Just picture it; America celebrates its Independence Day. And as everyone comes out of their hot dog and firework-induced comas, college football’s talkin’ season will be upon us. Big 12 Media Days are scheduled for July 12th and 13th with plenty of storylines to examine. But before we hear from the teams, let’s take a look at the 2023 Big 12 win totals Vegas has put out for all 14 teams. Last year, Last Word had a pretty good read on the totals, finishing the year going 7-3 on our preseason picks. The totals reflect the most commonly found totals across multiple sports books.
2023 Big 12 Win Totals
Baylor – 7.5 Wins
Let’s get really complicated to start. What is Baylor? Ever since Dave Aranda took over, they have had an authentic roller coaster experience. 2-7 in year one, 12-2 in year two, and 6-7 in year three. Quarterback Blake Shapen was supposed to elevate the passing attack in 2022. He had plenty of flashes that displayed his arm talent, but lack consistency. With Texas State, Utah, and Long Island all coming to Waco in the non-conference play, a likely 2-1 start is in store for the Bears. Baylor has eight home games this season, but get to travel to two of the new Big 12 member location (Orlando and Cincinnati). Asking Baylor to go a minimum of 6-3 is just going to be too much. The Bears should be a tough out, but fall just short of eight wins. The Pick: Under
BYU – 5.5 Wins
From a scheduling standpoint, BYU is the most ready to make the jump to a full Power Five schedule. The previously independent Cougars had played a minimum of four Power Five opponents (excluding 2020) in the last four seasons mixed in with Mountain West and American opponents. Coming off of an eight-win campaign in 2022, head coach Kalani Sitake is going to be in for his steepest challenge yet. The Cougars open against new C-USA opponent Sam Houston and have a trip to Arkansas mixed in during non-conference play. Road trips to Texas, Oklahoma State, and TCU mixed in with visits from Texas Tech, Oklahoma offer zero relief for BYU. The Cougars should adjust quickly to Big 12 play, but this year will offer more resistance than in previous seasons. The Pick: Under
Cincinnati – 5.5 Wins
Just how far will Cincinnati fall after making it to the college football playoff in 2021? A 9-4 campaign in Luke Fickell’s final season felt like a major drop back. But in reality, nine wins is just behind what they had been doing the last five seasons. With Fickell off to Wisconsin, Scott Satterfield comes over from Louisville to guide the Bearcats in Big 12 play. The schedule sets up pretty nicely for the Bearcats as they give Houston, West Virginia, and Iowa State in conference play. Their toughest opponents come to Nippert Stadium and there is still enough talent for this team to go bowling. When it comes to the 2023 Big 12 win totals, this number appears to be low enough for a trap. But maybe we can get the cheese before the trap closes shut. The Pick: Over
Houston – 4.5 Wins
The good news for Houston is they only have to leave the state of Texas two times. And while the non-conference schedule could be tricky (UTSA, Rice, and Sam Houston), Dana Holgorsen knows as well as anyone what this team will need to do in order to be successful in the Big 12. Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith knows these opponents well and should provide a spark to this Cougar team. This is another of the 2023 Big 12 win total that has Last Word asking “What does Vegas know?” But with Houston getting their one shot against Texas in Houston (which they won’t waste), this team will find a way to get to five wins this year. The Pick: Over
Iowa State – 5.5 Wins
It was in Ames, Iowa where the best 2022 Big 12 defense was found. Unfortunately, it was also home to the worst offense in the Big 12. Is this just a case of Iowa State…becoming Iowa State again? Head coach Matt Campbell’s name has cooled off significantly in the past two seasons. But this seems like an excellent spot to “buy low” on the Cyclones. Last year, they lost six of eight games by one score, and another against Oklahoma that essentially was a one-score game until a garbage time score by the Sooners. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers should clean up the turnovers. With another outstanding defensive unit, the Cyclones have those one-score games flip to their advantage and get back to a bowl game. The Pick: Over
Kansas – 6 Wins
Everyone throws away your Kansas joke books. They have a very competitive football team now. The Jayhawks also include the best returning quarterback in the Big 12. And, in Lance Leipold’s third season as the head coach, the Jayhawks will look even better. However, there is a very good chance that this team was slightly ahead of schedule last season. Finding seven wins on a schedule that includes Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas State is too tall of an ask. Don’t run for cover Jayhawk nation. Just understand the wins might not see any change from last year. The Pick: Under
Kansas State – 8 Wins
