The “BU-TT” bowl has an opportunity to become the Mustard and Ketchup bowl on Saturday. Baylor has already announced it is doing its annual “Gold Out” game against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech should make a move, most famously done by USC-UCLA, and wear their red-on-red uniforms. Regardless of the jersey selection, Joey McGuire finds his team at a pivotal point in the season. A Texas Tech week six win would put the Red Raiders at .500 for the first half of the season. But a loss could send this season down the drain. So what do the Red Raiders need to focus on to secure a victory against the Bears?
Who Is Baylor?
What does anyone really know about Dave Aranda’s team so far? After five games, typically we have a good sense of any team. But this team lost starting quarterback Blake Shapen in week one with him returning last week against UCF. And while the comeback was historic, why did they struggle for three quarters against a team playing its first season of Power Five football? Here is what we do know. This is a very young Baylor team.
They have had 20 freshmen see significant playing time this season. In the year’s first three games, Baylor has had 19 players make their starting debuts. For those wondering if that is high or low, six players made their Bears starting debuts in the same time frame in 2021 and nine in 2022. Also, there is a decent chance that when the season is over, the autopsy will reveal Baylor played the second-hardest schedule of all Big 12 teams. So far this season, their three losses have come against teams with a combined 13-2 record. Utah is ranked in the top 20 and Texas ranked No. 3. Oh by the way, a possible Sun Belt contender in Texas State. So could Baylor’s offensive struggles simply be chalked up to youth and quality of opponents? How they perform against Texas Tech will reveal the truth in either direction.
Did the Red Raiders Find the Formula?
Last week in a game that felt like Texas Tech had to win, the ground game was an unstoppable force against Houston. Texas Tech rushed for 239 yards and three touchdowns as a team versus Houston. Tahj Brooks and Cam’Ron Valdez achieved something that has only happened two other times in program history. Their performance against Houston was the third time the Red Raiders had two different players each record a 100-yard rushing in a game. Brooks, who has hit the 100-yard mark each of the past three weeks, is currently 10th nationally in rushing yards. The Red Raiders as a team are averaging 177.4 rushing yards per game. Baylor should expect Texas Tech offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to continue to feed Brooks as the Bears are currently yielding an average of 184 rushing yards, which is ranked 113th nationally.
The Red Raider defense appears to dial in their game plans, specifically in the second half of games. In the last three games, Texas Tech has allowed 10 second-half points. With a second-half shutout against Houston, it was their first time to pitch a clean second-half sheet versus a Big 12 team since Oklahoma State in 2018. One of the revelations on the defensive side of the ball has been by redshirt freshman Ben Roberts. Since moving into a starting linebacker role against Oregon, he has recorded double-digit tackles in three of the last four games. He currently leads the team with 38 stops. He will need to continue his high level of play to keep down a Baylor team that had its way against the Red Raiders a season ago.
No Five’s This Time
High fives are awesome. What is not awesome is five interceptions. Last year’s matchup was a 45-17 Baylor smackdown in Lubbock with Patrick Mahomes in attendance to get inducted into the Texas Tech Ring of Honor. Quarterback Behren Morton started that game and looked bad. He was only 11-for-34 passing and three interceptions. The Red Raiders also had Donovan Smith and Tyler Shough attempt passing in this game. In the combined four passing attempts between Smith and Shough, they threw two interceptions. It’s a cliche to state that winning the turnover battle is critical. But, if a Texas Tech week six is to come to fruition, they cannot give Baylor short fields for their offense to work from. And this isn’t about winning the overall turnover battle. The offense being in control and forcing Baylor to stop them is the recipe for success.
Texas Tech Week Six Prediction
Baylor has won four of the last five meetings. This also is McGuire’s first return to Waco where he served in a variety of roles at Baylor from 2017-2021. It also marks the first time Texas Tech will play a night game in Waco since 1999. Both of these teams are trying to salvage their season. Both have gotten off to starts well below expectations. The Waco faithful should be charged up for a very winnable game for both of these teams. However, the Bears do not have an answer for Brooks. He will give their defense headaches, leading to great opportunities for Morton to make high-percentage throws. Shapen will give the Red Raider defense some problems as well. But Texas Tech will control the game throughout and the final score will not be reflective of how one-sided the game actually was.
Texas Tech 35, Baylor 31
