Hopes of defending the Big Ten West are still alive heading into the final three weeks of the 2022 season. The November Hawkeyes host Wisconsin in a crucial divisional matchup that could play a role in deciding the West Division. In the event of a Hawkeye victory, Illinois will need to lose two of their next three for Iowa to advance to Indianapolis for the second year in a row. With a loss on Saturday, the path is still there, but it becomes much more difficult to navigate.
Chryst Out, Leonhard Named Interim
Wisconsin comes to Iowa City as winners in three of their last four games with a 5-4 record overall. However, the program made a monumental change at the top following their loss to Illinois on October 2nd. Wisconsin fell to 2-3 overall before getting into the heart of their Big Ten schedule and did away with their two-time Big Ten head coach of the year Paul Chryst. His seven-and-a-half-year tenure in Madison dates back to 2015. In that time, Chryst led the Badgers to a 67-26 overall record and brought his team to three Big Ten title games and one Rose Bowl. Since 2015, and up until Chryst’s firing on October 2nd, Kirk Ferentz had coached the Hawkeyes to a 66-27 overall record. That included two Big Ten title game appearances and one Rose Bowl trip. The two coaches had nearly identical resumes since the 2015 season and were perennial West Division contenders in each of those years.
The Wisconsin athletic department decided that wasn’t good enough. With the changing landscape of college football including the growing use, and importance, of the transfer portal and NIL, it is now more pivotal than ever to have a head coach who is all in on the new shape of the game. Combined with their poor start, Wisconsin didn’t see that potential in Chryst. They moved on.
Former defensive coordinator for the Badgers Jim Leonhard was named the interim head coach. Leonhard played at Wisconsin in the early 2000s and has now taken over the program mid-season. He has since led the Badgers to a 3-1 record. Ferentz coached against Leonhard when he was a defensive back for Wisconsin from 2001 to 2004. Iowa was 3-1 in their four meetings and won the conference twice.
Costly Turnovers
Since 2015, Iowa has turned the ball over 13 times in games against Wisconsin. That’s an average of nearly two per contest. Last year’s three lost fumbles were a huge part of the reason for Wisconsin’s scoring. It ultimately stifled any offensive production for the day. In the seven matchups with Wisconsin since 2015, Iowa’s turnovers have resulted in eight touchdowns and two field goals for the Badgers. The 62 total points off of Iowa turnovers in the last seven years is nearly nine points per game. It has played a major role in deciding the winner in this matchup.
Eliminating turnovers is going to be crucial on Saturday. Wisconsin has a plus-six turnover margin this season, good for third-best in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes have turned the ball over 12 times this season, with six coming in their game against Ohio State. In their last two games against Northwestern and Purdue, they have none. Spencer Petras and the Iowa offense have cleaned up their game and done a great job of taking care of the football. The results have followed. The last time Iowa didn’t turn the ball over at least once against the Badgers was the 2016 season, a game that still ended with a loss. Reclaiming the Heartland Trophy will begin with taking care of the ball, but will also include an effective run game.
Win the Ground Game
Since 2015, the team that has run the ball more effectively has won the Heartland Trophy each time. In that seven-year time frame, Iowa is 2-5 against the Badgers. In the wins in 2015 and 2020, Iowa had the better day on the ground. That will have to be the case again on Saturday.
True freshman running back Kaleb Johnson is off of a career day in West Lafayette. He carried the ball 22 times for 200 yards and a score, earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week and Big Ten Freshman of the Week awards on the same weekend. A huge feat for the 6’-0” 212-pound back. His competition on the other side of the ball is Braelon Allen, a true sophomore who did receive an offer from Iowa in the 2021 recruiting class.
Heading into Saturday’s game, Allen will be nursing a shoulder injury sustained against Purdue three weeks ago. It’s a sprain that he was told by athletic trainers can be played on, despite the pain. Allen has said that he expects it to linger into the remaining games, but he doesn’t anticipate it impacting his playing time. On the season, Allen has 989 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging nearly six yards per carry.
November Hawkeyes Host Wisconsin
November has been a month of success for the Hawkeyes in recent years. Iowa is 9-0 this month dating back through the 2020 season, and 12-1 since 2019. The Hawkeyes’ last loss in the month of November came against Wisconsin on November 9th of 2019. It was a two-point loss that narrowly missed overtime on the heels of an unsuccessful two-point conversion by Iowa at the end of the game. Since that loss, Iowa has won 12 straight in November by an average margin of 13.3 points per game. Petras was the starting quarterback in nine of those 12 games, while Alex Padilla aided in three November victories last season.
Bowl eligibility and a potential repeat appearance in the Big Ten Championship game are riding on another successful November for the Hawkeyes. Last week’s 21-point win got the month started off right. This time, a rivalry trophy is on the line. Going back to 2010, Iowa has just one win against the Badgers at home.
This week, the model makes Iowa a very slight, one-point favorite in the battle for the Heartland Trophy. On a neutral field, the model gives Wisconsin a two-point edge. However, the blackout crowd and Veteran’s Day alternate uniform will create a home-field advantage worth the full three points. On the field, it will come down to execution in the run game and ball protection. Costly turnovers have decimated the Hawkeyes in this rivalry in several instances in years past. If Petras and the offense can take care of the football and have a better performance on the ground, Iowa will be in a strong position to win this football game and keep its divisional championship hopes alive.
