The Texas Tech week eight includes a first for the Red Raiders. They will make their first-ever trip to the state of Utah on Saturday. Both Texas Tech and BYU are coming off deflating losses. BYU is looking for their first Big 12 win over the legacy members. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders are trying to keep this season from diving into the deep end of the disaster pool. The good news for Texas Tech? They know the key to success; they just can’t forget it.
Defense Should Have a Big Day
By any standard, traditional or advanced, the BYU offense is not very good. They rank tied for 75th in scoring offense (27.7 points per game) and 121st in total offense (306.0 yards per game). Their EPA (expected points added) is -0.079 which is 124th nationally. The Cougars are only converting 34.1% of their third and fourth downs, which is 117th nationally. BYU quarterback Kedon Slovis is only completing 56.8% of his passes. Texas Tech defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter should expect a big day from his defense.
One of his linebackers, Ben Roberts, continues to excel. Among freshmen nationally, Roberts ranks second with 56 total tackles this season. He also ranks third in tackles per game with eight. Roberts leads all Big 12 freshmen in both categories. In addition to playing at a high level compared to other freshmen, he also ranks fifth overall in the conference for total tackles per game. It also could be another game in which Steve Linton could take over like he did against Baylor when he finished the game with three sacks.
Stick With What Has Worked
Texas Tech has one of the best running backs in the country. Tahj Brooks ranks fifth in the FBS with 786 rushing yards and sixth in rushing yards per game (112.3). He is averaging 6.0 yards per rushing attempt. On paper, it appears like Brooks should feast this week. BYU’s rushing defense yields 149.8 yards per game, which ranks them 80th nationally. For the advanced statistical brains out there, the Cougars rank 132nd in defensive success rate against the run at just 28.5%. However, offensive coordinator Zach Kittley has received major criticism multiple times this year for seemingly forgetting about his best player.
It happened at the end of the West Virginia game. Now, when Last Word and others called for Brooks to see the ball more against Houston, the staff heard the message and it led to a victory against Houston. The staff kept feeding Brooks with 31 carries in a victory over Baylor. But then, last week with a true freshman third-string quarterback coming in during the second half against Kansas State, Joey McGuire and Kittley just stopped giving Brooks the ball. With this being now the second time the staff got away from what has clearly worked all year, they should not complicate the offense. Especially with Behern Morton being a game-time decision. Whether it is to help Morton take fewer hits, or for Jake Strong to be asked to do less, Brooks has to touch the ball at least 25 times for a Texas Tech week eight victory to come to fruition.
Texas Tech Week Eight Prediction
Yes, Texas Tech is banged up. They had 11 players with at least one career start that were unavailable for the Kansas State game last week. But most teams are not healthy at this point in the season. BYU, like many teams, is a tougher team at home than on the road. Texas Tech also has done zero to get any benefit of the doubt. However, the Red Raider coaching staff heard the noise about their failures last week. It would be very shocking, especially if Strong is the starting quarterback, for Brooks not to be the focal point for all four quarters. One of the best running backs in the nation should have one of his best games of the season as the Red Raiders grind out a much-needed victory heading into the bye week.
Texas Tech 27, BYU 21
