It’s not a big surprise (given all the FBS/FCS matchups) that after going 12-2 on the Moneyline last week pushed Last Word’s overall winning percentage to 84.61%. However, where we really look to make money (against the spread and totals), we have yet to have a profitable week. Against the spread, picks were only 4-7 in week two, including an all-time bad beat in the Texas Tech and Oregon game. Looking back at the week two winners, there were lots of potential high-scoring affairs that just failed to see the offenses really take off. As a result, the totals couldn’t crack the profitable side at 5-6. But the week three winners will push everyone back into the green! All lines/totals are reflected in the most common number across multiple sports books.
Week Three Winners From The Big 12
Season Record ML: 22-6
Season Record ATS: 7-13
Season Record Totals: 9-11
#15 Kansas State (-4.5) at Missouri
In what we will call the Border War Light match-up, Kansas State looks to keep its early season momentum going against an SEC foe. Last season, the Wildcats destroyed the Tigers by a score of 40-12. Chris Klieman’s team is in the business of bludgeoning its opponents with their ground attack. It starts with a very experienced offensive line that is led by the conference’s best offensive lineman. Expect a similar performance to the 2022 game.
Moneyline: Kansas State ATS: Kansas State Total 49.5: Over
Long Island at Baylor
Baylor is desperate to get its first win of the season. This team played well at home against a physical Utah squad but came just short. Baylor head coach Dave Aranda suddenly found his seat to be much warmer than it was two weeks ago. Aranda by no means is in any real danger of losing his job, and this game won’t tell us anything. But Baylor fans, just like another Big 12 fan base, just want to see that first win of the season.
Moneyline: Baylor ATS: N/A Total: N/A
Iowa State (-2.5) at Ohio
Without any background, less than a field goal spread between a Big 12 team and a MAC team raises plenty of eyebrows amongst the week three winners. Especially because when these teams met last year, Iowa State handled this same Ohio team by a score of 43-10. But digging a little deeper, and the number doesn’t seem so odd. First of all, even with last year’s win over Ohio, the Bobcats won 10 games. Second, it’s a Big 12 team going to play in Athens, Ohio. Specifically, this Big 12 team appears to be allergic to offense (again). The Bobcats have yet to surrender more than 20 points in three games this season. In a rock fight, Iowa State will do enough to cover and win but expect it to be low-scoring.
Moneyline: Iowa State ATS: Iowa State Total 44.5: Under
#19 Oklahoma (-27.5) at Tulsa
Tulsa has played a team with a pulse this year (Washington) and it did not go well. This in-state matchup should see the Oklahoma offense wake up a bit coming off a victory over SMU where they only scored 28 points. Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables had to answer questions concerning an incident after the game with one of his coordinators and his father-in-law. Will it become a distraction moving forward? It’s unlikely given statements from the athletic director (if Jeff Lebby is interested in keeping his job). It will be interesting to see if it arises again this year, but it won’t likely impact Oklahoma’s performance in this game.
Moneyline: Oklahoma ATS: Oklahoma Total 60.5: Over
Villanova at UCF
The Knights squeaked one out with a last-second field goal last week against Boise State. However, quarterback John Rhys Plumlee left the game with an injured leg that will now keep him sidelined for “a few weeks.” It shouldn’t have any impact on Gus Malzahn’s team this week though. This should be a nice tune-up for quarterback Timmy Mcclain before Big 12 play begins.
Moneyline: UCF ATS: N/A Total: N/A
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati (-14.5)
One of the surprising starts of the 2023 season is courtesy of the Cincinnati Bearcats. Year one of Scott Satterfield has been promising. Quarterback Emory Jones, a two-time transfer from Florida and Arizona State, has started the season with nine total touchdowns and just one interception. This team is quietly building momentum out of the gate. They should continue to do so with the RedHawks coming to town before they open Big 12 play against Oklahoma.
Moneyline: Cincinnati ATS: Cincinnati Total 46.5: Over
South Alabama (+7.5) at Oklahoma State
Here is the upset special out of the week three winners. Oklahoma State has not been very impressive in their 2-0 start. South Alabama is on a short list of teams expected to compete for the Sun Belt championship this year. In addition, Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy isn’t a complete stranger to seeing his Pokes drop a home game against a Group of Five opponent. The Big 12 has already had its fair share of teams losing to G5 opponents and Oklahoma State becomes the latest victim in a low-scoring game.
Moneyline: South Alabama ATS: South Alabama Total 48.5: Under
Tarleton State at Texas Tech
Just like Baylor, the Red Raiders are desperate for their first victory of the season. Texas Tech is getting an FCS opponent at home that could be the start of them getting the train back on the tracks for Big 12 play. With Baylor playing earlier in the day, the Red Raiders will ensure there are no longer any winless teams in the conference by day’s end.
Moneyline: Texas Tech ATS: N/A Total: N/A
BYU at Arkansas (-8.5)
BYU has not been tested so far this season. A road trip to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs will certainly be a stiff test. Last year when Arkansas came up to Provo, Arkansas controlled the game from start to finish in a 52-35 shootout. BYU has not shown any reason so far this season to suggest this game will be any different as the Cougars drop their first game of the season.
Moneyline: Arkansas ATS: Arkansas Total 47.5: Under
Pitt at West Virginia (+1.5)
It’s good to see the Backyard Brawl back, especially after last year’s thriller in Pittsburgh. The Panthers are coming into Morgantown after an uninspiring performance against Cincanti, which resulted in a Pitt loss. West Virginia showed against Penn State that is can be prickly for any team. Neal Brown really needs a win if he has any hope of saving his job. The Mountaineers can run the ball a little bit better than the Panthers and that is the difference in this one.
Moneyline: West Virginia ATS: West Virginia Total 50.5: Under
Wyoming (+28.5) at #4 Texas
Can Wyoming grab first place in the Big 12 standings with a second win against a team from Texas? Out of all the week three winners, Wyoming has the opportunity to do the funniest thing possibly of the entire college football season. Texas is riding high after a major victory against Alabama and has heard plenty of people declare Texas is actually back. The Cowboys are a physical team that wants to grind this game down and keep the pace down. Even in a real letdown spot for the Longhorns, they will never let this one be in doubt. But a late garbage time score by Wyoming is the difference in covering four touchdowns.
Moneyline: Texas ATS: Wyoming Total 48.5: Over
TCU at Houston (+7.5)
Houston has two data points that are wildly different. They played a defensive game against a very good UTSA team and won. The very next week, it falls behind 28-0 to its in-city rival before losing in double overtime. TCU is a better team than what they displayed in week one. However, Houston continues its volatile season with an outstanding performance by quarterback Donovan Smith and springs the upset against the Horned Frogs.
Moneyline: Houston ATS: Houston Total 63.5: Over
Kansas (-27.5) at Nevada
The last of the week three winners have the Jayhawks flying west to take on a down Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack has only scored 20 total points in two games (with one of those games coming against Idaho). Early signs point to the Kansas offense being explosive and fun again with Jalon Daniels back orchestrating the attack. Kansas will jump out early against Nevada and pull their foot off the gas pedal in the second half keeping this game from crossing the 60-point total.
Moneyline: Kansas ATS: Kansas Total 59.5: Under
Photo courtesy: SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
