The Red Raiders head home this week needing at least two wins in their last three games to become bowl eligible. A Texas Tech week 11 showdown with the Kansas Jayhawks is going to be a stiff challenge. No, college football fan from 4 months ago, that last line was not sarcastic. And that is with Texas Tech showing real progress on the field this year. Kansas head coach Lance Leipold has done an unbelievable job in getting Kansas turned around in only his second season. In order for Texas Tech to defend its home field, the offense needs to find itself again.
Pass Rush Must Get Home
It wouldn’t hurt to get another outstanding defensive performance. The last time we saw this Texas Tech defensive, they made life miserable for Heisman-contending quarterback Max Duggan. In the end, TCU still was able to make a few more plays to secure a 34-24 victory. However, the Red Raider defense finished the game with a total of 10 tackles for loss (season-high against an FBS opponent). It also included a season-high four sacks. Tyree Wilson is currently second in the Big 12 with seven sacks on the season. He has been a one-man wrecking crew up front for this defense. But the keys to a Texas Tech week 11 win over Kansas reside on the other side of the football.
Clearer Picture At Quarterback
Head coach Joey McGuire has already ruled out freshman quarterback Behren Morton for the game this week due to an ankle injury. McGuire also said that Tyler Shough and Donovan Smith would split the first-team reps in practice all this week. Based on how the entire season has gone, early lean suggests Shough will start but Smith will absolutely get into the game. In the last two weeks particularly, offensive coordinator Zach Kittley has struggled to utilize all three quarterbacks.
Teams across college football, this year especially, have seen how valuable a quality QB2 can be. With the transfer portal fully open for players to come and go as they want (which they should have, for the record), keeping a deep quarterback room is one of the more challenging personnel issues coaches now face. Early in the season, it appeared Mcguire and Kittley had a good handle on it. But recently, the offense really has sputtered. There have been some good flashes, but consistency has been lacking. With only two possible options at quarterback, is this the week the offense is able to generate a good pace throughout much of the game?
Where Are The Fireworks?
Currently, Texas Tech is ranked 39th in national scoring. This advertised “high-flying” offense is averaging 32.8 points per game. However, what happens when a 63-point effort against FCS opponent Murray State is removed from that average? That average drops down to 29 points per game against FBS competition. That would put the Red Raiders at 70th nationally in scoring average right next to Air Force. There is a joke in here about Texas Tech and the Air Force unsuccessfully conducting air raid operations. But in all seriousness, how is a team that leads the nation in 4th down attempts and plays run per game essentially scoring the same as a triple-option service academy that has only attempted 73 passes all year?
Meanwhile, Kansas’ scoring average is 37.9 per game. Removing the FCS opponent from the Jayhawks’ schedule drops their average points per game against FBS competition to 35.63. For the Jayhawks, that only drops them 12 spots from the 15th to the 27th. Similarly to the Red Raiders, the Jayhawks have had to deal with multiple quarterbacks running their offense. Sure, it was the result of injuries. But whether it has been Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean, the offense continues to score a ton of points. So the goal is pretty clear; Texas Tech has to find the endzone at least five times. The Red Raider defense can certainly make life troubling for this Jayhawk offense. But it is clear that Kansas will still score some points. All of these plays run by Texas Tech and multiple fourth-down conversations have to result in touchdowns.
Texas Tech Week 11 Prediction
A struggling Red Raider team is looking for answers after losing four of its last five games. No telling if Kansas will have Daniels back this week. He went through pre-game warm-ups last week before being ruled out, suggesting he must be close to a return. In Shough’s limited time as a Red Raider, he has appeared in seven games over the last two seasons. The only time he has thrown for more than one touchdown in a game was against FIU in 2021.
He has yet to attempt more than 25 passes in a game against a power-five opponent since arriving in Lubbock. It very well might be a timeshare at quarterback in this game as well for Texas Tech. Regardless of the QB position, the Red Raiders should keep this close throughout. In the end though, much like the story has been all year, it will come down to one-to-two plays that are the difference. Kansas will continue to build on its massively successful season.
Kansas 35, Texas Tech 31
