Our pre-season coverage for the West Virginia Mountaineers ends now. After the long off-season, we finally shifted into in-season coverage. Our Penn State writer, Maggie Yarnell, offered her take on the Mountaineers’ season opener in Happy Valley. Now, we look at the contest from WVU’s perspective by asking, “Are the Mountaineers ready for Happy Valley?”.
Are the Mountaineers Ready for Happy Valley?
We wrote plenty last season and this Summer about West Virginia’s string of mediocre to bad seasons since Head Coach Neal Brown‘s arrival. We make no secret that we believe there is a problem in Morgantown. Rightfully so, Brown and his 2023 Mountaineers do not want to focus on the past. Instead, they march into this season with a fresh perspective. One way they could start answering the problems with WVU football would be to start the season with a win against a former geographical rival, something they could not pull off in Pittsburgh last year. But are the Mountaineers ready for Happy Valley?
Make no mistake, Beaver Stadium is a much harder place to play a season opener than Heinz (er, Acrisure Stadium). While fans will not give the Mountaineers the White Out treatment, they will certainly come out in full force. The Nittany Lions have not lost a home opener in a non-COVID year since 2012. Simply, Happy Valley offers one of the toughest road environments in the country.
What the Nittany Lions Bring to the Table
Penn State enters the season ranked seventh in the country, losing just two games last season and ending with a Rose Bowl win against future Big 12 member Utah. Led by a menacing defense, the Nittany Lions ranked tenth in the nation by surrendering just 18 points per game a season ago. While they lost plenty to the NFL draft, that defense still returns seven, including three who finished as All-Conference second and third-team honorees in 2022.
Penn State’s strength lies in its rushing defense, as they gave up just three yards per carry in 2022, with opposing teams averaging just over 110 yards per game. The secondary suffers the loss of Joey Porter, Jr., and Ji’Ayir Brown, so they may have a bit of a soft spot here, at least to begin the 2023 campaign. The passing defense was beatable, as they finished 36th in the country by yielding 211 passing yards a game. That said, the Nittany Lions gambled big on disruption and finished eighth in the country with over three sacks per game.
Perhaps this explains why they might have given up a few extra yards in the air but still held opposing teams to less than a passing touchdown per game. West Virginia fans, of all people, might understand that bend-don’t-break passing defense from the days when Tony Gibson was their defensive coordinator. Did we mention that Penn State also had the sixth-best turnover margin last season? They certainly found ways to make big defensive plays when needed.
Offensively, Penn State breaks in new starter Drew Allar but returns four of five starters on the offensive line. They also return bruising back Kaytron Allen. In limited time, Allar did not make too many mistakes, and an offensive line that is mostly familiar should help keep it that way.
How the Mountaineers Can Win
We will put this out there early. Penn State enters the season open as 20.5-point favorites. The money line in favor of the Mountaineers is +800. Suffice it to say, that Penn State is the heavy favorite. We do not expect West Virginia to pull off the upset. That said, there is a game script that could work in their favor if they can execute.
Dominate the Line of Scrimmage
Penn State surrendered over 200 rushing yards just once last season, to Michigan, who rolled for over 400 yards on the ground. The Mountaineers’ five wins last season featured over 200 rushing yards in every game. The offensive line returns thousands of snap counts, and they are familiar with one another. West Virginia’s ground attack features a dual-threat quarterback, a guy named CJ Donaldson, and plenty of other guys who can pound the rock. The task will not be easy against a Nittany Lions squad that dominated against the run a season ago. If they can catch the newly-minted starters off guard and rip off some explosive plays behind their veteran offensive line, West Virginia might just be able to keep the game close down the stretch.
Prove Greene Has an Arm
Until proven otherwise, opposing coaches will view Garrett Greene not as a dual-threat quarterback but as a one-dimensional run-first quarterback. Mountaineer fans should know a little better. Greene has a cannon. One of the best ways to catch Penn State off guard would be to feature than cannon early and often. Utilize the new weapons, including Kole Taylor, and keep the defense honest. Test the new members of their secondary, and see if the defense proves as opportunistic without Porter as they were last season.
If they can build some momentum in the first half with an aerial attack, the Mountaineers can move into clock-control mode with a running attack that can neutralize the pressure Penn State likes to bring (and does bring successfully). Simply, while they no doubt want to run the ball as much as they can, West Virginia cannot afford to be one-dimensional early.
Bait the Newcomer
West Virginia runs a somewhat unorthodox defensive base with its 4-2-5. The defense offers versatility, and it can be hard to read even for experienced quarterbacks. The look allows a team to disguise coverage and pressure in ways that other sets don’t offer. The extra safety (really a hybrid linebacker) creates mismatches. Allar is a good quarterback. But baiting him into a mistake or two early can neutralize the positive turnover margin on which Penn State heavily relies.
Getting into his head early would allow for a positive game script for West Virginia. Indeed, it would afford WVU extra possessions to wear down the Nittany Lion’s defensive line to control the run.
If the Mountaineers can do these things, they can keep the game exciting. If they do not, then an early-season blowout will deflate an already-pessimistic fanbase. That could spell disaster down the road. Moral victories do not exist. That said, there is a difference in tone between a lopsided defeat and a closely fought battle. We anticipate an opening-season loss for the Mountaineers, but if we see a closely-fought battle, it will tell us plenty about the team’s prospects for the rest of the 2023 season. Which outcome we witness depends on this question. Are the Mountaineers ready for Happy Valley?
