2022.
Texas Tech Week Ten Prediction
TCU has beaten Texas Tech in the last four meetings. The Red Raiders have not beaten the Horned Frogs in Lubbock since 2013. However, this is the last stand for Texas Tech. While the outlook to get back to bowl season looks like a long shot, the expectation should still be to defend the home field. TCU was slumping offensively before Hoover took over. Expect the Red Raiders to finally see a complete team effort for all four quarters for the first time in a few weeks and find the win column.
Texas Tech 31, TCU 28