This number seems like free money. Excluding 2020, the Wildcats have won at least eight games in every season Chris Klieman has been the head coach. Sure, the ‘Cats only have 63% of their total production back. But the defending Big 12 champs only losses last year were to the Cotton Bowl champion (Tulane), the national champion runner-up (TCU in the regular season), the Sugar Bowl champion (Alabama), and a Texas team that finished 23rd in the final AP poll last year. Expect quarterback Will Howard to improve and have Kanas State primed to defend their conference title. The pick: Over
Oklahoma – 9.5 Wins
College football is filled with plenty of logical people, right? So it stands to reason to think that a Brent Venables-coached team HAS to be better defensively in year two. Not to mention, quarterback Dillon Gabriel is back and healthy. The depth of the quarterback position also got addressed in the transfer portal. Afterall, everyone witnessed Red River last year. Unless something goes wrong, the Sooners should be 5-0 going into Red River this year. But to feel confident that this team could get to 10 wins after last season is a bridge too far. The Sooners will adjust better to the SEC than Texas, but they still need one more year to get there from a roster standpoint. The pick: Under
Oklahoma State – 6.5 Wins
In Mike Gundy’s 18 seasons as the head coach, the Cowboys have not cleared this regular season total only five times. The last of which occurred in 2018. But did it get ugly last year. After starting 5-0, the ‘Pokes finished 2-6 down the stretch. No doubt the injury bug hit this team hard last year, but they looked unprepared at times. That said, even with the departure of quarterback Spencer Sanders, Gundy has rightfully earned the benefit of the doubt. They have a very manageable schedule (no Texas and all four of the newcomers) and a transfer quarterback in Alan Bowman who is very familiar with Big 12 play. This one should cover pretty easily. The pick: Over
TCU – 7.5 Wins
TCU fans better have soaked up 2022 to the very last drop. It was a magical season that will never be forgotten. But here comes 2023 with a heavy dose of reality. Following up last year’s playoff run with an eight-win season would be a major success. It’s hard to duplicate that type of success in just year two of a new head coach. Even with a manageable non-conference schedule, the Horned Frogs have a gauntlet to end the season. Their last five games are at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, vs Texas, vs Baylor, and at Oklahoma. Trust in Sonny Dykes Horned Frog nation, but this year will be a big step back. The Pick: Under
Texas – 9.5 Wins
Anyone looking at the 2023 Big 12 win totals is likely going to just blindly select the under for the Texas Longhorns. And who could blame them? The last time Texas won at least 10 regular season games was 2009! If one would play out the schedule in a fairly logical stretch, assuming losses to Alabama and Oklahoma would mean the ‘Horns would have to be perfect the other 10 weeks. It is safe to say Texas has far been perfect in the last 13 seasons. But just hear us out. Steve Sarkisian has been doing the slow build. Last season, there wasn’t a “bad loss” like in years past. Not to mention, year two for Quinn Ewers should provide growth and productivity. Texas rightfully should be the favorite to win the Big 12. Anything less than a trip to that game should be viewed as a failure. Expect big things in Austin this year. The pick: Over
Texas Tech – 7.5 Wins
The vibes coming out of Lubbock, Texas have been nothing but positive since Joey McGuire took over the program. Recruiting is at an all-time high and the Red Raiders beat Texas and Oklahoma in the same season for the first time in program history. The Red Raiders have a stiff test in week two as they host the Oregon Ducks. That game could be the launching point for a big season. With major experience on both sides of the ball returning for 2023, expect the Red Raiders to keep trending upwards. This isn’t to crown Texas Tech the 2023 version of TCU from a year ago. But this team will do enough to get to that eight-win total. The Pick: Over
UCF – 6.5 Wins
The Bounce House will be rocking in the Big 12 this year. In fact, the home schedule very easily could be a perfect 6-0 for the Golden Knights in their first season at the Power Five level. They do have tricky road tests (at Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma), but it appears much of the college football world forgot that Gus Malzahn can coach. The mighty Citronauts are no threat to challenge for a conference championship in year one. But expect them to make a strong first impression in the Big 12. The pick: Over
West Virginia – 4.5 Wins
It doesn’t matter what school a coach is employed at; coming into the season on the hot seat and having to play Penn State and Pitt within the first three weeks of the season is not a recipe for success. But that is the situation head coach Neal Brown finds himself. Assuming the 1-2 start in non-conference play, trying to find four Big 12 wins is tough going to be tough sledding for the Mountaineers. Maybe West Virginia fans wouldn’t be terribly upset about cashing an under here because they would get their wish of a new head coach. The pick: Under
Photo courtesy: NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
